The PGA Tour heads to Dallas, Texas, for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson. With just a week until the PGA Championship, as expected, the field is weaker than in weeks past. Even with golf’s second major looming, Scottie Scheffler is in the field, and the University of Texas product is ready to put on a performance for the people of Texas. At +350, his odds are almost unbeatable. I can’t imagine spreading out my betting card and including a guy who is +350. He would likely be a single bullet and call it a day. Another issue I have with using Scheffler as my only betting option this week is the course is relatively easy. I like the best golfers at the most challenging courses, not at birdie fests—which leads me to bet four outrights and a few long shots.
The tournament this week is played for the third straight year at TPC Craig Ranch. K.H. Lee has the honor of being the back-to-back defending champion of this event. If he wins a third time, they might have to name the golf course after him. TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par 72 course that has proven to be a simple course for professionals. The fairways are wide, and the rough isn’t remotely penal, which allows the golfers to bomb away without any repercussions for wayward tee shots. The greens here are also massive, which turns this course into a putting contest. I want golfers who are strong off the tee, great on approach and can go low.
Key Metrics Correlated to Success:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Driving Distance
- SG: Putting
- Birdie or Better Gained
- SG: Par 4
- SG: Par 5
- Good Drives
Picks to win the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson
Tyrell Hatton +1334 0.75 units
There are courses throughout a season where I am excited to bet and use specific golfers in one-and-done format competitions. Tyrell Hatton was a golfer I was saving in my one-and-done league for this course. As expected, Hatton is the highest-ranked golfer in my model and is coming into this tournament in solid form. He finished top 20 in the RBC and was in contention at the Wells Fargo Championship before finishing T3.
He’s a golfer whose weaknesses will be masked here, and his strengths greatly heightened. Hatton is top five in SG: App, SG: Par 4, BoB Gained, and Good Drives. It will be interesting seeing how he adjusts to the course having it be his first trip here. However, without any quirks or gimmicks, it shouldn’t be too much of an issue for first-timers. Additionally, with only two renditions of this tournament at this course, plenty of golfers will be teeing it up with limited to no experience here.
Tom Kim +1808 0.75 units
All aboard the Tom Kim resurgence train. If I can even call it a resurgence after winning the Shriners in October. There was this sense that Kim would play, win, and not stop winning. Then the grind of a PGA Tour schedule took over. He missed the cut at the Sony Open and followed it up with just one top 20 in his next five tournaments. He then followed it up with a missed cut and a T23 at Wells Fargo. However, Kim’s backers should take some confidence from his last performance. He gained +2.9 strokes off-the-tee and another +4 on approach – two of my most important metrics for this week. With big greens that are relatively easy, Kim’s putting woes should be able to overcome. He finished T17 here last season and should be able to improve on that success in his second trip here.
Seamus Power +4500 0.35 units
When looking at the golfers I wanted to be on this week, Seamus Power was someone who excited me a lot, but I couldn’t get all the way home on him with a unit placement of 0.35 units. His tournament history is phenomenal, with a T17 last season and T9 the season before. Power also had one of the low rounds in round 1 last year.
As expected, Power gains the most strokes in windy conditions. With the expected weather this week, Power is a guy who could use his familiarity with damp and windy conditions to his advantage. Power isn’t one of the best golfers on approach, but on his day, he can not only heat seek pins with the best of them, but he can contend for titles.
Adam Scott +3300 0.35 units
On NBC Sports’ Bet the Edge, I was asked if I prefer Hatton or Adam Scott after their outstanding performances last week. It was hard to answer for me because they have two different skill sets, but Scott’s price was nearly double. I think Hatton’s form and exact skillset suit this course better, but when it comes to win equity, it’s hard for me to ignore a guy like Scott. It’s even more difficult to ignore him for a guy like Tom Hoge or Christian Bezuidenhout, all of which are priced similarly.
The former World No. 1 has not won a PGA Tour event since 2020, but it’s hard to imagine that Scott doesn’t have as good of a chance to win as anyone else in this field. It does worry me that it’s the week before a major, and he could be using it as a tune-up, but last week he showed too much promise not to bet on this week. Scott’s success will come from gaining strokes on the tee and with his putting. However, if he gains another +4.5 strokes on approach, he can be very live to win this week.
Longshots:
- Eric Cole +8000 0.1un
- Sam Stevens +8200 0.1un
- Dylan Wu +12876 0.1u
- Taylor Montgomery +5127 0.2un
