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Through the long shadows of the California setting sun, two men made the most of their “moving day” at the Farmers Insurance Open. Surprisingly not the duo to tee off last in the third round, but rather Will Zalatoris and Jason Day as the two stormed up the Friday leaderboard.
Kickstarting his day with a pitch-in eagle-2 on the par-4 second, Zalatoris’ tee-to-green game was exquisite from the go. Collecting another birdie on the par-4 fourth, the Wake Forest product caught fire around the turn as he converted three par-breakers in a row from Nos. 8 through 10.
Faced with a short-sided, downward sloping chip-shot on the par-3 11th, the reigning Rookie of the Year displayed a touch of class well beyond his years. Later describing his up-and down as “kind of a joke,” Zalatoris remained at 6-under for the day and appeared to be well off to the races.
However, as it has been known to do throughout his young career, the flat stick began to throw a fit comparable to that of a rebellious teenager. Missing a total of seven birdie opportunities from inside of 20-feet by the time the day was over, the 25-year-old’s bogey-free round of 7-under 65 felt almost disappointing.
He will certainly need that club to cooperate tomorrow as it has been a weapon for the man occupying the top spot alongside him. As Day posted +2.23 Strokes Gained: Putting on Friday, propelling him to a round of 5-under 67.
Finishing fast, the two-time Farmers Insurance Open winner birdied his final three holes to get to the 14-under number. Playing himself into a share of the lead, the former World No. 1’s history in this position may be something he will be able to lean on tomorrow.
Winless the last four years, this will mark the 15th time in which the 34-year-old will head into the final round with at least a share of the 54-hole lead. As our colleague, Josh Culp, pointed out on Twitter, Day is 6-for-7 in this situation dating back to the summer of 2015 and while impressive on paper, the most recent occurrence came at the 2018 Wells Fargo Championship.
For better or for worse, we will hope for some nervy moments from the final threesome as Aaron Rai will be joining the two leaders in the last tee-time of the day. Sungjae Im put together a solid bogey-free round of 4-under 68 to sit two-strokes off the lead.
In a nice position to play spoiler, Im’s approach numbers will likely turn some off, but they are not as poor as they seem. 27th in Greens in Regulation (compared to 54th in SG: Approach), if the South Korean can become a touch sharper with his scoring clubs tomorrow, he will give us a chance.
Because of this, we will ride with Im to capture his third career victory and second of the season. He will not only need to hurdle the leaders, but also Jon Rahm who sits at 13-under and remains the favorite to win at PointsBet Sportsbook. A tall mountain to climb, we will target a final round matchup in case the day goes south for our outright aspirations.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
+225: Jon Rahm
+400: Will Zalatoris
+450: Jason Day
+1000: Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im
+1100: Aaron Rai
+2000: Cameron Tringale
+2800: Dustin Johnson
+4000: Billy Horschel, Maverick McNealy, Ryan Palmer, Si Woo Kim
+6600: Cameron Young
+12500: Daniel Berger, Marc Leishman, Scottie Scheffler
+15000: Luke List, Taylor Pendrith
Round 4 Plays:
Joaquin Niemann +100 over Patrick Reed (1.00 unit) at DraftKings:
The fade of Reed finally paid off on Friday as Marc Leishman was able to get the better of him. Now up to bat is Niemann who looked all out-of-sorts for the front-nine of his third-round. Turning in 1-over 37, the Chilean battled back on the homeward half, carding three additional birdies against just one bogey.
Good for a round of 1-under 71, it felt as if the day could have easily gotten away from the 23-year-old. Instead, he stayed with it and actually gained two-strokes on the field with his back-nine performance. While the irons were suspect (53rd in SG: Approach), the putter was cooperative. Strong off-the-tee once again, this gives me enough confidence to go back to him in hopes of a rebound round on approach.
Reed certainly could be in line for a bounce back as well, but Niemann’s price is far too favorable to pass up in this instance. The defending champion ranked outside the top-50 in each strokes-gained metric on Friday with the exception of around-the-green where he ranked fifth. Without any indication of his ball-striking arriving to Torrey Pines, I will chance a similar statistical output in the final round.
2/3-Balls YTD: -2.90 units, -19.84%
Total YTD: +52.33 units, +193.70%
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