Vaughn Dalzell breaks down two rivalry games between Michigan vs Michigan State and Air Force vs Navy, plus Tennessee at Alabama and Minnesota at Iowa.
Tennessee at Alabama (-8.5): O/U 48.5
Tennessee beat Alabama in a thriller, 52-49 last year in Knoxville, but this game is in Alabama and Nick Saban has revenge after winning 15 straight against the Vols before dropping the ball last season.
It’s also Joe Milton and not Hendon Hooker. While Milton and the Vols cashed for us last week, they did not look great and shouldn’t as the road team.
The Vols have played three straight home games, lasting playing away from Tennessee on 9/16. That was a 29-16 loss at Florida, which we were on the Gators +8 and the ML. This will be the Vols’ second true road game of the year and another fade spot.
In the last nine trips to Alabama, the Vols have scored 17 or fewer points in eight of those games. Milton will struggle against this Alabama defense similar to how Texas A&M just handled him for 100 passing yards and a 50% completion percentage (11/22).
Give me the Vols Team Total Under 19.5 at +102 odds down to 17.5. I lean toward Alabama to cover, but the defense will the forefront of why the Tide rolls.
Pick: Tennessee Team Total Under 19.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
Minnesota at Iowa (-3.5): O/U 31.5
Minnesota at Iowa is the lowest O/U total this season after last week’s closing line of 33.5 between Iowa and Wisconsin briefly set the mark.
The previous meeting between these two teams finished with a 13-10 result, so get ready for a low-scoring game once again.
Iowa owns the third-worst third-down percentage (26.3%), the second-worst passing efficiency (94.59), and ranks last in total offensive yards per game (247.4).
Minnesota is 119th in total offense (313.3 ypg), 77th in third-down offensive percentage (39%), and 124th in passing efficiency (107.79).
Neither offense is capable of moving the ball down the field via the pass and third-and-mediums to longs will be a struggle. Minnesota scored 13 or fewer points in three out of six games and Iowa scored 20 or less in four out of seven games.
Iowa was involved in two totals of 32.0 or lower last year and both hit the Under. Let’s run it back at Under 31.5 at -110 odds. I played the Under 32.5 and 32.0 as well. I’d go down to 31.0 before looking for a live betting opportunity.
Pick: Under 31.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
Air Force (-10.5) at Navy: O/U 34.5
I missed Service Academy unders and we have our first of the season! Dating back to 2012, the Under is 28-3-1 (90.3%) and is 12-1-1 (92.3%) since 2018.
The previous scores between Navy and Air Force over the last five years have been low-scoring outside of one contest (34-25). In the other four, the scores were 47 or lower in all four with multiple blowouts: 13-10, 23-3, 40-7, and 35-7.
Air Force ranks 1st with 334.8 rushing yards per game and 5th in rushing defense (77.0 ypg). The Falcons are 3rd overall in total defense (240.0 ypg), 14th in scoring defense (14.6 ppg), and 31st in red zone defense (75%).
Navy is not nearly as good on defense, and that’s why the spread is -11.5 in favor of Air Force. The Midshipmen are 79th in rushing defense (148.5 ypg), and 47th in scoring defense (23.0 ppg), but 12th in red zone defense (68.4%).
Both teams enter this game with the mindset to run on offense and stop the run on defense. Air Force is 1st in time of possession and Navy is 33rd, plus the Midshipmen are 5th in rushing offense with 235.7 ypg.
Expect long possessions with the clock running, punts, a few fourth-down attempts, and field goals. I played and posted the Under 39.5 at -115 odds on X @VmoneySports and would go down to 37.0 for 1.5 units.
Pick: Under 39.5 (1.5u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
Michigan (-24.5) at Michigan State: O/U 47.5
Michigan has yet to allow a team to score more than 10 points on them and MSU is next in line for that challenge as the books list the Spartans’ Team Total at 10.5.
Michigan State is coming off a 27-24 loss to Rutgers where the Spartans blew a 27-6 lead. Michigan molly-whopped Indiana, 52-7, and will look to have another strong showing on both ends.
Michigan State was held to 7 points at Michigan last year and scored 14 or fewer points in four of the previous six matchups.
The Spartans’ offense ranks 100th on third-downs this year (35.9%), 105th in passing efficiency (119.7), 109th in rushing offense (118.7 ypg), plus 125th in turnover margin (-6).
The Wolverines allow 6.7 ppg this season (1st) and own the top-rated red-zone defense (33.3%), plus the 16th-ranked third-down defense (31.5%). I don’t have much faith in the Spartans’ offense outside of wanting to win because of the rivalry.
I played Michigan State’s Team Total Under 10.5 at -120 odds. I would play Under 9.5 for +100 or better at 1 unit and look for live betting opportunities.
Indiana beat our Under 6.5 team total last week, but we live bet the Under 9.5 and 7.5 to make money back.
Pick: Michigan State Team Total Under 10.5 (1.5u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
Season Record: 40-21-1 +16.8u
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