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The first true Bowl weekend has come and gone, and it was a doozy. We saw incredible records fall, broken in the most unexpected places. We saw programs rise, including one that didn’t even exist five years ago. Third stringers rose up to deliver clutch performances, and top draft prospects showed off their stuff one last time. It was a great weekend of football after a short break, and this is just the beginning.
Upset Alert
UAB vs. #13 BYU in the Independence Bowl (Line: BYU -6.5, O/U 55)
Result: UAB wins 31-28
The Blazers are back in full force. For a program that didn’t even exist five years ago (UAB’s program was terminated in 2014 and reinstated in 2017) to be in a bowl game and beat the #13 team in the nation is an incredible feat. Things are really looking up for them, and they’ll have a brand new home for 2021 as well. Both of these teams asked the run game carry the load, and both starting running backs answered the bell. They both rushed for over 180 yards each and both had a 60+ yard touchdown to their name. The teams were pretty evenly matched, and the game came down to an untimely fumble by BYU’s Samson Nacua. With 4:17 left in the game, BYU QB Baylor Romney, filling in for normal starter Jarren Hall, delivered a pass to Nacua, who had the ball just slip out of his hands. UAB was able to kill the rest of the clock and win.
In terms of the spread, BYU was one of a few teams that had the majority of action go their way by both handle percentage and total be percentage. In fact, the 81% of total bets that went to the Cougars was the highest percentage of action for any game’s spread. The sharps who make up the large majority of the handle were more cautious, and only 58% of the money went BYU’s way. Regardless, it was an upset most did not see coming. That’s further corroborated by the moneyline action, which saw 84% of bets and a massive 94% of the bets go with the favorites. The moneyline action almost always favors, well, the favorite, but it’s somewhat surprising it was that lopsided when it was less than a touchdown spread.
The points total action on the other hand, was one of the most split of the week. While 68% of bets took the over, 75% of the money thought it would be a slower game and went under. They weren’t exactly wrong about that with how much running each team did, but they didn’t account for how easily both teams would gain yards on the ground. UAB’s game winning touchdown from Dylan Hopkins to Trea Shropshire with 6:28 left in the game led to a close over, and overall this was a tough game for the betting public.
Utah State vs. Oregon State in the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl (Line: Oregon State -7, O/U 68)
Result: Utah State wins 24-13
Ironically, the game with the highest points total was the game with the lowest total score. At least the majority of bettors (77%) and handle (66%) wisely realized that 68 was far too high. As for the game itself, if you told me Utah State would win by scoring just 24 points and with star QB Luke Bonner getting hurt in the first quarter, I would’ve laughed in your face. As it turns out though, that’s exactly what happened, and third-string QB Cooper Legas entered his name into Utah State legend. Legas did what great backups should do, which is lean on the defense and run game, and when you do have to sling it find your best receiver. The sophomore threw a touchdown on his very first college pass attempt, a 62-yard bomb to Deven Thompkins, and added another one late in the third for good measure.
Oregon State on the other hand, just self-imploded. They had 13 penalties in the game, and the two turnovers in the fourth quarter didn’t help. Neither did the two failed fourth down conversions or the missed 44-yard field goal. Credit the Aggies defense though, as they managed to limit B.J. Baylor to just 78 yards on 18 carries and no scores in a season where he averaged 100+ per game and found the end zone 13 times.
As for the betting numbers, this was overall the most split action of the day. Not only was the spread action split, with 59% of the total bets taking Utah State and 60% of the handle siding with the Beavers, the moneyline action of all things was split as well. Even stranger, the majority was split the opposite way, with 53% of the tickets going with Oregon State this time, and 62% of the money rolling with the Aggies. Utah State’s dominating performance against San Diego State in the Mountain West championship was enough for moneyline bettors to take them despite being a touchdown underdog, which rarely happens.
