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Last Saturday was business as usual for the Irish. They dominated Navy from start to finish, holding the Midshipmen to a paltry 181 yards en route to a 34-6 victory. As the Irish look forward to this Saturday’s game against a tough Virginia Cavaliers team, the game revolves around one thing: injuries.
For the Irish, injuries have become aplenty over the last few weeks. It started with star TE Michael Mayer injuring his groin against Cincinnati. He has since come back healthy, but it didn’t stop there. Against USC, star safety Kyle Hamilton injured his knee trying to make a play on a ball thrown to USC’s Drake London. It looked really rough. He missed the last two games, but hopes are that he can play this weekend in Charlottesville. Head coach Brian Kelly was asked Monday about Hamilton’s status and he said “I don’t know.”
Along with Hamilton, the Irish were also dealt a devastating blow in losing WR Avery Davis to a torn ACL. In the fourth quarter, Davis was bracing to make a block on a run by Kyren Williams and his leg gave out without any contact. A graduate student, Davis will have a sixth year of eligibility afforded to him if he wants to return. His injury leaves the Irish in a major bind. After star WR Kevin Austin, the Irish have just four other receivers on scholarship, with three of them being true freshmen. As the Irish are looking to contend for a playoff spot, this is a tough spot to be in.
On the other side of the field, Virginia is dealing with its own major injury. In an absolutely enthralling game against BYU two weeks ago, star QB Brennan Armstrong threw an interception late in the fourth quarter and got hit on the play As he walked off the field, Armstrong was seen holding his torso and yelling to the coaching staff “it’s my ribs.” Bronco Mendenhall addressed Armstrong’s injury on Monday by stating “I probably won’t have an update until the ball is wicked off and we all look out there and see who our quarterback is.” He did reiterate that he expected Armstrong to play on Saturday.
Armstrong is the lifeblood of this Virginia team. He has led the Cavaliers to 40-points four times on the season with a fifth game at 39, while also being second in the nation in passing yards (3,557) and fifth in passing touchdowns (27). Not having him on Saturday night would be a massive blow to a 6-3 Cavaliers that has aspirations to make the ACC Championship Game and a New Years Six Bowl.
With all of the injuries for both teams, there is a lot to consider with the betting lines provided by PointsBet Sportsbook. Let’s break them down.
Notre Dame (-5.5) @ Virginia
As was alluded to earlier, this game hinges on injuries. With the belief that Brennan Armstrong will play, that means everything for the Cavaliers. Armstrong is responsible for 78 percent of their offense which includes his 271 yards on the ground. He will be the reason that the Cavaliers either win or are in this game.
Armstrong does have some good weapons on the outside led by Dontayvion Wicks. He has been the big-play guy for Virginia, amassing 70+ yard scores in the last two games. Wicks only has 42 receptions on the year which ranks third on the team, but his 23.1 yards per catch average which ranks fourth in the nation. If the Cavaliers want to cover or win this game, they will need to connect on some explosive plays against a defense that is average in big-play rate (20+ yards) at 7.4 percent of plays.
For the Irish, continuing to build on the offensive line gelling will be key. Quarterback Jack Coan has been a stabilizing force the last three games for the Irish. He has a 72.8 completion percentage with four total touchdowns and only one interception. With Tommy Rees’ offense that relies on the running game and crisp, short passes, Coan is the right guy to maximize it with minimal mistakes.
The spread itself is an interesting debate. The Irish have won their last four ATS and are 2-1 on the road. The Cavaliers are 4-1 both in their last five and at home this season. When trying to find the deciding metric, one stands out. The Irish aren’t just winning games, but also against the spread, where they have covered the spread by an impressive 4.3 points. They should be able to do the same against Virginia on Saturday, especially if Armstrong is unable to go.
Pick: Notre Dame -5.5
Line: Over/Under 64.5
These teams can score. Virginia averages 38.9 points per game and Notre Dame averages 32.8, a combined 71.7 points per game. For how high octane the Cavaliers offense is, the over has not been the most fruitful of bets at 3-7 in their last ten games. On the other side, the Irish are 5-5 in their last 10 and have alternated wins and losses over their last eight games. WIth both teams primed to score points in bunches, and their averages 7.2 points above the over, that’s the direction to go. There is a catch: this pick is under if Brennan Armstrong is unable to go, as the Cavalier offense will not be nearly as potent with redshirt freshman Iraken Armstead likely getting the start.
