Big Movers
Kyle Monanghai, RB, Rutgers at Michigan had an arbitrage special going for a few hours, as he was listed at 48.5 rushing yards on Draft Kings, while at the same time FanDuel posted him at 32.5 Rushing Yards. Unfortunately that gap has closed to 42.5 and 38.5, but Monanghai was a sweet middle play for a while there. Here are several other notable line moves from the Week 4 CFB Player Props slate:
Kyle McCord, QB, Ohio State at Notre Dame - 265.5 Passing Yards | 287.5 Passing Yards
Chandler Morris, QB, TCU @ SMU - 258.5 Passing Yards | Opened at 232.5 Passing Yards
Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas @ Baylor - 264.5 Passing Yards | Opened at 282.5 Passing Yards
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina - 280.5 Passing Yards | Opened at 266.5 Passing Yards
Leshon Williams, RB, Iowa at Penn State - 61.5 Rushing Yards | Opened 78.5 Rushing Yards
Darius Taylor, RB, Minnesota at UNC - 98.5 Rushing Yards | Opened at 91.5 Rushing Yards
Max Klare, TE, Purdue vs. Wisconsin - 34.5 Receiving Yards | Opened at 26.5 Receiving Yards
Best Bets
Jaxson Dart, QB, Mississippi at Alabama - Under 46.5 Rushing Yards
Last week Dart torched Georgia Tech for 136 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries, which juiced this line to 46.5 Rushing yards. While he’s certainly a threat on the ground, Dart failed to clear 44 yards rushing in 12 of his last 17 games heading into last week’s ground explosion. When a player puts up an outlier performance, I usually like to come back on the other side with an Under the following week if the game situation calls for it, and with Ole Miss traveling to Tuscaloosa to play an Alabama defense with a chip on their shoulder. I think Bama’s defensive line manages to sack Dart 3-5 times, which will snuff out any chance at a rushing Over. Give me the Under 46.5 Rushing Yards on Dart.
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Jalil Farooq, WR, Oklahoma vs. Cincinnati - Over 42.5 Receiving Yards
I loved how things were lining up for Farooq in the preseason with Marvin Mims moving on and the all-purpose weapon Farooq pegged for his vacated WR1 role in OC Jeff Lebby’s potent offensive system. He only saw four targets in OU’s first two games against Arkansas State and SMU, catching two for 33 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. However last week he broke out by reeling in 6-of-6 targets for 126 yards, 21.0 YPC and a touchdown against @Tulsa, averaging a gaudy 5.25 yards per route. This week the Sooners have the pleasure of welcoming Cincinnati to the Big 12. Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel has been sensational through three games, throwing for 905 yards with a pristine 11-to-1 ratio and now play their first Big 12 game. I think this game is a mismatch with Oklahoma blowing the doors off of Cinci, give me Over on Farooq’s 42.5 Receiving Yards.
Jimmy Horn, WR, Colorado at Oregon - Under 75.5 Receiving Yards
At some point the Cinderella ride has to come back to reality, right? I think Oregon is going to be able to assert themselves offensively against a soft Colorado unit that is significantly behind their offensive counterparts developmentally, with the Buffs’ D ranking 102nd nationally. CU had a miniscule 11% post game win expectancy against their in-state rival CSU Rams and face their best opponent to date. In Week 1 Horn caught 11-of-13 passes thrown his way for 117 yards and a touchdown. However, Horn has failed to clear the 65 yard barrier in both of his last two games despite 15 receptions. As the slot receiver, Horn is only averaging a 4.2-yard average target depth which suppresses his ability to break big plays as is evidenced by Horn’s pedestrian 1.58 yards per route average. With those factors in mind, i’m taking the Under 75.5 Receiving Yards for Jimmy Horn.
Roman Hemby, RB, Maryland vs. Michigan State - Under 74.5 Rushing Yards
Two weeks ago versus Charlotte Hemby ripped the 49ers for 19 carries 158 yards and a touchdown, which is his second-highest career single-game rushing yardage total. However, that electric performance against a lower-rung C-USA program is not indicative of Hemby’s weekly usage dating back to last season. In fact besides Hemby’s combustible Week 2 showing, he has failed to clear the 74-yard mark in his last 7 contests. Maryland is a pass-heavy attack that values Hemby’s advanced receiving skills as much, if not more, than his ability to pound it between the tackles. With their opponent, Michigan State, fresh off getting destroyed by Michael Penix and Washington for 473 passing yards, i’m projecting QB Taulia Tagovailoa and company to throw early and often. I’m taking Hemby’s Under 74.5 Rushing Yards, and also tossing some cheddar on Hemby Over 17.5 Receiving Yards.