The PGA Tour will showcase a new course this week for the AT&T Byron Nelson. TPC Craig Ranch will play host as players utilize their final week before the year’s second major at Kiawah Island. While some of us may be looking ahead to the PGA Championship, I can assure you that most of the players are not. With a new course at the helm, pre-tournament preparation is as important as ever, and due diligence is required.
A new course brings some uncertainty when trying to make pre-tournament selections and there are a number of narratives which you could potentially follow. Whether that is fading those who are coming off a long break like Brooks Koepka or Hideki Matsuyama. Or maybe you are buying into the Texas theme and looking at players such as Ryan Palmer and Scottie Scheffler.
I for one will be putting some stock into each of these narratives in conjunction with my thought process for the week. A par-72, TPC Craig Ranch measures to nearly 7,500 yards. Heavy rains have been present in the Dallas area, so there is a chance that yardage plays even longer. With this in mind, I’ll be targeting players that are long off-the-tee, precise with their irons, and competent on the greens.
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Head-to-Head Matchups (Odds via PointsBet Sportsbook):
Jordan Spieth (-130) over Hideki Matsuyama
Truth be told, I thought about only picking on Koepka this week, but Matsuyama made a late addition to the card. In his press conference on Tuesday, Matsuyama admitted that he didn’t practice much or even pick up a club during his victory tour in Japan. And rightfully so, Matsuyama was able to capture Japan’s first major championship in men’s golf and should celebrate accordingly. His eyes are set on Kiawah next week for the PGA Championship and he’ll be treating this tournament as more of a tune-up.
That being said, this makes Matsuyama an easy target at the Byron Nelson. I decided to go with Spieth just because his ball-striking has been amazing since the Waste Management Phoenix Open. It’s true, we haven’t seen him since The Masters as well, and he even admitted that he hasn’t played much since due to COVID-19, but, and I can’t believe I am saying this, he appears to be more consistent at the moment.
If not for a poor putting performance at Augusta, it would have been Spieth donning the green jacket. He now comes to his hometown tournament looking to peak for next week’s PGA Championship. Even if we don’t get peak Spieth for the Byron Nelson, I still believe he’ll be good enough in this one.
Will Zalatoris (-115) over Brooks Koepka
We’ll begin our fade of Koepka by discussing the why. The last time we saw Koepka, he was limping around Augusta National on a bum knee. While admirable in a sense, it was a risk that many saw as unnecessary. I will not say much on the matter of his knee injury, but I will say, that was the only time that we have seen Koepka play this spring.
He is clearly trying to get his game ready for next week’s PGA Championship and if there is one player in the field who is in fact looking ahead, it’s Koepka. The lack of play and looking ahead factor should be combined with the fact that he is admittingly better in his second week back to competition. If he flashes any form this week, I’ll look to PGA Championship futures before the odds drop, but I don’t have a ton of faith in that happening.
Zalatoris on the other hand is coming off his first missed cut in a long time. He arrives to his hometown of Dallas, Texas in good spirits and on the cusp of capturing his first PGA Tour victory. He has seen TPC Craig Ranch numerous times and I believe his ball-striking will be back to its normal-self this week. I can’t imagine that Zalatoris will miss consecutive cuts and that may be all we need if Koepka is indeed rusty.
Marc Leishman (+115) over Brooks Koepka
Since we have discussed the cons of Koepka for the AT&T Byron Nelson, we’ll stick to the pros of Leishman in this write-up. This will be his first start since winning the Zurich Classic alongside Cameron Smith. The big Australian has been striking the ball beautifully and should be able to free-wheel it around TPC Craig Ranch.
Before the Zurich Classic, Leishman was able to capture a top-5 finish at The Masters. He’s clearly in a good spot with his game and now comes to a tournament where he has experienced past success. I understand that it’s a different course this year, but this time on the calendar has been kind to Leishman. If his ball-striking cooperates, there’s a real chance he’s a factor not only this week, but also at next week’s PGA Championship.
If you fancy him like I do, it may be wise to grab a number on him right now. PointsBet currently has him listed at +6000 for Kiawah Island and I could see that dropping if he is able to turn in a strong performance in Dallas.
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