Conference tournament season is upon us and teams are beginning to punch their tickets to the big dance! The Power 5 conferences all have heavy favorites, but I think there is value in fading some of these teams, as well as a long shot in the A-10. Let’s take a look at five different conference tournament picks. Odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
SEC Tournament Champion | Favorites: Florida (-175), Arkansas (+600), Alabama (+700)
The Florida Gators are accumulating the most bets and represent most of the handle for who will win the SEC at multiple sports books, but I think there is value on Arkansas at +600.
The Razorbacks have a good road to the final starting with either Oklahoma or Texas A&M. Whoever wins that game likely faces Arkansas, then next up would be Alabama. Despite the Tide being the higher seeded team, Arkansas has better odds to win the tournament, which I think is a telling sign. Arkansas beat Texas A&M by 15 points at home and Oklahoma by 4 on the road, while the Razorbacks lost at Alabama, 117-115 in 2 OT, so that’s a revenge spot.
Arkansas has the SEC Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year in Darius Acuff. He is also one of the clutchest players in the country and scored a season-high 49 points earlier this season at Alabama. The Razorbacks largest loss on the season came at Florida by 40 points, which will make this Arkansas team hungry if that’s the rematch. Plus, if it is Arkansas versus Florida in the SEC Final — the Hogs won’t be +600 underdogs, so this is a good price either way to get involved with.
Pick: Arkansas to win the SEC tournament (1u)
Big 10 Tournament Champion | Favorites: Michigan (-135), Illinois (+425), Michigan State (+600)
The Big Ten tournament is filled with amazing teams, but there is one I think that is worth betting to win it all — the Michigan Wolverines.
Michigan is one of two teams in the country (Duke) to rank top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season. The Wolverines have superb defensive ranks and despite being without bench player LJ Cason, Michigan is still deep enough to continue their run.
Michigan will go through either Iowa or Ohio State first, which shouldn’t be much of a problem, then either Illinois or Wisconsin presumably. Illinois is the second-ranked favorite and it’s probably safe to say that the winner of that matchup will win the Big Ten tournament.
While Purdue, Michigan State, and Nebraska are on the other side of the bracket — I do not believe those teams have the talent or the firepower to take down the Wolverines. Plus, it’s march, the Spartans get hyped up too much and the Boilermakers always fall short — I can’t trust either team nor Nebraska who is 6-5 in the last 11 games. Give me Michigan to win the Big 10.
Pick: Michigan to win the Big Ten tournament (1u)
Big 12 Tournament Champion | Favorites: Arizona (+105), Houston (+200), Iowa State (+700)
The hot pick in the Big 12 tournament are the Arizona Wildcats who have had a terrific regular season at 29-2 after an impressive 23-0 start. However, not all of the favorites or best teams win the conference tournaments and the Wildcats will have a No. 1 seed no matter the Big 12 tournament outcome. If we are looking for value, I like the Kansas Jayhawks.
The Jayhawks have arguably the best player in the country, Darryn Peterson, and it could be his time to shine. The Jayhawks’ superstar has received a lot of criticism all season with his playing habits and minutes on the floor, but this is the time of the season that matters most.
Kansas also has a decent road to the title game. The Jayhawks will play TCU who they beat by four points at home in OT earlier this season, then either BYU or Houston the following round — two teams Kansas beat by 8 and 11 points at home. With the Jayhawks being 3-0 versus those three teams, it’s hard not to like their avenue to facing Arizona, Iowa State or Texas Tech in the finals. And oh year, Kansas split with Arizona this season, winning by four and losing by 23 in the previous meeting on Feb. 28.
I like the Jayhawks’ value of +800 and +850 to win the Big 12. If they get past Houston or BYU, Kansas will likely be +160 to +220 underdogs, so this is excellent value.
Pick: Kansas to win the Big 12 tournament (1u)
Big East Tournament Champion | Favorites: UConn (+100), St. John’s (+185), Villanova (+650)
Not only does St. John’s have the home court advantage in the Big East tournament with it taking place at Madison Square Garden, but the Red Storm have the easier route to the finals.
UConn will have to go through Xavier or Marquette, then either Villanova or Georgetown. St. John’s will face Providence, then the winner of Creighton or Seton Hall, which is a better route than UConn’s, in my opinion.
Only three teams, as of now, will make the NCAA Tournament out of the Big East: UConn, St. John’s, and Villanova. The fact that UConn faces Villanova makes their route to the final a little more difficult. I also can’t forget to mention that St. John’s was demolished by UConn in their previous meeting, so I like the revenge factor for the Johnnies and the likelihood they will be locked in if that’s the final. At +185 odds, I like the Red Storm over the Huskies who are +100.
Pick: St. John’s to win the Big East (1u)
A-10 Tournament Champion | Favorites: Saint Louis (+130), VCU (+180), Dayton (+750)
I am going with a longshot to win the A-10: George Mason. The Patriots are 23-8 on the season and have some impressive wins over top-ranked Saint Louis and VCU in conference. The Patriots’ route to the final will have to go through Dayton and Saint Louis, presumably, after they face Saint Bonaventure, who George Mason has beaten twice already.
At +4000 odds, George Mason is worth a swing here. The Patriots have top-five conference ranks in offensive turnover percentage (16%, 4th), offensive two-point percentage (54.6%), and effective field goal percentage on both ends of the floor. George Mason also plays at the slowest tempo in the A-10, so they will try to grind you out with fewer possessions. As one of three teams in the A-10 to rank top 110 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per Kenpom, I will take a shot on George Mason at +4000 odds opposed to Saint Louis or VCU at lower than +200.
Pick: George Mason to win the A-10 (0.25 unit)
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