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The process can be an absolute beast. We have weekends when the process hits and we feel like geniuses. And we have weekends when the process falls flat on its face.
Still picking gravel out of my nose on a Tuesday morning, it’s safe to say the Week 11 process was one of the bigger faceplants I’ve had in my college football DFS career.
While I’ll always love seeing my weekly mispriced player turn into a solid hit (Tyler Lavine, 20.2 points), the absolute disasters that came from Jayden Daniels/Kayshon Boutte and Kaleb Smith were devastating.
Trusting Notre Dame running backs continues to be another painfully bad downfall, as Logan Diggs posted a 13-31-0 rushing line in a game where Notre Dame was limited on the ground against a Navy all-day. And Garrett Greene, West Virginia’s backup quarterback, emerged to lead the team in rushing with 14-119-2 after taking over for a benched J.T. Daniels against Oklahoma.
Sometimes the best thing we can do is brush ourselves off and get after the next week. With Week 12 upon us, here are the players I’m banking on to redeem me after a down-bad Week 11.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
The Play Rates
Team | Rush Rate | Pass Rate |
Arizona | 41.3% | 57.6% |
Baylor | 55.4% | 43.3% |
Boston College | 36.0% | 62.5% |
Clemson | 53.7% | 46.2% |
East Carolina | 46.6% | 53.1% |
Georgia | 47.7% | 52.3% |
Houston | 42.8% | 56.0% |
Illinois | 55.8% | 43.9% |
Indiana | 35.8% | 63.3% |
Kansas | 54.9% | 44.3% |
Kansas State | 56.4% | 43.6% |
Kentucky | 52.1% | 46.9% |
Louisville | 54.6% | 44.6% |
Maryland | 48.0% | 51.6% |
Miami | 45.9% | 53.8% |
Michigan | 60.8% | 39.0% |
Michigan State | 43.5% | 55.6% |
NC State | 47.9% | 51.3% |
Nebraska | 50.5% | 48.7% |
Notre Dame | 60.0% | 39.7% |
Ohio State | 51.2% | 48.6% |
Penn State | 50.4% | 49.6% |
Rutgers | 52.5% | 47.0% |
TCU | 52.0% | 47.8% |
Texas | 47.2% | 52.7% |
Washington State | 33.2% | 66.1% |
West Virginia | 46.6% | 52.7% |
Wisconsin | 56.6% | 42.0% |
Quarterback Rush Attempts
Player | Team | Attempts | Yards | Touchdowns |
Arizona | 15 | 319 | 3 | |
Baylor | 26 | 163 | 2 | |
Boston College | 27 | 168 | 1 | |
Boston College | 2 | 86 | 0 | |
Clemson | 88 | 497 | 5 | |
East Carolina | 31 | 216 | 5 | |
Georgia | 26 | 194 | 7 | |
Houston | 47 | 526 | 5 | |
Illinois | 32 | 186 | 4 | |
Indiana | 18 | 50 | 1 | |
Kansas | 49 | 338 | 5 | |
Kansas | 25 | 243 | 4 | |
Kansas State | 84 | 680 | 10 | |
Kentucky | 23 | 88 | 2 | |
Malik Cunningham | Louisville | 68 | 629 | 11 |
Brock Domann | Louisville | 12 | 89 | 1 |
Maryland | 22 | 181 | 3 | |
Miami | 34 | 226 | 0 | |
Miami | 9 | 47 | 0 | |
Michigan | 29 | 253 | 3 | |
Michigan State | 26 | 171 | 0 | |
NC State | 41 | 106 | 1 | |
Nebraska | 14 | 128 | 5 | |
Notre Dame | 17 | 158 | 2 | |
C.J. Stroud | Ohio State | 19 | 104 | 0 |
Penn State | 25 | 192 | 4 | |
Rutgers | 16 | 146 | 0 | |
Rutgers | 13 | 49 | 1 | |
Rutgers | 9 | 27 | 0 | |
TCU | 54 | 412 | 4 | |
Texas | 6 | 10 | 0 | |
Washington State | 22 | 213 | 3 | |
Garrett Greene | West Virginia | 24 | 204 | 3 |
West Virginia | 9 | 39 | 1 | |
Wisconsin | 11 | 77 | 1 |
Mispriced Player of the Week
Nakia Watson, RB (Washingon State)
DraftKings Price: $3,800
Running back Jaylen Jenkins returned in Week 11 against Arizona State after missing Week 10 and was expected to be the team’s “starter” but he took an obvious backseat to Nakia Watson. Jenkins toted the ball seven times for 43 yards in the win over Arizona State, while Watson handled 20 carries for 116 yards and three touchdowns, adding two receptions for 42 additional yards.
