Lines in the table below are from the perspective of the home team. ATL (Adjusted Thor Line) is a system I devised for determining line value. ATL considers several factors in setting a line. A few have to do with market indicators like sharp action and steam moves. For this reason, ATL lines are fluid and change throughout the week as information arrives, just like the actual lines. PB lines courtesy of PointsBet.
| Away | Home | PB Line | ATL | Day | EST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall | Appalachian State | -7 | -7.4 | Thursday | 7:30 PM |
| Middle Tennessee | Charlotte | -3 | 5.6 | Friday | 6:30 PM |
| Wake Forest | Virginia | -3.5 | -1.3 | Friday | 7:30 PM |
| Liberty | Syracuse | 6 | 7.1 | Friday | 8:00 PM |
| UNLV | Fresno State | -30 | -27.2 | Friday | 10:00 PM |
| Boise State | Utah State | 9 | 10.9 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| Georgia | Vanderbilt | 35 | 35.6 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| Missouri | Boston College | 1.5 | -3.8 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| Bowling Green | Minnesota | -31 | -28.9 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| FIU | Central Michigan | -11.5 | -9.8 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| Ohio | Northwestern | -14.5 | -10.5 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| LSU | Mississippi State | 2.5 | -0.8 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| SMU | TCU | -9.5 | -8.9 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| Texas Tech | Texas | -9 | -10.0 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| Notre Dame | Wisconsin | -6.5 | -7.3 | Saturday* | 12:00 PM |
| Miami (OH) | Army | -8.5 | -9.2 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| UMass | Coastal Carolina | -36 | -35.3 | Saturday | 1:00 PM |
| San Jose State | Western Michigan | -3 | -3.1 | Saturday | 2:00 PM |
| Texas State | Eastern Michigan | -6.5 | -3.9 | Saturday | 2:00 PM |
| Toledo | Ball State | 5 | 8.2 | Saturday | 2:00 PM |
| Washington State | Utah | -15 | -13.8 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Kent State | Maryland | -14.5 | -14.3 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Wyoming | UConn | 30.5 | 29.5 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Clemson | NC State | 10 | 7.5 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Rutgers | Michigan | -18.5 | -16.9 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Colorado State | Iowa | -23.5 | -21.6 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Arkansas | Texas A&M | -5 | -8.6 | Saturday** | 3:30 PM |
| UTSA | Memphis | -3 | -0.8 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Louisville | Florida State | 1.5 | -1.2 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Illinois | Purdue | -11 | -12.3 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Iowa State | Baylor | 7 | 4.4 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Georgia State | Auburn | -27 | -26.4 | Saturday | 4:00 PM |
| Kansas | Duke | -16 | -14.7 | Saturday | 4:00 PM |
| Arkansas State | Tulsa | -13.5 | -12.1 | Saturday | 5:00 PM |
| Buffalo | Old Dominion | 13.5 | 15.0 | Saturday | 6:00 PM |
| Louisiana | Georgia Southern | 14 | 14.6 | Saturday | 6:00 PM |
| UCLA | Stanford | 4.5 | 5.0 | Saturday | 6:00 PM |
| Tennessee | Florida | -18.5 | -13.3 | Saturday | 7:00 PM |
| Kansas State | Oklahoma State | -6 | -5.7 | Saturday | 7:00 PM |
| Kentucky | South Carolina | 5 | 5.9 | Saturday | 7:00 PM |
| North Texas | Louisiana Tech | -11 | -4.1 | Saturday | 7:00 PM |
| Nebraska | Michigan State | -5 | -2.4 | Saturday | 7:00 PM |
| Navy | Houston | -20 | -22.4 | Saturday | 7:00 PM |
| Southern Miss | Alabama | -45.5 | -40.7 | Saturday | 7:30 PM |
| North Carolina | Georgia Tech | 12.5 | 10.8 | Saturday*** | 7:30 PM |
| West Virginia | Oklahoma | -17 | -18.1 | Saturday | 7:30 PM |
| Akron | Ohio State | -49 | -49.8 | Saturday | 7:30 PM |
| Indiana | Western Kentucky | 9 | 3.1 | Saturday | 8:00 PM |
| Florida Atlantic | Air Force | -4 | 7.2 | Saturday | 8:00 PM |
| UAB | Tulane | -3.5 | -5.2 | Saturday | 8:00 PM |
| Troy | UL-Monroe | 24 | 25.2 | Saturday | 8:00 PM |
| Hawaii | NMSU | 17 | 19.8 | Saturday | 8:00 PM |
| New Mexico | UTEP | 1 | 3.4 | Saturday | 9:00 PM |
| California | Washington | -7.5 | -11.7 | Saturday | 9:30 PM |
| USF | BYU | -23 | -23.4 | Saturday | 10:15 PM |
| Colorado | Arizona State | -14.5 | -14.6 | Saturday | 10:30 PM |
| Arizona | Oregon | -28.5 | -29.8 | Saturday | 10:30 PM |
| Oregon State | USC | -11 | -10.4 | Saturday | 10:30 PM |
Neutral site games
*Chicago (Soldier Field)
**Arlington (AT&T Stadium)
***Atlanta (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)
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Liberty (-6) at Syracuse
ATL: Liberty -7.1
Friday 8:00p
Last October, Liberty destroyed Syracuse 38-21 in the Carrier Dome. The Flames finished that season 10-1, upsetting No. 25 Virginia Tech in Blacksburg 38-35 as 16.5-point underdogs and knocking off previously-undefeated Coastal Carolina in the bowl game. The only loss was a 15-14 setback at NC State as four-point underdogs.
