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A bit of a whiff at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, we turn our attention to the Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course. With the field thinning by the minute, 126 players are set to take on the former venue of the PGA Grand Slam of Golf. A bit different than most weeks in the first-round leader department, weather will heavily impact our selections.
Forecasted winds of 25 mph are expected to peak in Bermuda around 7:00 a.m. Thursday morning making the scoring conditions a bit more difficult for the early goers. However, as the day progresses – as of now – the wind appears to die down a touch. While the difference between 20 and 30 mph gusts may not seem like much, for the sake of our first-round considerations, we will take it to heart. Although my main concern lies in the wind, there is a slight chance of rain Thursday afternoon, but we’ll cross that bridge if we have to.
With the late morning and afternoon waves of play being targeted, we will focus on those players that are trending nicely ahead of the Bermuda Championship. Searching for strong par-3 players that have a knack for hitting fairways combined with birdie-making and bogey-avoiding metrics will be the bones of our operation.
Our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook have Matthew Fitzpatrick as the first-round favorite at +2500. Coming off a victory at the Andalucia Masters at Valderrama Golf Club, it will be interesting to see how the Englishman plays this week. On paper, the 27-year-old is a perfect fit for Port Royal GC and one would think he keeps the momentum rolling in Bermuda.
Odds to Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
+2500: Matthew Fitzpatrick
+2800: Christiaan Bezuidenhout
+3000: Mito Pereira, Patrick Reed
+3300: Adam Hadwin, Danny Willett, Seamus Power
+4000: Chad Ramey, Garrick Higgo, Guido Migliozzi, Hayden Buckley, Matthias Schwab
+5000: David Lipsky, Denny McCarthy, Lucas Herbert, Patrick Rodgers, Russell Knox, Ryan Armour, Scott Stallings, Stephan Jaeger, Taylor Pendrith, Thomas Detry
To Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
Kurt Kitayama (+6000):
One of the latest tee times on Thursday, I have seen this number as long as +9000 at some places. Given he is a two-time winner on the European Tour, Kitayama has since secured his PGA Tour status via the Korn Ferry Tour Playoffs and is now set to appear in the Bermuda Championship for the first-time in his career.
Finishing in a tie for 45th at the Sanderson Farms Championship, the 28-year-old posted +5.7 Strokes Gained: Approach at the Country Club of Jackson. While the rest of his game did not follow suit over the course of the tournament, in the first-round alone, it did.
Posting +4.6 SG: Total via -0.3 SG: Off-the-Tee, +3.0 SG: Approach, +1.1 SG: Around-the-Green, and +0.8 SG: Putting, the Vegas resident carded an opening 6-under 66. He’ll need to play better on the par-5’s and avoid the costly mistakes, but I don’t mind chancing he’ll do just that in Round 1.
David Hearn (+8000):
Outside of Brian Gay, you’d be hard-pressed to find a player who has enjoyed more success at Port Royal GC than Hearn. Collecting back-to-back eighth-place finishes in his two trips to Bermuda, the Canadian was an obvious choice once the tee times were released. Set to begin play at 12:59 p.m. local time, the majority of Hearn’s round will likely be in the calmest (relative) of the conditions.
Possessing a scoring average of 67.75 at Port Royal GC, the 42-year-old arrives off a missed cut at the Fortinet Championship – nothing new for Hearn as the same can be said for 2019 and 2020. Plenty accurate off-the-tee and possessing a steady iron game, it’s reassuring to know if the wind is as difficult as predicted, his short-game is there to back him up.
Gaining strokes around-the-green in seven of his last eight starts, he now sets foot on Bermuda grass and greens he has conquered in the past. Clearly comfortable in the windiest of conditions, Hearn’s course history cannot be ignored.
Danny Lee (+8000):
I have been seeing plenty of people throwing out the Mayakoba comp on the world wide web and if that is indeed the case, Lee needs to considered. A podium finisher in 2014 and a runner-up in 2018, El Camaleon is hardly the only coastal course where the 31-year-old has found success. Throw in a runner-up at the Puerto Rico Open and Lee’s history makes him an intriguing option.
While coastal courses are the low-hanging fruit this week, I can’t help but look at a venue such as The Old White at The Greenbrier. So far off the radar some people may have forgotten about West Virginia’s finest, last year’s winner Todd and Hearn possess great history at both and could be an avenue to lead us to success.
Claiming victory there in 2015, Lee has yet to return to the winner’s circle, but has shown flashes of brilliance. Typically, a strong ball-striker, Lee is known to make the occasional appearance on the first-round leaderboard and has had some of his best single-round putting performances on Bermuda (the grass, not the island...yet).
Sean O’Hair (+8000):
A winner at Innisbrook, a runner-up at Bay Hill and Waialae Country Club, and more recently a top-5 finisher in the Bahamas via the Korn Ferry Tour, O’Hair has taken to difficult, windy courses on more than one occasion.
A strong driver of the golf ball, the 39-year-old has developed a great habit of keeping squares off the scorecard. Unfortunately, he has not been able to couple this with circles on the card, but when he does, he typically finds himself in contention – namely his T-11 at the John Deere Classic and T-14 at Corales.
However, maybe that isn’t the worst thing given the potential for high scores on Thursday. If the first-round leader finds himself in the mid-60’s, that could play right into the hands of O’Hair given his ability to play mistake-free golf.
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Chase Seiffert (+10000):
We won’t be putting all of our eggs in the afternoon basket as Seiffert is set to tee off at 8:52 a.m. local time. The former Florida State Seminole is well acclimated to Thursday’s potential conditions and should bode well for his chances at Port Royal GC. Making his third appearance in Bermuda, Seiffert opened the 2020 edition of this tournament with a 6-under 65 before missing the cut.
Finding fairways at a more efficient rate in 12 of his last 15 starts dating back to last season, Seiffert’s lack of driving distance should be no issue this week. Posting +3.7 SG: Approach in his only start this season at the Fortinet Championship, he now returns to his native Bermuda grass.
Finding lightning in a bottle during the middle part of last season, I am hoping a similar setting could bring a similar result. Going T-15, T-3, T-18 in a three tournament stretch at the Puerto Rico Open, Honda Classic, and Corales Championship, if he can find a semblance of that form with the putter on Thursday, then we could be in business.
Scott Gutschewski (+15000):
Our last selection is going to reside in the 45-year-old journeyman as he has confirmed via Instagram he is in fact in Bermuda - which appears to be half the battle this week. Playing on the PGA Tour for the first-time in a decade, Gutschewski has had a mundane return to the big stage up to this point with finishes of 51-MC.
While the results have yet to stack up for the Nebraska native, he has held his own in the first-round. Posting +2.2 SG: Tee-to-Green in Napa, Gutschewski carded an opening round of 3-under 69. Despite the lackluster performance at the Shriners Children’s Open – missing the cut by one – I like the way he is trending both long-term and short-term on Thursdays.
Fairly accurate off-the-tee on the Korn Ferry Tour, Gutschewski is well-rounded when it comes to which particular holes (par-3’s, par-4’s, par-5’s) he likes to attack. He has the tendency to make a big number every now and then which could spell trouble for us, but given this number, I am willing to chance he can avoid the disaster holes.
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