All lines provided by BetMGM
Wake Forest at Duke (-12.5) | 45 - Opened (-7.5) | 44.5 (Thursday Night)
Wake Forest’s offensive output has cratered in conjunction with program icon Sam Hartman moving onto Notre Dame. The Deacons are averaging 4.64 yards per play (118th), 1.53 points per drive (also 118th) and rank a staggering 128th in EPA/Play. That is a stark departure from a Wake Forest offense that has averaged at least 36 points and 443 yards per game in each of their last three seasons. For perspective, Wake is averaging a paltry 20.1 points and 344 yards per game this year, 16 points and 99 yards less than their 2022 iteration. Defensively they’re allowing 8.25 yards per pass, which ranks 107th, and have lost four of their last five games. Their lone ACC victory came in a close game against a limping Pitt Panthers where WF had a coin flip 56% win expectancy.
Duke started the year 5-1 with their only loss coming in a very close game against Notre Dame where they had a 44% win expectancy. However star QB Riley Leonard sprained an ankle against ND on September 30 and didn’t play again until October 21st versus Florida State where he was still visibly compromised, accruing just 69 yards while completing just 7-of-16 pass attempts. By the time Thursday rolls around, he will have had over a month to recover and will be looking to resurrect the Blue Devils’ offense that averaged 34.6 PPG in their five victories, and 11.3 PPG in their three losses with a hobbled Leonard. Thanks to defensive Svengali HC Mike Elko, there are no such concerns about Duke’s ability to play D. They are allowing just 1.3 points per drive (10th), 4.85 yards per play (17th) and 16 PPG (11th) which are all elite marks.
This game opened at -7.5, at which point the sharps unloaded on this line, which accounted for a giant five point jump to the current -12.5. I think this game keeps creeping up and hits the key number 14 before kickoff, so I’m backing the Blue Devils (-12.5) in what I think will be a get-right blowout spot for Duke.
Washington at USC (+3.5) | 76.5 - Opened (+3.5) | 71.5
This game total opened at 71.5 and has since rocketed up to a sky-high 76.5 points, which is completely understandable considering the powerful scoring capabilities of each program.
Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams has led the Trojans’ offense to 46 points per game, which leads the country. USC also ranks in the top-10 in yards per play (7.47), yards per pass (9.4) and EPA/Play. However defensively they have been absolutely torched, allowing 32.6 PPG (107th) and ranking 116th in run defense while checking in at 112th nationally in EPA/Play. USC has sported a win expectancy of 15% or less in each of their last three games, somehow managing to pull out a narrow 50-49 shootout victory over Cal last week.
Washington has needed some late game heroics to remain undefeated, with a Q4 pick-six providing the margin of victory over Arizona State. Arizona and Oregon were right there with Washington in their one-score losses, and a rebuilding Stanford put up 33 points on the Huskies last weekend. While their pass defense has been credible in allowing just 6.2 yards per pass (16th), their rush defense ranks 93rd nationally and has been lit up for 32 or more points in three of their last five games.
Washington is averaging 40.4 points per game (7th in nation), while USC is putting up 46 PPG. The Trojans are currently 8-1 to the Over against far less potent teams than Washington, which is why we’ve seen this line skyrocket to 76. Even so, I think these two lethal offenses are simply too explosive to be suppressed by these two porous defenses, so i’m taking the Over 76.5 points in what should be a scoring bonanza at The Coliseum.
Kansas State at Texas (-4) | 51.5 - Opened (-7) | 52.5
You have to hand it to the Big-12 defending champion Wildcats, as Kansas State ranked 106th in defensive returning production and opened at 3-2 with losses to Missouri and Oklahoma State temporarily taking the wind out of their sails. However KSU has rebounded nicely by dropping three dominant victories in a row against Texas Tech, TCU and Houston where they averaged 40 points per game en route to destroying Houston and TCU by a combined score of 81-3 in their last two contests. Their devastating backfield duo of DJ Giddens and Treshaun Ward have had the luxury of running behind NFL-caliber LT Cooper Beebe, with Kansas State ranking sixth overall in team rushing performance. Defensively the Cats ranks top-25 in several key categories such as points per drive (1.57 = 23rd), success rate (36.5% = 24th), EPA/Play (23rd) and points per game (18.1 PPG = 17th).
With Texas, so much rides on the health of starting QB Quinn Ewers, who suffered a sprained AC joint two weeks ago which led to backup QB Maalik Murphy starting against a pitiful BYU team that is still adjusting to the rigors of their inaugural Big 12 campaign. With UT comfortably in control and cruising to a 35-6 victory, Murphy only attempted 25 passes, completing 16 for 170 yards and a 2-to-1 ratio. His interception was a bad one, throwing off his back foot while being pressured and sailing the pass into the waiting arms of a BYU defender that never had a chance of being completed. While Murphy was a suitable placeholder, I have my doubts that he can navigate the surging Kansas State defense in the same manner that he was able to handle an overmatched BYU.
This line quickly dropped from Texas -7 to -4 with Ewers’ week-to-week status leaving his availability this week in question. If he isn’t able to suit up, I’m backing Kansas State (+4) who should be keying on RB Jonathan Brooks and make Murphy prove that he can make the correct reads under pressure.
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Other notable Line Movement:
TCU @ Texas Tech (-3) | 59.5 - Opened (-3.5) | 56.5
BC at Syracuse (-2.5) | 51.5 - Opened (-4.5) | 52.5
Jacksonville State vs. South Carolina (-14.5) | 54.5 - Opened (-16.5) | 57.5
Michigan State at Nebraska (-3) | 34.5 - Opened (-3.5) | 38.5
LSU at Alabama (-3) | 60.5 - Opened (-4.5) | 58.5
BetMGM College Football Insights: Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Current)
- Georgia +275 to +250
- Florida State +750 to +600
- Oregon +3500 to +1400
Highest Ticket%
- Michigan 13.7%
- Ohio State 9.8%
- Colorado 9.1%
Highest Handle%
- Alabama 31.7%
- Michigan 10.9%
- Colorado 9.6%
Biggest Liability
- Colorado
- Alabama
- USC
BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy
Line movement (open, current)
- Michael Penix Jr. +1600, +275
- JJ McCarthy +2500, +300
- Caleb Williams +500, +8000
- Shedeur Sanders +12500, +25000
- Travis Hunter +15000, off the board
Highest Ticket%
- Shedeur Sanders 15.8%
- Travis Hunter 12.7%
- Caleb Williams 10.7%
Highest Handle%
- Caleb Williams 16.0%
- Shedeur Sanders 14.6%
- Michael Penix Jr. 11.1%