Since then, Liberty has only improved. The Flames returned 22-of-24 starters when you include kicker and punter, including all 11 starters on offense. Most notably QB Malik Willis, a candidate to go 1.1 in April. I comp Willis to Lamar Jackson. He leads the country in QBR and is completing 71% of his passes on 9.7 YPA with a 7/0 TD/INT ratio to go with 225 rushing yards and four more scores. Willis’ 11 total touchdowns without an interception ranks No. 2 in the country.
Nine starters returned on a Liberty defense that finished top-25 nationally in total defense last fall. That unit looks improved in 2021 -- it ranks No. 12 in scoring defense, No. 29 in passing yards allowed, and No. 10 in rushing yards allowed.
Liberty has covered 10 straight spreads (the last time Liberty didn’t cover was a 28-7 win on Oct. 3, 2020 against North Alabama). I don’t see any reason they can’t push that streak to 11.
Syracuse came into the season 3-15 SU over their last 18. Syracuse’s three-easiest games came right away: Ohio, Rutgers, and Albany. The Orange are 2-1, with a 10-point home loss to Rutgers. After Liberty, the ACC slate begins, and it’s going to be a tough sled: vs. Wake Forest, vs. Boston College, vs. Pitt, at Florida State, at Louisville, at NC State, at Virginia Tech and vs. Clemson.
Syracuse’s fatal flaw is an inability to throw the ball. It’s the reason I think the Orange are going to finish 3-9 or 4-8. Once Willis and the Flames start to pull away, Syracuse will be powerless to stop them.
Middle Tennessee (+3) at Charlotte
ATL: MTSU -5.6
Friday 6:30p
Florida Atlantic (+4) at Air Force
ATL: FAU -7.2
Saturday 8:00p
Mississippi State (+2.5) vs. LSU
ATL: MSU -0.8
Saturday 12:00p
For the last three picks in last week’s column, I took three underdogs that ATL said should be favored. All three underdogs went on to win outright (Utah State over Air Force, Memphis over Mississippi State, and Oklahoma State over Boise State). I was sent screenshots of three-team moneyline parlays some of you had thrown together at a payout of 22-to-1.
Since that worked out so well, let’s try it again. This week, ATL says that Middle Tennessee, Florida Atlantic and Mississippi State should all be favored.
MTSU-Charlotte: Charlotte still appears to be getting extra credit on the line for their season-opening upset win over Duke. Since then, things haven’t gone so well. Last week, the wheels fell off in a 20-9 loss at Georgia State, with the offense looking rudderless and the defense allowing 437 yards. Middle Tennessee’s offense has been far better with Chase Cunningham behind center than transfer Bailey Hockman. The job is now Cunningham’s after Hockman left the program this past week after getting benched. Cunningham has completed 19-of-30 attempts for 259 yards with a 3/0 TD/INT ratio. MTSU has played a tough schedule (Virginia Tech and UTSA), so don’t read into the 1-2 start too much. Charlotte is ranked bottom-20 in the country by SP+.
FAU-Air Force: It’s extremely, extremely rare to see a discrepancy this big between my line and the PointsBet line. The public is fading an FAU team that must travel across the country into altitude for a game that will kick at 8p local time in Boca Raton. But Air Force has been getting too much credit on the line this year -- they were one of the three favorites I picked against last week at the end of the column (Utah State upset AF 49-45). FAU has already shown it can defend the option, blasting Georgia Southern 38-6 a few weeks ago. The Owls also appear to have a real offense this year, with former Miami QB N’Kosi Perry taking over behind center. We have a ton of leeway here between objective reality and the books’ unfounded bullishness on Air Force. Apparently sharp bettors agree with me: This line has fallen from Air Force -6.5 to Air Force -4 in the past 48 hours.
