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Wow, what a week of college football. This might be a week that goes down in the annals of the NCAA, with multiple absolute classics. Of course the headline is a battered, reeling Texas A&M team dethroning the kings of college football in Alabama, but that wasn’t the only dramatic game - far from it. Penn State-Iowa was a nail-biter throughout. Oklahoma needed a QB switch to come back from down three scores in a crazy Red River Showdown. Mississippi and Arkansas had a thriller of a game come down to a failed two-point conversion. A few other ranked teams survived by the skin of their teeth, like Wake Forest, SMU, Michigan and Notre Dame. Crazy games means crazy happenings in the world of betting, and there was clearly no shortage of games to discuss.
Upset Alert
Despite the biggest upset in a long time, it was actually a pretty safe day for ranked teams. There were some near-misses, but only two ranked teams fell to unranked teams, and only one ranked matchup had the lower team win. Of course, that’s all overshadowed by the insanity that was Alabama-Texas A&M, so that’s where we start.
#1 Alabama at Texas A&M (Line: Alabama -18, O/U 50.5)
Result: Texas A&M wins 41-38
What an unbelievable upset. All year I’ve been talking about Alabama as an unassailable fortress, and of all teams to take them down it was an A&M team that lost their last two games in embarrassing fashion, with a QB that was booed last week at home and with multiple starting DBs and linemen out for the year with injuries. Football really is magical sometimes.
Like in most major upsets, Texas A&M needed some things to break their way, including an incredible 96y-ard kick return for a touchdown right after Alabama got some luck of their own in a blocked punt touchdown. Make no mistake though, the Aggies thoroughly deserved this win, capitalizing on rare Alabama miscues and opening up a 24-10 lead going into half. They weathered a furious Alabama comeback, even losing the lead briefly, but Zach Calzada, who I’m sure most Aggies fans wanted banished to the bench, pulled off the greatest game of his career and probably life. He absorbed a massive hit to tie the game on a pass to Ainias Smith, and on his following drive got the Aggies to the Alabama 11 with a number of gutsy plays. That set things up for kicker Seth Small to hit in a chip shot winner at the death, and even then it seemed like a divine wind pushed the kick, hooking left, back in just enough to send Alabama home packing.
It’s games like these that remind college football fans how amazing this sport is, and remind bettors how fickle Lady Luck can be. Everyone assumed an Alabama blowout was on the cards, and if this game was replayed 100 times it’s possible the next 99 times would be a Bama blowout. But we don’t live in those universes, we live in this one, the 14,000,605th timeline where Nick “Thanos” Saban was defeated. In by FAR the most lopsided action of the week, 92% of the tickets and 93% of the total money went towards Alabama to cover. No one dreamed Texas A&M had a shot, but after the first half even the Crimson Tide would’ve needed an insane second half to cover. To their credit, they almost pulled it off by scoring 28 points, but A&M scored just enough to stay one step ahead.
Also in expectation of a Bama blowout I’m sure, 95% of the total bets and 96% of the handle took the over, which is the most lopsided number I’ve seen since starting this column. Hopefully that was enough to offset the massive amount of people that took a beating betting on the line.
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Boise State at #10 BYU (Line: BYU -6, O/U 58)
Result: Boise State wins 26-17
This was the other unranked upset this week, although not as dramatic, as Boise State used a huge second quarter to comfortably take out BYU. As is usually the case in these big upsets, the ranked team committed far too many turnovers, with back to back fumbles leading to 14 Boise State points in that aforementioned big second quarter. There was an additional BYU fumble that came in Boise State territory that certainly didn’t help, and an interception that ended the game for good in the fourth quarter.
Despite the rather low point spread, bettors thought BYU had this one in the bag. 87% of total bets took BYU, as well as 85% of the handle. Unlike the Alabama game though, the majority of bettors didn’t nail the O/U to help offset their big loss on the spread. A whopping 90% of the money took the over, with so much money coming in for the over that the points total moved from 55.5 at opening to 58 by kickoff. Neither would have hit, as BYU failed to hold up their scoring end. Having that many turnovers will do that to you, and it makes you wonder if it’s Baylor Romney’s turn to call the shots.
