There are many unknowns heading into this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson. TPC Craig Ranch will be making its PGA Tour debut as players head to the Tom Weiskopf design just outside of Dallas, Texas. TPC Craig Ranch is not new to the professional golf world as it hosted the 2008 Nationwide Tour Championship and the 2012 Web.Com Tour Championship. If you’re confused, they’re the same event in what is currently the Korn Ferry Tour.
On paper, it appears to be the type of course where bombers could thrive. Measuring just north of 7,400 yards, this par-72 boasts wide landing areas off the tee. From there, players will hit into large greens surrounded by bunkers and run-off areas. To me, this screams birdie fest and it wouldn’t come as a shock if players take advantage of a potentially easier set-up, barring any windy conditions.
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With no course history to rely on, we are going in a bit blind. When weeks like this arise, I like to keep things simple and try to not overcomplicate the process. We’ll be looking to target those players who have plenty of firepower, are solid ball-strikers, and have the ability to knock in a putt or two. Short, sweet, to the point.
Weather always has the potential to wreak havoc on first-round leader selections, but even more so when we are discussing Texas. Having said that, there does not appear to be a discernible advantage between the morning wave and the afternoon wave as of now. Typically, winds are calmer in the morning hours and tend to freshen as the day progresses. Without any uptick of the wind in the forecast, we’ll lean with the morning wave, but not completely dismiss the afternoon players.
The oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have priced the first-round leader market. With Dustin Johnson withdrawing, Bryson DeChambeau leads the way by himself at +1800. The last winner in Texas, Jordan Spieth, follows closely at +2200 and Dallas-area resident, Will Zalatoris, is at +4000.
Odds to Lead After the First Round (via PointsBet):
+1800: Bryson DeChambeau
+2000: Jon Rahm
+2200: Jordan Spieth
+2800: Daniel Berger, Hideki Matusyama
+3300: Brooks Koepka, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler
+4000: Marc Leishman, Sergio Garcia, Si Woo Kim, Will Zalatoris
+5000: Cameron Champ, Charl Schwartzel, Keith Mitchell, Ryan Palmer, Sam Burns, Talor Gooch
To Lead After the First Round (Odds via PointsBet):
Sergio Garcia (+4000):
After what appeared to be a resurgence in form at the Players Championship, Garcia dropped off the face of the map quickly. A missed cut at The Masters was followed up with another missed cut at the RBC Heritage, two courses where he had experienced past success. With some time off since then, I believe Garcia will have figured out his ball-striking troubles and return to his normal-self in Dallas.
Last time Garcia missed consecutive cuts, he ended up winning the Sanderson Farms Championship in his next start. Obviously, it would be a stretch to assume he’ll turn that coincidence into a trend, but it goes to show how resilient the fiery Spaniard is. Normally, very reliable tee-to-green, what has me excited about Garcia is actually his putting.
First-rounds have been very kind to Garcia over the past couple of months. For the season, he ranks T-31 in Round 1 scoring average, coming in at exactly 70.00. That can be attributed to his cooperative putter on Thursdays. At the Players Championship, when he blitzed the field, he gained nearly four-strokes on the greens. He was positive on the greens as well at Harbour Town. He typically does his best work on bent grass, which we have this week, so if the putter gets going, he could have a chance to post a low one.
Charl Schwartzel (+5000):
From one Masters champion to another. This time we’ll be going with the South African who has flashed some form over his past few starts. After a playoff loss alongside Louis Oosthuizen at the Zurich Classic, Schwartzel has captured some momentum. He finished T-21 at the Valspar Championship and a respectable T-14 last week at the Wells Fargo Championship. Both of these quality finishes were on the shoulders of excellent tee-to-green numbers, specifically from his irons.
If Schwartzel carries his tee-to-green prowess to Dallas, his week and more importantly his first-round will come down to putting. It’s always scary hoping for a poor putter to turn in a solid round on the greens, but I believe Schwartzel is capable of doing so.
A switch from Bermuda grass over to bent grass should be a welcome sight for Schwartzel. Outside of Augusta, we haven’t really seen much of the South African on bent grass. The last notable time was all the way back in the summer of 2020 at the 3M Open when he finished in a tie for 3rd and gained four-strokes putting.
Keith Mitchell (+5000):
I am of the belief that TPC Craig Ranch should fit Mitchell’s game like a glove. Coming off a fantastic week at Quail Hollow, Mitchell’s driving prowess should set him up for success at TPC Craig Ranch. Throughout the week, players have been quoted saying how the course and wet conditions should fit longer hitters off-the-tee.
Enter Mitchell. The driving display that he has put on over the last month has been off the charts. Brandt Snedeker told Jim Nantz that if not for Snedeker’s poor play, Mitchell could have won the Zurich Classic by himself. The train continued to steam roll into Charlotte and I fully it expect to gain speed heading into Dallas.
Mitchell showed last Thursday at Quail Hollow that he is able to shake off a poor final round and refocus heading into a new week. The final round in Tampa was bad due to faulty putter. Last Sunday at the Wells Fargo may leave a feeling of disappointment, but I believe he’ll once again refocus and start fast at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Sebastian Munoz (+10000):
Truth be told, Munoz has been struggling as of late, but a return to Texas may be exactly what the doctor ordered. He finished inside the top-10 at the Valero Texas Open last month, thanks in part to a quick start in Round 1. He opened that tournament with a 4-under 68, and while it is always bold to select Munoz away from Bermuda greens, this week may warrant it.
Having gone to school at University of North Texas, less than 40 miles away from TPC Craig Ranch, there’s a high probability Munoz has some familiarity with this course. I am typically not one to buy into such narratives, but for a player who ranks 65th in Round 1 scoring average, I will.
Since TPC Craig Ranch boasts such wide fairways and large greens, backing a player who is a solid putter and a streaky ball-striker, may not be the worst strategy. Munoz may find himself on greens in regulation more often than usual. If that’s the case, he’s the type of player who can get hot, real fast with his putter and charge up the Round 1 leaderboard.
Sepp Straka (+10000):
The big Austrian has quietly been stringing together quality first-round performances. Last week at the Wells Fargo, Straka was climbing up the Thursday leaderboard before a few mistakes derailed him late in his round. Still, he was able to card a 2-under 69 and better his Round 1 scoring average of 70.05, good for 36th on the PGA Tour.
He’s been really strong off-the-tee as of late, which was a deciding factor in selecting Straka. As for his approach numbers, at first-glance they look poor, but I decided to dive deeper. I should preface, proximity numbers should always be used in conjunction with some sort of ball-striking number, as the statistic alone is extremely misleading in my opinion.
That being said, his long-term approach numbers are there and from 200+ yards specifically, Straka has been unbelievable. Over his last four measured events, he is averaging 12 feet closer than his competitors from long-range. With three of the par-3’s measuring over 200 yards and the par-5’s all being reachable, competence from that distance could be vital on Thursday. This sentiment holds even more weight if conditions remain wet, making approach shots that much longer.
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