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(All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)
Much has been made of Clemson missing both of its coordinators. Former OC Tony Elliott accepted the head coaching job at Virginia, and former DC Brent Venables replaced Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma. While the Tigers’ coaching shakeup raises questions, so does Iowa State’s personnel losses. Not only have double-digit Cyclones entered the transfer portal since season’s end, but, more importantly, star RB Breece Hall declared for the NFL Draft and opted-out.
What: Cheez-It Bowl
Who: Clemson (9-3, 6-2 ACC) vs. Iowa State (7-5, 5-4 Big 12)
Where: Orlando, Florida
When: December 29 at 5:45 p.m. ET (ESPN)
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Opening line: Clemson -1 (O/U 44.5)
Current line: Clemson -1.5 (O/U 44)
Most recent bowl result: Iowa State beat Oregon 34-17 in last year’s Fiesta Bowl as 4.5-point favorites. Clemson lost to Ohio State in last year’s semifinal (Sugar) 49-28 as 7-point favorites.
Clemson at a glance: Clemson HC Dabo Swinney chose to promote from within – Brandon Streeter and Wes Goodwin, respectively – to replace Elliott and Venables, so coaching continuity is at least intact. Clemson opened the season 0-7 ATS, but played much better down the stretch, ending the season on a five-game winning streak that saw the Tigers go 4-1 ATS. The Tigers will be mostly intact from an on-field personnel perspective with the exception of WRs Justyn Ross and Frank Ladson. Ross is headed to the NFL and Ladson wants a fresh start elsewhere.
Iowa State at a glance: Many liked the Cyclones to win the Big 12. The season went off the rails, but, on the positive side, four of the five losses were by one-possession, and HC Matt Campbell is still around. But Iowa State had 11 players enter the transfer portal after the season. All are unlikely to play. Most notably, starting WR Tarique Milton (15-278-3) and S Isheem Young (Big 12 co-defensive freshman of the year in 2020), along with several key reserves. But the loss of RB Breece Hall looms the largest.
Key to the matchup: Expect a defensive rock fight. Iowa State is really going to miss Hall. Hall is one of the best runners in America and the fulcrum point of this offense. Without him, ISU needs to have a totally different offensive strategy. RB2 Jirehl Brock isn’t handling that workload, to say nothing of doing so with Hall’s aplomb. The issue for Iowa State is the two-TE sets are all based on the idea of a Hall-centric scheme, and QB Brock Purdy is not only limited, but can get himself in trouble when he tries to stretch beyond his means. Ask yourself this: How are the Cyclones going to hang 24 points or more against a top-3 defense without Breece Hall?
Clemson’s passing offense stunk with Ross and Ladson anyway, so their absences are barely worth thinking about from a spread perspective. Clemson’s path to winning this game hinge on its No. 3 SP+ defense and No. 7 SP+ special teams units showing up, and RBs Will Shipley and Kobe Pace providing a consistent ground threat alongside dual-threat QB DJ Uiagalelei. Swinney and new OC Brandon Streeter will have an extremely conservative passing gameplan set up for Uiagalelei and won’t put him in bad spots. Whereas it’s difficult to envision a Hall-less ISU offense scoring three TD against Clemson’s defense, it’s a bit easier to envision Shipley and Pace running for 200 combined yards against ISU’s less-than-100-percent defense.
Best Bet: Clemson -1.5 | Under 44
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