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Protectors of Your Cash
The Big Ten came through big, with all four heavily-bet conference teams covering their point spread. Also, while this column usually only focuses on the Saturday games, it’s worth noting that Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina comfortably covered for the third time each. Both of these teams are sharks in a small pond, and should be comfortable bets against their subpar competition for most of the season. Cincinnati bucked their scoring trend somewhat, as they scored 10 points in the first quarter and a massive 28 in the third, when usually they do better in the second and fourth. One thing that did stay the same was their second half dominance. Cincinnati should be a popular live line or second half pick going forward.
Maryland at #7 Ohio State (Line OSU -21.5, O/U 71.5)
Result: Ohio State wins 66-17
It looks like a week off to heal and get his head right was really all CJ Stroud needed, as he has been on fire since coming back. He’s now eviscerated two Big Ten opponents in a row, throwing for 736 yards and 10 touchdowns in those two games. The skill positions helped of course, and they have an easy argument as the best group in the nation as a whole, and there is no question this offense is up there as one of the best in the NCAA. The defense was a bigger question mark, but again these past two weeks they’ve been much improved. Rutgers and Maryland aren’t the cream of the college football crop, but they don’t suck either, and Maryland especially can put up points.
OSU is feeling a little bit like the famous 2014 team that lost an early wake-up game to Virginia Tech and then went on to win the whole thing. With the CFP landscape looking sketchy with Alabama dethroned, OSU might be gearing up for another similar run. Bettors are also feeling confident in the Buckeyes. 84% of the public and even more surprisingly 90% of the handle went to OSU to cover, and they did so with aplomb.
The total was a different story. It had the biggest opening-to-current move of the week, from 68.5 to 71.5 despite the two-way nature of the action. In a rare flip-flop, the majority of the tickets took the under (69%), while 62% of the money went for the over which hit pretty easily. Like I’ve said before, OSU’s got a great combination of an insanely potent and explosive offense and a defense that can be got, which makes them fantastic over candidates.
Georgia, Michigan State, Iowa and Michigan also all qualify for this category. In the interest of time, here’s a quick rundown.
- Georgia, the new No. 1, is looking incredible defensively. They haven’t let an opponent score more than 13 all year, and have two shutouts on their resume. After an anemic offensive start in the opener against Clemson, they’ve also put up more than 30 in every game. Georgia is rolling right now, but they face what shockingly may be their toughest test of the year pre-championship season in Kentucky next week.
- Michigan State is another pleasant surprise this year. Rutgers blew out three straight opponents, ran Michigan very close and now the wheels seem to have fallen off. Michigan State might be feasting on weak opposition and over-hyped Big Ten opponents, but they’re playing well and comfortably covered a number that was probably far too low. Next week they get Indiana, who you can kind of group in that Nebraska and Rutgers tier of Big Ten teams you think could be kind of decent until they aren’t, but then they face Michigan, two more of the average Big Ten teams and then OSU and Penn State back-to-back. The Spartans seem to fall in that 1.5 tier, where they are clearly better than most of the Big Ten, but probably aren’t on the level of Iowa, Penn State, and OSU. That could change quickly though.
- Michigan and Iowa both had incredibly close games that went down to the absolute wire. Both got very small lines (-2.5) and both just barely covered by winning by three. Michigan needed a fourth quarter Adrian Martinez fumble to comeback and win, while Iowa barely scraped out the W with Penn State’s starting QB going down, although it’s not like Sean Clifford was amazing while in, either. Both were not great looks for the winners. They were heavily bet because the line seemed way too small, and the oddsmakers were essentially proven to be dead on. Iowa’s defense is good, but with Ohio State on the ascendancy their grip on the Big Ten seems tenuous, while Michigan has looked shaky against fairly subpar competition recently. I wouldn’t trust either right now.
Failure to Launch
Outside of the HUGE upsets, it was a fairly chalky week. Five teams qualified for the previous category, while just one heavily bet team failed to cover while still pulling out the victory.
#24 SMU at Navy (Line: SMU -13.5, O/U 56.5)
Result: SMU wins 31-24
Navy (their defense at least) is much better than their 1-4 record would indicate, and Tanner Mordecai and the Mustangs felt the full brunt of that. Navy forced a fumble that was returned for a touchdown (it was also SMU’s first sack allowed) and also picked Mordecai off in the endzone, and SMU was held to their lowest point total of the season so far.
Mordecai was up-and-down as he’s been multiple times this season. On one hand, you can see the arm talent with multiple fantastic throws throughout the game, but the decision making seems questionable at times. Mordecai missed on the same pass three times, under-throwing the pass trying to fit the ball over Navy’s zone and was extremely lucky to only get intercepted once.
