Prior to the season, this game was circled on everyone’s calendars as a showdown between potentially the top two teams in the nation. Penn State was presumed to be the better of the two sides heading into the season with many wondering how good Ohio State would be considering how many players left to get paid on Sundays after last year’s national championship run. Well, as it turns out, Ohio State held up their end of the bargain. They are undefeated and ranked No. 1 in the nation...and favored by 20 points over a Penn State team playing for an interim head coach following an in-season meltdown by the program and subsequent dismissal of then Head Coach James Franklin.
This Big Ten rivalry has been anything but that of late with Ohio State taking the last eight in the series.
Lets dive into the schools and look at each on both sides of the ball, a handful of players to watch, and also some key numbers.
Game Details and How to watch No. 1 Ohio State vs. Penn State
- Date: Saturday, November 1st, 2025
- Time: 12:00PM Eastern
- Site: Ohio Stadium
- City: Columbus, OH
- TV/Streaming: FOX
Game Odds for Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Ohio State (-1800), Penn State (+1000)
- Spread: Ohio State -20.5 (-112)
- Total: 44.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Penn State Nittany Lions
Head Coach: Terry Smith (Interim HC)
2025 Record: 3-4
Offense Ranking: 24
Defense Ranking: 18
Strength of Schedule: 15
Penn State’s 2025 season has been a sharp regression from last year’s playoff run, sitting at 3–4 (0–4 Big Ten) despite somehow ranking 20th in SP+. The offense, led by new coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, ranks 24th in Offensive SP+ and maintains solid consistency metrics - a 47.3% success rate (28th) and 3.03 points per drive (22nd) - but ranks just 129th in explosiveness, lacking big-play punch. Defensively, DC Jim Knowles’ group remains Top 20 in SP+ (18th) and continues to stifle opposing passing attacks, allowing just 4.63 yards per play (17th) and a 39.2% success rate (44th). Despite the strong underlying metrics, Penn State’s -10.1 points per game margin versus projection and 0–4 record in conference play reflect a team plagued by close-game inefficiency and underachievement in high-leverage moments.
The Penn State Nittany Lions Offense
Penn State’s offense under Andy Kotelnicki has been efficient but methodical, ranking 24th in Offensive SP+ with a 47.3% success rate (28th nationally) while struggling to generate explosive plays, ranking just 132nd in yards per successful play. The ground game has been the backbone, producing a 50.2% rushing success rate (14th) and ranking 26th in EPA per rush, anchored by a Top 10 stuff rate (12.9%) and elite run blocking efficiency (1.6% pressure rate allowed, 12th). Through the air, the Nittany Lions average 6.2 yards per dropback (83rd) but sustain drives with a 45.9% passing success rate (38th) and balanced early down playcalling (59.4% standard-down run rate). However, their lack of vertical explosiveness with just 4.7% of plays gain 20+ yards (121st) has drastically limited scoring upside, forcing Penn State to rely on execution and field position rather than quick-strike ability. That only gets more difficult with multi-year starting QB Drew Allar injured and redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer under center.
Penn State Player to Watch on Offense: RB Kaytron Allen
Kaytron Allen has been Penn State’s most dependable offensive weapon, rushing 98 times for 612 yards and 9 touchdowns while posting an elite 57.1% success rate and 34.7% first-down conversion rate per carry. He combines consistency with burst, averaging 6.24 yards per rush and producing 16.3% of runs over 10+ yards, with a sturdy 4.05 yards after contact per carry and only 5.1% of attempts stopped for no gain. As a receiver, Allen has taken a backseat to his counterpart Nick Singleton, catching 10 of 15 targets (66.7%) for 33 yards and a 53.1% success rate, mainly on short routes out of the backfield (70% of receptions as a RB). His combination of vision, power, and low volatility makes him Penn State’s preferred between the tackles option.
The Penn State Nittany Lions Defense
Penn State’s defense ranks 18th in Defensive SP+ holding opponents to just 4.63 yards per play (17th nationally) with a respectable 39.2% success rate allowed (44th). The Nittany Lions have been up & down against the pass, limiting opponents to 5.3 yards per dropback (26th), but with an EPA per dropback of -0.01 (49th) while generating middling backfield disruption with a 34.2% pressure rate (43rd). Up front, the defensive line has driven a 7.9% havoc rate (17th), helping Penn State post a 12th-ranked success rate on passing downs (22.8%). The metrics fail to reflect the reality that Penn State’s defense has failed to generate stops in key situations and has not contained the better offenses they’ve faced.
