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Play begins tomorrow at Wentworth for the BMW PGA Championship, as the best players in the world gather in England to take part in the European Tour’s flagship event. A storied tournament with storied history, our aim is to identify a couple of head-to-head matchups that will be wrapped up once you’re sipping on your Friday morning coffee.
Outlined in our first-round leader article, Wentworth has never been a course that gives a significant edge to the longer hitters. Instead, a steady gameplan and somewhat boring golf is often rewarded in Surrey. Looking to previous winners, elite ball-striking has never been a prerequisite, yet instead a strong short-game presence.
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Tyrrell Hatton, just 10 months ago, ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 24th in SG: Approach, but thanks to his short-game efforts was able to win the tournament in a relatively stress-free manner over Victor Perez.
The year before, it was Danny Willett who claimed victory with eerily similar ball-striking figures. 14th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 11th in SG: Approach, the Englishman rode a hot putter to an unlikely win, getting the better of Jon Rahm by three-strokes.
Francesco Molinari held off a flurry of Sunday charges including a 7-under 65 from Lucas Bjerregaard. Finishing at 17-under, Molinari was steady tee-to-green – 19th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 14th in SG: Approach, and second in SG: Around-the-Green. Starting the final round in a tie for the lead with Rory McIlroy, the Italian stood two-shots clear by tournament’s end.
These players never seem to jump off the screen when it comes to their statistical profiles, yet all are proven winners. Hoping to take a page from their books, our head-to-head matchup selections may possess similar traits. The odds makers at PointsBet Sportsbook have done a terrific job of pricing numerous head-to-head options ahead of tomorrow’s BMW PGA Championship.
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Head-to-Head Matchups (Odds Via PointsBets):
Billy Horschel (-130) over Adam Scott
Horschel tends to be one of those players who thrives on momentum. Coming off a very solid week at East Lake, the former Florida Gator is only one of two players to make the trip over the Atlantic, with the other being tournament-favorite, Viktor Hovland. Perhaps knowing beforehand that his Ryder Cup aspirations have come up short, I still believe Horschel will have a nice showing at Wentworth.
As it was here in 2019 that he made his debut, a memorable one at that, finishing in a tie for fourth. Known for doing his best work when driving distance isn’t a must have, Wentworth suits Horschel’s somewhat volatile game. With his ball-striking in tune, and possessing such a putter he does, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him replicate his performance from just two years ago.
Then there’s Scott, whose game has seemingly flipped this calendar year. Becoming more and more reliant on the broom stick is never a prospect I enjoy when speaking about the former Masters champion. Making his first BMW PGA Championship start in more than a decade, the Australian arrives to Wentworth off a disappointing FedEx Cup postseason.
Yes, he narrowly missed out on a victory at the Wyndham Championship and his game appears to be there, but his performance at The Northern Trust is concerning. Having gained strokes on the green in seven straight starts, Scott regressed at Liberty National. That regression has a real chance to travel with him to England, making Horschel my option in this one.
Sam Horsfield (-115) over Thomas Pieters
I am all in on Horsfield this week as I believe the young Englishman is on the cusp of some of his very best golf. A strong performance at the Italian Open saw him finish tie for 15th, yet the ball-striking numbers were very promising as they typically are. 37th in SG: Off-the-Tee and second in SG: Approach at Marco Simone Golf & Country Club, I believe a similar performance is in the cards.
As outside of last October, when Horsfield missed the cut, he has had a decent go here at Wentworth. A T-15 finish in his debut was backed up with a T-31 outing in 2019. Posting par or better in six of those eight rounds, a clear comfort level has emerged for yet another former Florida Gator.
This is no slight against the big hitting Belgian as Pieters could very well have a nice week at Wentworth. Playing some great golf as of late, he has a bit of a mixed bag when it comes to this tournament. A few quality outings, a few missed cuts, he’s difficult to decipher at the moment, leaving me to side with Horsfield.
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