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A tale of two waves unfolded in Napa, California. With the morning rounds playing to an average of 1.42 strokes under par and the afternoon playing 0.71 strokes under par on Thursday, one would assume the late-early start would exact their revenge on Friday.
That they did as the scoring average gap widened as firm and fast North Course combined with a touch of breeze made for more difficult scoring in the afternoon hours. Playing more than 1.50 strokes easier in the morning, former Stanford standout, Maverick McNealy, made the most of the ideal scoring conditions in the early hours.
Beginning his round on the back-nine, McNealy got off to a dream start. After making birdies on his first two-holes of the day, McNealy turned in 5-under 31 to get to 9-under for the championship. Making his way to the front-nine, the 25-year-old made three consecutive bogeys to drop to 2-under for the day.
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Sputtering and appearing to let the round get away from him, McNealy recovered in a big way. Playing his final six-holes in 6-under, McNealy came home 3-under 33, despite the poor three-hole stretch, and carded an 8-under 64 on Friday.
Still looking for his first victory on the PGA Tour, McNealy’s best effort to this point in his career is a solo second at last year’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Narrowly inside the top-10 at the halfway point in that tournament, McNealy is well-positioned to improve on his best finish and make his way into the winner’s circle, something he was well accustomed to during his collegiate days.
Now down to +275 at PointsBet Sportsbook, McNealy is the favorite to win the Fortinet Championship with 36-holes to go. Close behind are a number of suitors such as Will Zalatoris at +600 and Mito Pereira +650, each looking for their first victory on the PGA Tour as well.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
+275: Maverick McNealy
+600: Will Zalatoris
+650: Mito Pereira
+1400: Harold Varner III
+1600: Troy Merritt
+1800: Beau Hossler
+2200: Bronson Burgoon, Hideki Matsuyama
+2500: Russell Knox
+2800: Matt Kuchar
+3300: Cameron Tringale
+4000: Si Woo Kim
+5500: David Lipsky, Tom Hoge
Round 3 Plays (Odds Via PointsBets):
John Augenstein (+130) over Scott Stallings
Starting the weekend in a tie for 10th at 7-under is this unassuming duo. Admittingly having a pre-tournament top-20 wager on Augenstein, I have been impressed with his play to this point. Ranking second in Strokes Gained: Approach through the first two days, the former Vanderbilt standout is seemingly getting more and more comfortable by the hole.
Coming into the week, my concern with Augenstein was his accuracy off-the-tee. While he hasn’t done anything to dispel those worries – hitting 12 of 28 fairways – he has still been able to score effectively. If the driver does cooperate a bit more on Saturday, the rest of his game is clearly there as he sits 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green and made strides with the flat stick in Round 2.
After opening with a round of 5-under, Stallings regressed in all facets of the game on Friday, a trend I see continuing into the third round. Ranking 93rd in SG: Tee-to-Green in the second round, the 36-year-old posted –0.53 SG: Approach and –0.16 SG: Around-the-Green.
Sitting 5th in SG: Putting, courtesy of posting north of four-strokes gained on the greens, if not for a clutch putter the first two rounds, Stallings would be out of contention. As a player who is typically reliant on his ball-striking and not so much his putter, this isn’t a situation I feel comfortable backing. Instead, we’ll chance Stallings coming down to earth on the greens, leaving the door open for Augenstein and his steady iron-play.
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