Over the last two weeks, Watson has totaled 36 carries for 282 yards and four touchdowns, averaging an impressive 7.8 YPC while forcing 10 missed tackles.
Given his recent play, Watson is going to be hard to sit in this week’s game against Arizona, whose defense is allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game (218.7) and nearly three rushing touchdowns per game. Playing on a pass-heavy Cougars team, Watson has seen 12+ carries in five of eight games this season and is averaging a solid 3.56 YCO/ATT.
Priced on DraftKings as Washington State’s RB3, Watson could prove to be a wildly mispriced player on the slate given his recent string of success.
Cameron Ward, QB (Washington State)
DraftKings Price: $6,800
As previously mentioned, Washington State is one of the more pass-heavy teams in the nation. Throwing at a 66.1% rate, the Cougars are second only to Mississippi State in pass rate (71.3%) and are taking on a lousy Arizona defense.
Much like their inability to slow the run, Arizona is also allowing the 32nd-most passing yards per game in the nation (253.4) and are allowing 2.1 touchdowns per game through the air. Cameron Ward, who is in his first season with the Cougars after transferring from Incarnate Word, has thrown for 2,579 yards, 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions, and has added another 22-213-3 on the ground.
Ward won’t blow you away with aggressive play -- his 7.3 aDOT ranks dead last among every quarterback on the slate -- but his high volume and generous $6,800 price point still make him an intriguing option. Wide receiver De’Zhaun Stribling ($6,000) leads the team with a line of 41-512-5 on 61 targets, while Donovan Ollie ($4,300) is close behind at 38-404-3 on 58 targets. Both players are easy to stack with Ward and would correlate nicely with Arizona wide receiver Jacob Cowing ($7,600) on the bring-back.
This weekend’s matchup between Washington State and Arizona has a projected total of 63 points. A DFS onslaught of the two sides could turn into DFS gold if things break right.
Will Howard, QB (Kansas State)
DraftKings Price: $6,400
Kansas States’ Adrian Martinez is expected to be sidelined for the next several weeks with a leg injury, giving way to Will Howard to start this weekend against the Mountaineers.
Howard, who started three games for the Wildcats last season, has taken a massive step forward in 2022. The junior quarterback has thrown for 717-9-1 in three games -- which includes just one start -- and has also rushed for 17-39-1. He will now lead the 7-3 Wildcats in a road matchup against a 4-6 West Virginia team that’s allowing the 19th-most passing yards per game (268.0) and nearly 150 rushing yards per game on the ground.
Despite a limited sample size, Howard has been efficient with his opportunities. He’s completed eight of 16 deep ball attempts per PFF, turning them into 226 yards and three touchdowns. his 9.9 aDOT ranks 15th among qualified quarterbacks on this weekend’s slate, while his 8.5 YPA is good for eighth-best. Averaging an impressive three touchdown passes per game, Howard needs 20.4 points to triple his value on the weekend. If his hot start is any indication, he’ll have a good chance at reaching that mark against the Mountaineers.
Braelon Allen, RB (Wisconsin)
DraftKings Price: $7,000
For better or worse I’m going to have some action on Braelon Allen this weekend.
Wisconsin’s sophomore back has rushed for 1,029 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season and plays on a team that’s establishing the run at a 56.6% rate. The fact that the Badgers get a Nebraska defense that’s allowing the 20th-most rushing yards per game (191.0) and ranks 122nd in rushing defense success rate (50.4%) only adds to my interest in playing Allen despite his price.