South Carolina State vs. Jackson State in the Celebration Bowl (Line: Jackson State -10.5, O/U 42.5)
Result: SC State wins 31-10
It was quite the humbling for Deion Sanders and crew. Fresh off pulling one of the biggest coups in college football recruiting ever when they nabbed 2022 #1 overall high schooler Travis Hunter, Jackson State then got blown out by a team in a league they were supposed to have outgrown. South Carolina State didn’t lie down and serve as a spectacle though, and they ended Jackson State’s supposed victory lap for the defacto HBCU championship. It wasn’t a pretty game, with both QBs failing to complete even 50% of their passes, but SC State’s Cory Fields Jr got it done, throwing four touchdowns on just 12 completions. The Bulldogs came to play defensively, and actually held Jackson State to a Celebration Bowl record low yards gained, at just 194. Jackson State will be receiving quite the reinforcements next year though with their high level transfers and recruiting, but for at least one more year they don’t run things in the FCS.
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Split Decisions
Four of the six FBS bowl games on Saturday featured split action on the spread, which continues a trend that started towards the end of the regular season.
Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty in the LendingTree Bowl (Line: Liberty -9.5, O/U 58)
Result: Liberty wins 56-20
It wasn’t the season that Liberty and Malik Willis wanted, as I’m sure they had higher aspirations this season than the LendingTree Bowl, but they ended on the best note they could have. Willis, a preseason draft darling, had seen his stock slip after getting toasted in their previous three games before the bowl, but he did what he could do to recover it. He accounted for five touchdowns with his usual dazzling display of arm strength and mobility that makes him such a tantalizing NFL prospect. Liberty lit up the Eagles with big play after big play and were up 33-10 at half. It was pretty much a formality after that.
Bettors were scared by the fairly big number for Liberty, especially since they were crushed in the aforementioned three games leading up the bowl. Willis especially had trouble with turnovers, throwing six interceptions in those three games. That caused 63% of bettors to take Eastern Michigan, although 73% of the handle smartly rode with the Flames. While the moneyline action was it’s normal lopsided self in favor of Liberty, it is somewhat surprising it wasn’t MORE lopsided in favor of Liberty, who saw just 80% of tickets and 84% of the handle. Again, it must go back to Liberty’s rough regular season end. Then again, it’s not like Eastern Michigan was coming in with any sort of momentum having lost the Michigan MAC Trophy in blowout fashion.
One place the bettors agreed on though was the over/under. When Liberty gets going and Willis is allowed to do his thing, they can put up points in a hurry, and they almost met the points total themselves. Still, considering they had been held to under 20 in three straight I wouldn’t have been surprised if the under hit. Bettors had no such reservations, as 70% of tickets and 84% of the handle gleefully took the over.
#23 Louisiana vs. Marshall in the New Orleans Bowl (Line: Louisiana -4, O/U 55.5)
Result: Louisiana wins 36-21
This was an oddly low spread considering the circumstances. On one hand was Louisiana, who were on a 12 game win streak, having only lost their first game to Texas. They comfortably won the Sun Belt, and were basically as home as home gets in bowl games. On the other hand, we have Marshall, who were 7-5 and had just been blown out by Western Kentucky. How that equals a four point spread I’m not exactly sure, but it seems the line looked like enough of a trap for bettors to overthink things. Just 58% of the total bets went the Ragin’ Cajuns way, and a startling 75% of the money went to the Thundering Herd instead. In fact, the line moved down from Louisiana -5.5, which already was not nearly enough.
At least there was some solace to be had in the points total, but even then only barely. Louisiana’s defense has been one of the best in the nation which led to 55% of bettors taking the under, while 66% of the handle took the over. That just snuck through when the Ragin’ Cajuns scored an unnecessary touchdown with 1:45 left in the game. There was no funny business going on with the moneyline at least, with 83% of tickets and 94% of money taking Louisiana. It does seem weird that there was such confidence in them to win, but not cover four points though.