Irish Pick ‘Em Predictor Contest
This is going to be something very fun for Notre Dame fans moving forward. Each week, head to the NBC Sports Predictor app and submit picks for Irish Pick ‘Em, a free-to-play contest with weekly cash prizes including a $10,000 jackpot. Participants can download the NBC Sports Predictor app, then search the “Special Contests” section for each week’s contest featuring Notre Dame. The weekly contest will include seven different prop questions, each with multiple answer options.
Notre Dame Passing Yards
<200, 200-220, 221-238, 239-270, 271-300, 301-320, 321+
The 280 passing yards for the Irish this past week were the most for the Irish since week five against Cincinnati. It was also the only game where the Irish trailed by double digits and needed to mount a comeback. This game could pose a similar challenge for the Irish. Virginia loves to air it out, with Armstrong second in the nation with 395.2 passing yards per game. It has turned into points with the Cavaliers 11th in the nation at 38.9 points per game. With Virginia being a big threat to score, look for the Irish to air it out more than usual.
Pick: 239-270
Notre Dame Rushing Yards
<50, 50-70, 71-100, 101-125, 126-150, 151-172, 173-210, 211+
After failing to average more than 90 yards rushing per game after the first six games, the Kyren Williams led rushing attack has broken 150 yards in each of the last three games. With the renaissance of the Irish rushing attack, they feel primed to continue that breakout with the Cavaliers 122nd in the nation allowing 219.1 yards per game. The Irish should feast on a porous run defense.
Pick: 151-172
Notre Dame Pass Completions
0-16, 17-18, 19-20, 21-22, 23-24, 25-26, 27-28, 29+
The Irish have been consistently between the 17 and 24 mark on this stat, including matching their season-high. With the Irish facing off against SP+'s seventh-ranked offense, they will need to put up some more points than they have had to in previous weeks. When they faced North Carolina’s fourth-ranked SP+ offense, the Irish allowed 34 points, and numerous big plays. With a healthy Brennan Armstrong, expect Virginia to do much of the same and the Irish to try and match them with big plays of their own. The young group of receivers will be aided by Kevin Austin and Michael Mayer early and often as they get more comfortable.
Pick: 25-26
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Notre Dame First Downs
0-16, 17-18, 19-20, 21-22, 23-24, 25-26, 27+
After two straight games with 26 first downs, the Irish reverted back to the mean with 21 against the Midshipmen. They have averaged 21.2 first downs on the season and their total has spiked with great rushing performances. Three of their four best rushing performances have equated directly to their three best performances on first downs. If the Irish have a great day running the football, their first downs are likely to match it.
Pick: 25-26
Notre Dame Second Half Points
0-7, 8-13, 14-16, 17-20, 21-27, 28+
Notre Dame’s first-half points have been much easier to track. They have scored 10 points four times, 14 twice, and 17 twice. The second half has been quite a bit different. They have ranged from 13 to 27 with totals across the board. If they are to win this game, they will do so by getting a lead in the first half and controlling the ball in the second half. Points will be needed, but a shootout will be less likely.
Pick: 21-27
Notre Dame Longest Play
<30, 30-35, 36-41, 42-53, 54-64, 65-75, 76+
Last week was the Irish’s second-consecutive week with a play over 70 yards. On the season, they are averaging 1.11 plays per game of 40+ yards with six of those being over 50. Virginia is 118th in the nation in allowing big plays (20+ yards) at 9.7 percent. The Irish should have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of that on Saturday night.
Pick: 42-53
Notre Dame Points Scored
After putting up 44 points against the Tar Heels, it feels like a similar outcome against the Cavaliers. Both average the same amount of points per game (38.9) and they are both top-seven offenses in SP+. The Irish have shown that they can hang in a shootout, but I believe this will be less of a shootout while points will still be put up. This game will mirror the game Virginia played against North Carolina more than the one the Irish played against the same Tar Heels.
Pick: 41 points
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