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(All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)
UPDATE: The Military Bowl was canceled on Dec. 26 because of COVID-19 issues for Boston College that left the Eagles with more than 40 players unavailable to participate.
This week, Boston College and East Carolina square off in the 13th edition of the Military Bowl, which originated as the Eagle Bank Bowl in 2008. Wake Forest downed Navy 29-18 in the inaugural game of the series, which has been played in Annapolis, Maryland since 2013 after being moved from Washington, D.C.
This year, East Carolina makes its second appearance in the Military Bowl, 12 years after dropping their first appearance in the game to Maryland by a score of 51-20. The Pirates are back in their first bowl game since 2015, and have gone gone 3-7 in their last 10 bowl games dating back to 2000.
Boston College on the other hand is making its first appearance in the Military Bowl, as the Eagles look to correct a recent trend of bowl game losses. Since 2008, Boston College is 1-7 in its bowl game appearances, being outscored 234-145 in bowl games over that span.
With two teams looking to get past some bad bowl game streaks, let’s take a look at how this one could shake out.
What: Military Bowl
Who: Boston College (6-6, 2-6 ACC) vs. East Carolina (7-5, 5-3 in AAC)
Where: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD
When: Monday, December 27 at 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Opening line: Boston College -3.5 (O/U 51)
Current line: Boston College -3 (O/U 52.5)
Most recent bowl result: Boston College lost to Cincinnati 38-6 in the 2020 Birmingham Bowl. East Carolina lost to Florida 28-20 in the 2015 Birmingham Bowl.
Boston College at a glance: The 2021 season started off great for Boston College, who spent the first four weeks of the season beating up on inferior opponents to lay the ground work for a barely bowl eligible season.
Boston College has just two wins over bowl eligible teams this season (Missouri and Virginia Tech), and saw some of its momentum come to a halt when quarterback Phil Jurkovec suffered a wrist injury against UMass that was thought to be season-ending.
Backup quarterback Dennis Grosel led Boston College to a 2-4 record in his six starts in place of Jurkovec, but when the conference games started, Grosel crumbled.
In Grosel’s four ACC matchups, Boston College never scored more than 14 points in a game, despite Boston College’s defense allowing 28 points or fewer in three of those games. Offensive struggles were a common theme for Boston College this season, as they ranked 93rd in points per game (24.7) and 103rd in yards per game (349.7).
Defensively, the Eagles have been stout, allowing just 22.2 points per game while surrendering only 344.3 yards per game, which ranks 34th in the nation. The Eagles have forced a three-and-out on 33.6% of opponent’s offensive drives this season, and boast a particularly solid pass defense that is allowing only a 38.9% success rate on opponent’s passing plays (45th).
East Carolina at a glance: When it comes to the Pirates, their season has been one of frustrating production.
When it comes to efficiency, the Pirates rank 100th in overall success rate at 39.8%, and 99th in marginal efficiency at -5.2%. However, quarterback Holton Ahlers has managed to find a way to lead the Pirates to a 29.2 points per game average (55th) and 432.7 yards per game (38th). How is this possible?
Despite horrific efficiency, East Carolina has survived offensively on the back of big plays.
The Pirates rank 25th on the season in marginal explosiveness (0.11) and 56th in explosive play rate (12.9%). Running back Keaton Mitchell has rushed for 1,132 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging a blistering 6.1 yards per carry, and has forced a missed tackle on 21% of his touches.
Defensively, ECU is every bit as prone to giving up a big play as they are to creating one. Their defense ranks 115th in marginal explosiveness (0.16) and 107th in explosive play rate (13.8%). With that being said, their pass defense has held teams at bay, ranking 49th in passing down success rate against (39.4%) and 11th in blitz down success rate (16.1%).
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Key to the matchup: In a game that features two underwhelming offenses and two solid defenses, this matchup is setting up to be a strength vs. weakness battle that could end in a low-scoring affair. This game going under its projected total of 51.5 points wouldn’t be surprising, as two inefficient offenses could struggle to breakthrough defenses that have held their own this season, and played a key role in each of these teams being bowl eligible.
Best Bet: As previously mentioned, East Carolina has shown a propensity to be successful in its blitz packages. This is also the case for Boston College, whose defense ranks ninth in blitz down success rate (21.8%) and blitzes its opponents on 33.3% of their drop backs (25th). Where East Carolina has struggled, in addition to their overall offensive efficiency, is in pass blocking. Per Pro Football Focus, the Pirates have a pass blocking grade of 44.8, which ranks as the 16th worst pass blocking grade on the site. Ahlers has taken 35 sacks on the year, which ranks 10th most in the nation and has been pressured on 164 of his drop backs, which ranks as sixth most. Considering ECU’s offensive inefficiencies, the Pirates could find themselves in several passing downs that will open the door for Boston College to run its blitz packages and get after Ahlers all afternoon. Should this come to fruition, I like Boston College to cover in this one behind a strong defensive effort, and the play of Jurkovec, who can shake things up not only through the air, but also on the ground (44/351/5).
Pick: Boston College (-3)
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