Navy was up 21-7 for a brief moment before Bryan Massey returned a kick-off for a touchdown, and momentum shifted enough for SMU to pull out the win. They failed to cover though, which 81% of the total bets and 82% of the total handle were banking on. Navy is playing much better than at the beginning of the season, especially defensively, so they could be a tough opponent to cover against moving forward.
Navy games are a popular under pick due to their grinding, run the ball and the clock style, and this one hit if only just. Only 53% of the handle went to the under however. Perhaps many bettors thought that Mordecai, bringing a ridiculous 24 passing touchdowns into the game, would be able to blow the Midshipmen away, but they proved much more resilient than that.
Split Decisions
#19 Wake Forest at Syracuse (Line: Wake Forest -6, O/U 58.5)
Result: Wake Forest wins 40-37 (OT)
Syracuse has been a surprisingly tough opponent, beating Liberty, taking Florida State to the limit and now giving the Demon Deacons all they could handle in an overtime thriller. It’s no surprise, then, that despite Wake Forest’s undefeated record and a fairly small point spread, the betting action was extremely split. 61% of the total bets went toward the favorites, while 68% of the handle took Syracuse in what ended up being an incredibly smart play.
As fitting for such a contentious, back and forth game, the point total was also split. This time, the majority of the tickets went the right direction, with 69% of them going over which hit by a fair margin. But 52% of the handle went toward the under though, showing it was far from a consensus decision.
Syracuse looks very solid, and they shouldn’t be counted out against anyone in the very shaky ACC. The same can be said for Wake Forest as well. The ACC’s defenses are, to put it mildly, not good, and Wake Forest can put up points in a hurry. They’ve scored over 35 in every game this season.
Close Call
#6 Oklahoma @ #21 Texas (Line: Oklahoma -3.5, O/U 65)
Result: Oklahoma wins 55-48
The Red River Showdown lived up to the hype, with both teams basically scoring at will. Texas jumped out to a huge lead, leading by 21 in the first quarter, and took a 38-20 lead into the half. Oklahoma was forced to bench their five-star QB for another, and completed an incredible comeback, scoring 25 points in the 4th quarter alone. Neither team could stop their opposing offense on the ground or through the air, and the score line showed it. That’s fairly classic Big 12 though, and despite a high point total of 65 it was easily met and surpassed. Unsurprisingly, 88% of the handle took the over. That was about the only sure thing in this game.
Oklahoma tied things up in the fourth on a 55-yard pass, then recovered a fumble on the ensuing kick return and punched that in immediately to take their first lead. Texas managed to tie the game back up with 1:35 left, and the game seemed destined for overtime, with the spread hanging in the balance. Kennedy Brooks though, as part of his career day, decided to call “ball game”. With Oklahoma tentatively in field goal range (and a field goal would mean they wouldn’t cover) Brooks burst through the left, and scored a 33-yard, walk-off touchdown to give Oklahoma the win AND the cover.
The 58% of the bettors that sided with Texas were probably feeling really secure after the first quarter and half, but it was the 52% of the handle that went with Oklahoma that were celebrating in the end. This game was a Texas cover for essentially 59 minutes and nine seconds, and yet college football finds a way. It doesn’t get much closer than that.
Now for the Over/Under analysis of the week. With lots of teams on byes, and three ranked games before Saturday, only 15 ranked games were on display this weekend. The over was the favored bet for the public in 10 of 15 games, which is the lowest percentage so far. As for the handle, the majority went over eight times, which again is the lowest all season. O/U bets seem to be trending more towards a 50-50 split as the weeks go on, which is basically what the actual games have been doing as well. Ironically though, this was the first week that the majority of games went over, with nine games out of the fifteen. Can’t win them all.
Week 6 was yet another absurd week in the 2021 NCAA Football season, and with Alabama falling dreams of parity are looking clearer than ever. Then again, I fully expect Alabama and Georgia to still make the playoffs, and with Ohio State playing better I wouldn’t count them out either. At least Clemson won’t be there? No matter how things fall, though, the journey to the CFB playoffs has been a wild ride, even if the teams that end up in it aren’t exactly groundbreaking. With the way things are going, who’s to say those powerhouse teams won’t take another L this season?
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