MSU-LSU: LSU starting LT Cameron Wire is almost assuredly going to miss his third-straight game with a knee injury. When announcing that news to the media, HC Ed Orgeron mentioned that it’s an ongoing concern that an offensive line that hasn’t jelled is trying to find a replacement for its anchor. LSU was blasted by Mississippi State last year. I’m not sure the Tigers have the defense to get revenge. The pass defense is still getting torched for big plays (No. 127 in passing explosion against).
Ohio (+15) at Northwestern
ATL: Northwestern -10.5
Saturday 12:00p
Northwestern has beaten Indiana State, and lost to Michigan State and Duke. And let me tell you after watching them with my own two eyes, reader: The Wildcats are bad. The defense, which lost a ton of talent over the offseason, has been poor against the run and the pass.
The offense couldn’t complete forward passes with Hunter Johnson under center. Johnson was mercifully pulled last week, but as soon as QB Andrew Marty had led a few touchdowns drives, Marty went down with an injury. At the time we went to press late-Thursday afternoon, it remained unclear what Marty’s status was. And for that matter, who would start at quarterback for Northwestern on Saturday between Johnson, Marty and Ryan Hilinski.
On the other side, as a team, Ohio does only one thing well: Run the ball. The Bobcats rank top-50 in SP+ rushing efficiency and top-20 in SP+ rushing opportunity rate. Ohio plays at a snail’s pace (No. 98 adjusted tempo) and try to shorten the game (No. 129 in plays per game and No. 130 in drives per game) to protect their shaky defense.
Northwestern doesn’t have the run defense to stop Ohio’s running game from doing what it wants to do. It’s also true Ohio doesn’t have the run defense to stop Northwestern’s run game. But I’ll take two touchdowns-plus with the underdog in this situation -- a running-clock run-a-thon -- every single time. Especially when ATL says we’re getting 4.5 points of line value across the ever-important 13-14 threshold.
UTSA (+3) at Memphis
ATL: Memphis -0.8
Saturday 3:30p
ATL feels this game should be more like a pick ‘em, and I agree with that. I was on Memphis last week when they upset Mississippi State 31-29, but it’s fair to note that the Tigers benefited from a referee error. SP+ gave Memphis a 7% win expectancy and MSU a -15.5 adjusted scoring margin. Memphis’ two other wins are over an FCS team and a 55-50 victory against SP+ No. 105 Arkansas State, a team with a new coaching staff.
UTSA, also 3-0, has upset a Power 5 team on the road (Illinois) in a game SP+ said was no fluke (82% postgame win expectancy). UTSA also beat an FCS team by 54 and Middle Tennessee by 14. The Roadrunners have a run-dominant offense (RB Sincere McCormick is an NFL talent), a solid defense, and a legitimate top-20 special teams units.
This is an enormous game for UTSA, and the Roadrunners know it: SP+ gives UTSA a 50% or higher win expectancy in every other game on the schedule. Beat Memphis, and a dream season is within reach.
Wyoming (-30.5) at UConn
ATL: Wyoming -29.5
Saturday 3:30p
Last week, we took one game off our “auto-bet against UConn” 2021 mandate because the Huskies were 34-point underdogs against Army, and Army is one of the worst in the nation at covering huge numbers due to their triple-option offense, slow pace-of-play, and willingness to become a fullback-dive offense in the second halves of blowouts.
This decision admittedly looked dubious early. Army led 42-0 at halftime. Trailing 49-7 with two minutes left in the third quarter, UConn returned a kick for a TD to cut it to 49-14. Following an Army field goal in the middle of the fourth, UConn had a 10-play, 88-yard drive that ended in a touchdown in the final two minutes to give the Huskies the inspirational 52-21 backdoor cover.
The Huskies are now starting freshmen all over the place, including under center. In the last week, UConn told their assistant coaches that they wouldn’t be retained next season -- how motivated do you think those assistants were to spend late nights in the office this week preparing for Wyoming?
Last week, the Cowboys slapped around Ball State by 32 and didn’t start to yank its starters until the middle of the fourth quarter despite a 31-0 halftime lead that had swelled to 38-6 with 11 minutes left. Wyoming, 3-0, can pick the score.
Baylor (+7) vs. Iowa State
ATL: ISU -4.4
Saturday 3:30p
Inflated line. The books haven’t adjusted Iowa State’s prices downward enough from the preseason — in part because of the idea that the butt-kicking they took from Iowa was fluky — and they haven’t adjusted Baylor enough going the other way.
