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The 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational champion roared ahead Thursday morning to the tune of 7-under 65. Rory McIlroy utilized a balanced approach in the first round, ranking inside the top-20 in each strokes-gained metric and leading the field in both Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and SG: Tee-to-Green.
Finishing no worse than a tie for 10th at Bay Hill Club and Lodge since 2017, the Northern Irishman was always going to be a threat this week. Looking to improve on his stellar record at Arnie’s Place, McIlroy’s par-5 play maybe something to keep an eye on as he played the quartet of holes in a 5-under fashion in Round 1.
When asked his what his mindset was arriving on property this week, the 32-year-old said, “Yeah, I think you turn up at any golf course where you’ve had success, and automatically you’re going to have some confidence coming in. I’ve shot some really nice scores here. I think the last couple of years I’ve opened up the tournament really well with scores similar to what I shot today. Yeah, I feel there’s a nice flow to this golf course where you can really build a score.”
McIlroy added, “You have par-5s, one every few holes, and you’ve got a couple of scorable par-4s. As long as you don’t do anything stupid and you keep it in play, you feel like you can sort of methodically build a score on this golf course. That’s what I tried to do today. I played the par-5s particularly well, and that was the bulk of the score. I’ve sort of said this all along. I don’t feel like you need to do anything -- like you can play within yourself here and still shoot a good score, I feel, if you’re just disciplined and pick off the birdies where you’re supposed to.”
The four-time major champion has leapfrogged world No. 1 Jon Rahm (E) as the tournament favorite at PointsBet Sportbook. Now listed at +225, McIlroy will look to hold off the likes of Billy Horschel who sits two adrift and Adam Scott, Sungjae Im, and Will Zalatoris who all stand at 4-under.
Our first round did not go as smoothly as McIlroy’s. Closer than it would appear to the naked eye, both Si Woo Kim (-3) and Patton Kizzire (-3) were unable to take advantage of their scoring opportunities on the par-5s while Taylor Pendrith (-1) simply made too many mistakes.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
+225: Rory McIlroy
+1000: Viktor Hovland
+1100: Billy Horschel
+1200: Sungjae Im
+1600: Jon Rahm, Will Zalatoris
+2000: Adam Scott
+2200: Scottie Scheffler, Tyrrell Hatton
+2800: Marc Leishman
+3300: Max Homa
+4000: Beau Hossler, Charles Howell III, Ian Poulter
+5000: Aaron Wise, Cameron Champ, J.J. Spaun, Lanto Griffin, Paul Casey, Si Woo Kim, Talor Gooch
+6000: Chris Kirk
+6600: Cameron Young, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Gary Woodland, Jason Kokrak, Patton Kizzire, Sam Burns
+8000: Dylan Frittelli, Russell Henley
+10000: Graeme McDowell, Hayden Buckley, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley, Lee Westwood, Nick Taylor, David Lipsky
Round 2 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet):
Billy Horschel +13000 to win THE PLAYERS Championship (0.25 units):
I will be away from the keyboard the next few days, so instead of analyzing a couple Round 2 matchups, I figured why not look ahead to next week. With odds readily available at PointsBet for the fifth major, Horschel is a player who is a touch too long according to my numbers.
Whether he goes onto win this week or not, the former Florida Gator – well I guess current, technically – is off to a torrid start to his 2022. Always known as a player who thrives on momentum, one only has to look back to this past summer when Horschel went from dead last to inside the top-10 at the TOUR Championship. Carrying this form across the pond the very next week, the 32-year-old took down the flagship event on the DP World Tour, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.
With three consecutive finishes of T-16 or better coming into the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Horschel’s ball-striking has seen steady improvement over the last month. With performances of +4.7 SG: Ball-Striking at TPC Scottsdale, +9.3 SG: Ball-Striking at PGA National, and +2.8 SG: Ball-Striking today at Bay Hill, it appears as if it is here to stay.
While he has yet to figure things out at The PLAYERS, he has yet to arrive in comparable form bar his debut in 2013. Already invested in the world No. 22 at this exact price for the U.S. Open at The Country Club, a golf course featuring wall-to-wall Bermuda such as TPC Sawgrass offers even more appeal.
Outrights YTD: +79.69 units, +372.18%
Total YTD: +61.20 units, +99.46%
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