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Surprise, surprise, Rickie Fowler will take a two-stroke lead into the final round of THE CJ CUP @ SUMMIT. Well acknowledged and well publicized, Fowler’s struggles over the past two seasons may finally be drawing to a close. While there were brief moments of hope – capturing a top-10 finish at the PGA Championship and finishing T-11 at The Memorial – consistency was ever fleeting.
After missing the cut last week at the Shriners Children’s Open, it appeared this season may turn out like the last. However, Fowler took confidence from his second round at TPC Summerlin, battling back to shoot 5-under 66, the 32-year-old missed the weekend by one-stroke down the road.
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After carding rounds of 66-66, Fowler came into the weekend at The Summit Club a full six-strokes off the lead. With Keith Mitchell being the only player inside the top-50 to shoot over par on Saturday, Fowler and company took advantage.
Carding nine birdies against zero mistakes, Fowler once again utilized a balanced approach en route to a round of 63. Ranking first in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green – second in SG: Off-the-Tee, 15th in SG: Approach, and 12th in SG: Around-the-Green – Fowler has not needed to rely heavily on his flat stick to get to 21-under.
The same can’t be said for those who will attempt to chase him down tomorrow. Rory McIlroy leads the field in SG: Putting through 54-holes and is Fowler’s closest pursuer at 19-under. Playing his last 37-holes without a bogey, the Northern Irishman turned in the round of the day on Saturday.
Eight birdies and an eagle on the last secured McIlroy’s spot in the final group alongside Fowler and Abraham Ancer. Winning this past spring at Quail Hollow – another course influenced by golf architect Tom Fazio – parallels have inevitably been drawn. With Fowler snagging his first career title there in 2012 and Ancer finishing runner-up to McIlroy in May, it is a nice nugget to stash in the back of the brain for future tournaments.
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The oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have Fowler as the favorite to win his sixth PGA Tour title. Listed at +220, the inherent shootout nature of this tournament up to this point puts Fowler in a vulnerable position. Knowing there is a round of 10-under out there for the taking, Fowler will need to keep the pedal to the metal in the final round.
To tell you the truth, the top of the leaderboard feels a bit fragile. With massive attention on Fowler, there could be a relative letdown tomorrow. However, having a pre-tournament Tyrrell Hatton ticket in my pocket, I see no point in adding another to the portfolio. Instead, we’ll stick with another three-ball as we were able to get back on track with Hudson Swafford in the third round.
Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
+220: Rickie Fowler
+250: Rory McIlroy
+750: Abraham Ancer
+800: Adam Scott
+1400: Tyrrell Hatton
+1800: Robert Streb
+2800: Cameron Smith, Keith Mitchell
+5000: Ian Poulter
+6000: Sam Burns
+8000: Aaron Wise
+10000: Collin Morikawa, Erik van Rooyen
Round 4 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet):
Matt Jones (+233) over Brooks Koepka and Keegan Bradley
Another heavy underdog makes their way onto the card with Jones being our man for Sunday. Standing at 11-under alongside Koepka and Bradley, the 2021 Honda Classic winner has improved each day. Carding rounds of 70-69-66, he was finally able to put together a full day’s effort in the tee-to-green department in Round 3.
Posting positive results in each strokes gained metric, I am willing to chance the Australian can ride the momentum into one more solid round. As opposed to Koepka and Bradley who have been struggling quite a bit. With Koepka, you understand he will rely heavily on his off-the-tee play as it has been exquisite up to this point, ranking ninth in the field in SG: Off-the-Tee.
Yet the rest of his game is hardly holding its own. The same can be said for Bradley who is actually having a decent week on the greens. A bit of a surprise, if that club fails to cooperate on Sunday, he could be in for a rude awakening.
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