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Temple at UCF (-23.5): O/U 46.0
One of my favorite teams of this year is back on a Thursday and I can’t wait.
UCF hosts Temple at The Bounce House and all signs, including the spread, point to a smackdown.
The Bounce House is a difficult place to play and SMU experienced that in Week 6 on a Wednesday.
Temple is the second-lowest scoring team in the entire country when it comes to first-half points per game. The Owls average 4.3 points per game in the first-half versus FBS opponents and scored seven or less in all four games versus FBS teams.
On the road, Temple has scored three points in the first-half all season! Here is how Temple has performed versus four FBS opponents this season.
At Duke: Duke led 24-0 at halftime -- Duke won 30-0
Vs Rutgers: Rutgers led 10-7 at halftime -- Rutgers won 16-14
Vs UMass: Temple led 7-0 at halftime -- Temple won 28-0
At Memphis: Temple led 3-0 at halftime -- Memphis won 24-3
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What’s to like from those results? Nothing. Temple’s offense has been downright terrible this season.
The Owls rank 104th in time of possession, 125th in total offense (282.4 ypg), 125th in rushing offense (83.9 ypg), 115th in passing efficiency (133.3) and tied-90th in red zone offense (77.8%).
UCF boasts the 41st-ranked total defense, which is the second-best ranked defense Temple has faced thus far. While Rutgers has a higher ranking (13th) and allowed seven points in the first-half, that was a major look-ahead game for Rutgers with a home game versus Iowa on deck the following week.
UCF is ranked No. 1 in the country for red zone defense (47.4%), ranks 7th in third-down defense (26.4%) and 12th in passing efficiency defense (108.64). I can’t see Temple moving the ball much or getting inside the red zone often versus this UCF defense at home.
The Knights will not play until Saturday the 21st, so there isn’t a look-ahead here with plenty of time to game plan for East Carolina.
UCF beat Temple 49-7 last season and the Owls scored a touchdown in the fourth-quarter. In 2021, UCF won 38-13 and held Temple to three points in the first-half and the Owls scored 10 points in the fourth-quarter.
So, in the past two series meetings, three points have been the result for Temple in the first-half versus UCF.
I faded Temple in the First Half (1H) and took the Owls Team Total Under 6.5 points at -115 odds on DraftKings.
I don’t think Temple scores a touchdown in the first 30 minutes at The Bounce House, so I locked in UCF -11.5 (-140) at FanDuel and would play this out to -14 for a 0.5 unit.
Pick: Temple 1H Team Total Under 6.5 (1u), UCF 1H -11.5 (1u)
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