Penn State Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Dani Dennis-Sutton
Dani Dennis-Sutton has been Penn State’s most disruptive edge defender, producing 28 tackles, 8 havoc plays, and 4.5 tackles for loss across seven games while maintaining a strong 87.5% tackle rate. His pass-rushing metrics are among the best on the team, generating 19 pressures on 152 rushes (12.5% pressure rate) and ranking near the top in time to first pressure (2.36 seconds). With 2.0 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 8 run stops, Dennis-Sutton consistently impacts both the pass and run games, blending power with closing burst off the edge.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Head Coach: Ryan Day
2025 Record: 7-0
Offense Ranking: 11
Defense Ranking: 1
Strength of Schedule: 41
Ohio State has dominated the 2025 season with a 7–0 record and the nation’s No. 2 overall SP+ ranking, powered by the top-ranked defense and an offense that ranks 11th in efficiency. The Buckeyes are holding opponents to just 3.81 yards per play (1st nationally) and a mere 0.57 points per drive (1st), while their offense has posted a 55.8% success rate (1st) and 9.1 yards per dropback (4th) behind elite quarterback play and protection (1.4% pressure rate allowed – No. 4 nationally). Ryan Day’s team excels in complementary football, ranking Top 10 in both points per drive scored (3.44) and field position differential, converting 52.7% of third downs (8th) while holding opponents to just a 21.1% conversion rate (1st). With a projected 11–12 win trajectory and a 93% CFP appearance probability, Ohio State remains one of the most balanced and efficient teams in the country, capable of winning in both grind-it-out and explosive game scripts.
The Ohio State Buckeyes Offense
Ohio State’s offense has been ruthlessly efficient, ranking No. 1 nationally in success rate (55.8%) and producing 6.91 yards per play (15th) despite operating at one of the slowest tempos in FBS (31.1 seconds per snap, 134th). Quarterback play has been elite — the Buckeyes lead the country in completion rate (79.5%), adjusted completion rate (83.1%), and rank 4th in yards per dropback (9.1) behind a line that allows pressure on just 1.4% of dropbacks (4th). Their passing game complements a solid ground attack averaging 4.7 yards per carry and converting 48.5% of rushes into successful plays, helping them maintain balance and sustain drives (81.3% down-set conversion rate, 7th). Efficient in all phases and deadly in the red zone (5.51 points per scoring opportunity, 2nd), Ohio State’s offense combines precision passing with disciplined execution to consistently overwhelm opposing defenses.
Ohio State Player to Watch on Offense: QB Julian Sayin
Julian Sayin has been remarkably efficient in his first seven starts, completing 80.0% of his passes for 1,872 yards, 19 touchdowns, and just 3 interceptions while posting a stellar 87.9 Total QBR. He ranks among the nation’s most accurate passers, averaging 12.0 yards per completion and a 60.7% success rate, demonstrating elite decision-making and rhythm within Ohio State’s offense. Sayin’s ability to stay poised under pressure is evident in his 1.5% sack rate and 6.4% sack-to-pressure ratio, both elite marks for a young quarterback. Though not a major rushing threat (2.06 YPC), his precision and efficiency as a distributor have made him the stabilizing force behind the Buckeyes’ top-ranked passing attack.
The Ohio State Buckeyes Defense
Ohio State’s defense has been the most dominant unit in college football, ranking No. 1 nationally in SP+ defense and allowing just 3.81 yards per play and 0.57 points per drive, both best in the country. The Buckeyes have paired elite efficiency with suffocating disruption, holding opponents to a 34.4% success rate (10th) while generating a 19.5% overall havoc rate (11th) and a 9.7% sack rate (5th). They’ve been nearly impenetrable in scoring situations, giving up touchdowns on only 16.7% of red-zone trips (1st) and just 28.6% in goal-to-go situations (1st). With lockdown coverage allowing only 4.0 yards per dropback (1st) and a 21.1% third-down conversion rate (1st), DC Matt Patricia’s defense has completely smothered opponents through disciplined tackling, relentless pressure, and airtight secondary play.
Ohio State Player to Watch on Defense: LB Arvell Reese
Arvell Reese has emerged as OSU’s defensive tone-setter, recording 44 tackles, 8.0 havoc plays, and an impressive 5.5 sacks through seven games. His 93.6% tackle rate highlights both reliability and efficiency when engaged, while his ability to penetrate the backfield has produced 6.0 tackles for loss and a 25.0% pressure rate on 52 pass-rush snaps. He generated four pressures on third down and forced constant backfield chaos with a 2.85-second average time to first pressure, showcasing advanced burst and timing. Reese is being mocked as an early first-round draft selection and potential All-American thanks to his standout play.
No. 1 Ohio State vs. Penn State team stats, betting trends
- Ohio State is on a 3-game winning streak at home against Penn State
- Ohio State is 3-0-1 ATS at home this season and 6-0-1 ATS overall this season
- 6 of Penn State’s last 8 road games have gone OVER the Total
- Penn State is 1-6 ATS this season
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Nick Singleton Under 40.5 Yards Rushing
As mentioned above, RB Kaytron Allen has wrested control of the PSU backfield with authority, logging a dominant 27 carries to Nick Singleton’s 6 last game vs. @Iowa. For his part, Nick Singleton has been relegated to primarily passing downs, a split that only got more pronounced following HC James Franklin’s departure. With Penn State’s depth chart in flux, and Singleton failing to clear his 40.5 Rushing Yards mark in each of his last four games, I’m taking Nick Singleton to go Under 40.5 Rush Yards against the vaunted OSU front.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between No. 1 Ohio State and Penn State
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Buckeyes of Ohio State at +20.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 43.5.
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