March Madness is here and it’s time to fill out dozens or some people’s cases, hundreds of brackets! After filling out plenty of my own, here are three teams that I think are quality underdog bets to pull out a win in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. All game odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
Santa Clara vs Kentucky (-4.5): O/U 160.5
Mark Pope’s Kentucky team has had an up-and-down season finishing 21-13 and 10-8 in SEC play. The Wildcats started its season 5-4 over the first nine games and 4-6 over the final 10. Kentucky made it to the Sweet 16 in his debut season with the Cats, losing to Tennessee after beating Troy and Illinois as a No. 3 seed. This year, Kentucky has taken a step back to a No. 7 seed.
Santa Clara made the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1996. The Broncos are a well-oiled machine and organized at that. Santa Clara went 26-8 and 15-3 in conference play, recording a 17-4 record since the new year began.
The Broncos force a turnover 20.1% of the time (22nd) and the Wildcats struggled with turning the ball over in SEC play this year with a 15.9% turnover rate (12th out of 16 teams). Kentucky also doesn’t force turnovers (299th) or defensive rebound well (164th). Santa Clara ranks 19th in offensive rebounding percentage and doesn’t rely on free-throws to get buckets (14.2% of points).
The Broncos rank 23rd in offensive efficiency, while the Wildcats are 27th in defensive efficiency, so this should be a battle worth watching. While Santa Clara’s schedule isn’t nearly as difficult as Kentucky’s, they are well-coached and play at an almost identical tempo as Kentucky. I like Santa Clara at +4.5 down to +3 as I think they can win. The Broncos are 3-3-1 ATS and 2-5 on the ML as an underdog, while Kentucky is 17-4 on the ML as a favorite, but 10-11 ATS.
VCU vs North Carolina (-2.5): O/U 154.5
VCU is one of the hottest teams in the nation as they enter the tournament. VCU finished on a six-game winning streak and claimed the A-10 title with a 70-62 win over Dayton. The Rams are 16-1 in the last 17 games and rate as the 39th-best team in the country per Barttorvik in that span. UNC is rated 31st in that same span and these squads play at similar paces.
North Carolina dropped its past two games and has two remedies that I do not like to believe in. The Tar Heels shoot 68.4% from the free-throw line (316th) and force a turnover 13.6% of the time (344th). UNC is 5-3 in the past eight games without star Caleb Wilson and ranks 98th and 189th in offensive and defensive effective field goal percentage in that span.
This season, North Carolina is 19-3 on the ML as a favorite, but 12-10 ATS. UNC is 3-2 in the last two NCAA Tournament’s and Hubert Davis has gone 4-0 in the first round of the tournament with the Tar Heels. This could be North Carolina’s first loss in the first round under Davis, especially without Wilson in the tournament.
TCU vs Ohio State (-2.5): O/U 146.5
TCU and Ohio State are one of the most intriguing No. 8 and 9 seed matchups. The Buckeyes were on the fringe for the last two weeks and finished the year 4-1 over their last five with a lone loss to Michigan. For TCU, the Frogs went 9-2 over the last 11 games and gave Kansas all it could handle in the Big 12 tournament.
TCU enters as a defensive-minded team. The Horned Frogs rank 22nd in defensive efficiency and 31st in defensive turnover percentage (19.7%). TCU will look to shut down Ohio State’s two main scorers, Bruce Thornton and John Mobley, as the Horned Frogs look to get their first tournament win since 2023.
Ohio State has the 17th-ranked offense in the country and has top 100 ranks across the board. On defense, the Buckeyes allow 52.4% from two-point range (217th) and rank 237th in defensive turnover percentage (15.8%). The Buckeyes aren’t a strong rebounding team either, so there is enough holes in their game for the Horned Frogs to take advantage.
TCU is 9-3 ATS and 6-6 on the ML as an underdog this season, while Ohio State is 7-10-1 ATS and 16-2 on the ML as a favorite. This is a small spread, but I believe TCU can win this game outright with its strong defense and upset Jake Diebler in his first NCAA Tournament game as a head coach of Ohio State.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NCAA Basketball schedule!
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