Allen is averaging 18.9 carries per game to go along with 102.9 rushing yards per game. Running back Chez Mellusi, who has missed the last few weeks with an injury, has returned to practice and could play this weekend -- which could eat into Allen’s workload a bit, but Allen is hard to be against in a game where Wisconsin is favored by 13 points.
Game script should allow the Badgers to run their preferred style of offense, and their line should have no trouble bullying a Nebraska run defense that’s graded as the 11th worst in the nation by PFF (58.2).
Dallan Hayden, RB (Ohio State)
DraftKings Price: $3,700
This is one to watch heading into the weekend, but Ohio State’s Dallan Hayden has a chance to start against Maryland -- who is fresh off a 30-0 loss to Penn State.
Hayden was called upon last week against Indiana after running back Miyan Williams was carted off in the first half and was spotted with a walking boot and crutches in the second half. Whether or not Williams plays this weekend against Maryland is to be determined, but there’s reason to believe the Buckeyes won’t force him out at less than 100% in a game the Buckeyes should win handily.
In addition to Williams’ injury, running back TreVeyon Henderson hasn’t played since Week 9 and is dealing with a foot injury. Again, this should be an easy win for the Buckeyes and there’s no reason to force a star player out there in a game that can be won without them.
Back to Hayden.
In last week’s win over Indiana, the freshman running back turned in a solid 19-102-1 day and has rushed for 73-357-2 on the season. He’s a back capable of being used in a pinch and would get a Maryland defense that’s allowing 215+ rushing yards in three straight games.
If Williams and Henderson are unable to go in a game that Ohio State is favored in by 27.5 points, Hayden has a chance to turn into a massive value at his $3,700 price. Keep an eye on this one throughout the week, and have your lineups ready to be adjusted for the 3:30 PM EST kickoff.
Samuel Brown, WR (Houston)
DraftKings Price: $4,200
Samuel Brown transferred to Houston after spending the last two seasons at West Virginia. Through his first four games of the season, Brown saw just two targets and didn’t catch a pass until Week 5 against Tulane.
However, over the last five weeks, Brown has seven or more targets in every game and is averaging 76.0 yards per game to go with 6.8 receptions per game. Playing on a Houston offense that’s throwing at a 56% rate, Brown should have plenty of opportunities to produce against an East Carolina defense that’s allowing the 23rd-most passing yards per game (262.0) and ranks 107th in success rate against the pass (46.1%).
Brown has two two-touchdown games to his name over the last five weeks and three games in which he went for 80+ yards. At $4,200, Brown could be a solid pivot off Nathaniel Dell ($8,200) if you’re looking to get a little different. Since Week 6, Brown is second on the Cougars in overall targets (27) but he’s being priced as Houston’s WR3. Even KeSean Carter, who has the third-most targets over that span (23) is an interesting play at $4,000. He’s served as the team’s slot receiver all year long, playing out of the slot at a 96.3% rate.
Xavier Worthy, WR (Texas)
DraftKings Price: $6,500
It’s been a while since Xavier Worthy has given us a big game -- but that could change this weekend against the Jayhawks.
In Worthy’s defense, he’s been anything but bad. The junior receiver has logged seven touchdowns in his last six games, but he hasn’t surpassed 100 yards since Week 5 against West Virginia. Ever the target hog, Worthy has seen double-digit targets in three of his last four games and should have a chance to make a few big plays against a Kansas defense that’s allowing 277.0 passing yards per game.
Price as the 13th-most expensive receiver on the slate, Worthy ranks eighth among said receivers in targets (87) and is tied for fifth in touchdowns (8). Texas is favored by nine points on the road in a game that’s projected total currently sits at 64 points.
Everything about Worthy’s volume suggests his recent performances should be far better than they’ve been. With a generous matchup against Kansas on tap, Worthy’s production matching his volume wouldn’t be the most surprising thing on the weekend.