That’s because the 3-0 Bears haven’t played much of a schedule (Texas State, Texas Southern and Kansas) yet. But I think Baylor is more improved than the public realizes. And if you read or listened to me over the summer, you know I wasn’t buying Iowa State as a top-10 team.
Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon is the only Big 12 quarterback with at least five touchdown passes who hasn’t thrown an interception. Bohanon has upgraded Baylor’s quarterback position over veteran noodle-armed QB Charlie Brewer, who lasted three games with Utah before the Utes pulled the plug and Brewer opted to transfer again.
ATL says we’re getting 2.6 free points on the line. Personally, I think it’s more like 3.5-4 points — in a vacuum, this line should be closer to Iowa State -3. I’ll be tossing a little bit on the moneyline as well: Baylor is a live home ‘dog.
Western Kentucky (+9) vs. Indiana
ATL: Indiana -3.1
Saturday 8:00 PM
Precarious situational spot for the Hoosiers. Indiana has played a gauntlet schedule so far, taking losses to two top-10 teams with nasty defenses: Iowa and Cincy.
The Hoosiers were outscored 21-3 over the final 19 minutes in last Saturday’s 38-24 loss to Cincinnati. Now, Indiana turns around with a strangely-scheduled late-September road trip to Western Kentucky. WKU’s new Air Raid offense is, schematically, a night-and-day difference from what IU has seen so far against Iowa, Idaho and Cincinnati.
Indiana has another brutal matchup on deck next week against Penn State, the third top-10 opponent to arrive on IU’s schedule. It’s fair to wonder if the Hoosiers will overlook the Hilltoppers.
And it’s also fair to wonder how healthy the Hoosiers are following the hairy early-season schedule. QB Michael Penix Jr. hurt his throwing hand against Cincinnati. X-rays came back negative. But I’m wondering how healthy Penix actually is.
He was rushed back from a torn ACL suffered in November, his third-straight season-ending injury, and has not looked himself (48.1% completions and 5.1 YPA on a 4/6 TD/INT rate). Penix has notably been less mobile, and, confined to the pocket, has shown limitations with his accuracy and ability to stretch the field even when not dealing with ancillary injuries like the hand issue that’s currently plaguing him.
ATL says the Hoosiers should only be field-goal favorites. Take the free points and don’t be surprised if the Hilltoppers pull the upset.
Nebraska (+5) at Michigan State
ATL: Michigan State -2.4
Saturday 7:00 PM
Huge fan of what Mel Tucker is doing at Michigan State. And I’m on record saying that this is Scott Frost’s last year at Nebraska. I’m backing the Cornhuskers in this spot anyway.
This is a classic letdown spot for Michigan State following last week’s 38-17 upset win at Miami. That final score was inflated by a fourth quarter where Sparty outscored the Hurricanes 21-3 courtesy of two Miami fumbles inside their own-30. SP+ gave Michigan State a +11.5 postgame adjusted scoring margin -- more like a 28-17 win.
Nebraska isn’t as bad as their 2-2 record indicates. The Cornhuskers outgained Illinois in the season-opening 30-22 loss (both teams turned it over once) and finished only 24 yards short of Oklahoma in last week’s 23-16 narrow-miss. That game’s only turnover was Oklahoma CB D.J. Graham’s gravity-defying interception near the goal line.
The spot sets up well for an ambush. Situational trends scream for that reading as well. In its last 13 as a home favorite, Sparty is 1-12 ATS. Nebraska has also given Michigan State fits going back years. In eight games since 1995, Nebraska is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS against Michigan State.
This spot is a dramatic shift for Tucker’s undefeated Spartans, which are being installed as favorites against a P5 opponent for the first time this year. Michigan State’s rise has coincided with UCLA’s. Last week, after starting 3-0, UCLA was stunned late by Fresno State.
Outside of last week, 3-0 Sparty has beaten an FCS opponent and Northwestern (and you know my feelings about Northwestern). At first blush, this line feels light. But the more you dig into it, and the more objective you get, looking only at the numbers, removing the visceral feelings you felt when Nebraska was getting upset by Illinois in the opener and last week as Michigan State was piling it on Miami late, the more it starts to feel like Nebraska is the side getting shorted. And that’s certainly ATL’s stance -- it feels this spread should be under a field goal.
This feels like a low-scoring, ground-dominated, clock-running matchup that gets settled by a field goal late in the fourth quarter.
2021: 12-9-1 (57.1%) ATS
2014-2020: 610-540-17 (53.0%) ATS
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