“Yeah, Well, Maybe Next Time You Will Estimate Me” Award
We have a late season addition to the categories list, featuring teams that really should have been getting more credit from Vegas, the media, and the people at large.
Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State in the Boca Raton Bowl (Line: Western Kentucky -1, O/U 67)
Result: Western Kentucky wins 59-38
Western Kentucky had a bad beginning to their season, starting just 1-4, but they completely turned it around after that. If you look at their losses in those five games too, they really weren’t bad. They barely lost to Army and Indiana (who still had hope back then), put up 31 on Michigan State and lost by less than a touchdown to UTSA. They went on to win seven straight after that, and they covered (very easily in many cases) six of those. Sure they lost to UTSA again in the Conference USA championship, but they had an amazing season. On the way, WKU QB Bailey Zappe put himself in striking distance of the FBS touchdown and yardage records. Appalachian State weren’t slouches themselves, as they had a remarkably similar season to WKU. They were crushed by Louisiana, then proceeded to stomp six teams in a row (also covering five of those) before losing in the conference championship to Louisiana again, also by eight points.
Louisiana’s better overall record led them to open as slight favorites, but Vegas realized their error and swung the line in favor of the Hilltoppers by kickoff. It wasn’t near enough as Zappe would go on to break Joe Burrows’ touchdown record and B.J. Symons yardage record in a blowout win. WKU weren’t the number two offense in college football for no reason, and it was almost business as usual for them. To Appalachian State’s credit, the first half was quite close, but the Hilltoppers turned on the jets in the third quarter and put the bowl game away. Western Kentucky had been doing this to teams all season, but somehow they still didn’t seem to get proper credit given the lines they had even at the end of the year. That’s especially true of their defense which had really improved, especially when it came to generating turnovers. Not against UTSA to be fair, but they were far from the leaky faucet they had been in the first half of the season.
Despite how well the Hilltoppers had been playing, 60% of tickets took Appalachian State, and just 53% of the handle took Western Kentucky. The moneyline was also in favor of the Mountaineers, however so slightly (53 and 51% of the bets and handle respectively). Perhaps the most egregious underestimation came with the point total though. While 67 is a big number, WKU’s offense is arguably the best in the nation, while App State put up 34.5 points per game themselves. They flew past the over halfway through the third quarter, and utterly obliterated it by the end of the game. Just 63% of the bettors took over, and a whopping 75% of the handle thought the under was the way to go. That sad majority underestimated Western Kentucky for the last time.
Protector’s of Your Cash (kind of)
UTEP vs. Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl (Line: Fresno State -11.5, O/U 55)
Result: Fresno State wins 31-14
UTEP pulled off the rare feat of being an underdog but still getting the majority of the action on their side, and then actually coming through for the bettors. Fresno State has kind of been overrated for much of the year, and when bettors saw the double digit number they were quick to side with the Miners. While just 54% of the tickets went with UTEP, a pretty hefty 74% of the handle took them and the points and were duly rewarded. Honestly that was a bit premature in my opinion, considering UTEP had lost four of their last five, but hey, it worked out. Of course, basically no one was messing around with the moneyline, as Fresno State cleaned that up to the tune of 88% of total bets and 94% of total money, but that’s just standard operating procedure. In that way, both teams protected their bettors.
The point total of 52 was the lowest of the weekend, and it was relatively close to the final mark of 55. As befitting the somewhat close call, betting action was pretty evenly split, with no side getting a good majority. Just 58% of the bets came in for the over, while 61% of the money took the under. Considering that Fresno State does put up solid points (33.4 per game) and UTEP games had gone over 52 in four of their last five it’s a bit odd that under was a fairly popular pick, and that one did not work out for those bettors.
Even though we are nearing the end, there are still so many amazing games to look forward to. The New Year’s Six and CFP of course, but there are plenty of other matchups to salivate over, and it’s going to be a fantastic end to an already incredible season. There’s almost no other possible result. If these seven small bowls were anything to go by, the 2021 Bowl Season will be one to remember.
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