The PGA Tour season is back after a brief two-week hiatus. This week the Tour travels to Napa, California, for the Fortinet Championship. In this event, defending champion Max Homa is back in the field and has the honor of being the odds-on favorite. The Fortinet Championship is staged at the Silverado Golf and Resort North. The resort course isn’t too long and doesn’t have overly penal rough. While the shorter hitters can succeed here, we’ve seen from the past winners that this course favors ball-strikers with a bit of extra strength off the tee. With 156 golfers set to tee up on Thursday, I have eight guys that I love their prices in the placement market. You can also read my outright betting article here.
Callum Tarren Top-40 (+170)
Seeing Callum Tarren in the top five golfers on my primary model was a pleasant surprise. I can say I didn’t bet Tarren on time last season, but what I saw from him late last season impressed me enough to add him to the list of golfers I am looking out for in the 2023 season. He finished the season on a bit of a sour note by missing the cut at St. Jude, but anyone will probably miss the cut if they lose -7.1 strokes putting over two days. I’d be more concerned if poor putting were an attribute of his. However, he’s pretty solid with the flat stick. After his tough stretch of putting early in the season, he’s seemed to find his form.
Tarren is precisely what I want at a course like this; long off the tee, a guy who scores well on par 5s and is an excellent scrambler. At a course that has greens on the smaller side, it’s essential to be able to get up and down should you miss. This course can turn into a birdie fest, so it’s also nice having a guy who hits a ton of greens in regulation and gives himself a birdie look as often as possible. With five top-40 finishes in his last eight events, I’m drooling over the +170-price tag.
Andrew Putnam Top-40 (+120)
I’m over here asking myself when I missed the Andrew Putnam rise. It felt like after Byron Nelson; he started to find himself near the top of the leaderboard every tournament. Looking at the difference between the last few months of the season and the end, my only real correlation is his improved putting. After the Byron Nelson, he only lost strokes putting in two of the nine tournaments he played. He also ended the season, making it in the top-40 in his last four events.
The Pepperdine product is used to playing these resort courses out in California. His success in this event is evidence of that. In his last three trips here, he finished inside the top 40. He’s not long off the tee, but he does well by hitting greens in regulation and scrambling when he misses greens. Let’s see if he can make it four for four on top 40 finishes.
Tom Hoge Top-40 (+100) | Top-20 (+250)
As president of the Tom Hoge fan club, I’d like to note that what I’m about to say about Hoge is not slander, just the facts in front of me. Hoge is volatile. Sometimes it seems that it’s difficult for him to turn it up when he’s not off to a hot start. I equate some of that with the pressure that he’s faced after winning at Pebble Beach. However, anytime I get plus money for Hoge top 40 at a course that favors ball strikers, I’m not hesitating.
When I was looking at last season’s missed cuts, I was trying to see if I could find a correlation. He struggled a little in some tournaments where accuracy off the tee is important. Not enough to say he’s a fade at those events, especially if you look at the PGA Championship, where he lost -3.3 strokes off the tee but still finished T9. So basically, don’t try and guess when to bet Hoge. If you hear anyone say this course is a “ball striker’s paradise or the course favors ball strikers,” and you are getting plus money for the top 40, bet it. It has a higher implied probability than 50%, so there’s a value anytime we see it higher than +100.
If I’m confident in him at a course like this, I’m putting 0.5 units on him to finish top-20.
Taylor Pendrith Top-20 (+175)
The price I’m getting on Taylor Pendrith is almost too good to be true. He was my favorite outright bet this week and for a good reason. Pendrith is the top-ranked golfer in my primary model this week. He’s eighth in Strokes Gained: Total over the last 24 measured rounds; he’s second in SG: Ball Striking, 11th in both SG: Par 5 and Driving Distance.
Pendrith has yet to win on Tour, but it’s only a matter of time. He’s an excellent golfer who doesn’t have many flaws in his game. The only issue I take with his game is his putter. However, he hits the ball a ton and can flip his wedges close once he pipes it down the fairway. That’s exactly the recipe for success this week. I don’t mind that he’s only hitting fairways at a 57% clip, especially when he’s still gaining a ton of strokes off the tee. He’s finished top-20 in five of his last six events, his only slip up being St. Jude, which played tough and ate him alive on the greens. It almost makes too much sense for me to bet a guy top 20 if I think he can win unless he’s overly volatile, and Pendrith is not that.
Cam Davis Top-20 (+160)
Towards the end of the season, Cam Davis was a cash cow for me in the placement market. I bet him top 20 or top 40 in every event since John Deere and cashed him all but one. That happened at BMW, where he couldn’t seem to put anything together. He lost -1.9 strokes off the tee and another -1 on approach. A brutal scene for a guy who is always consistent and gaining strokes on approach.
Now that he’s had some time to get past the disappointing week at BMW, I’m more than happy to back him in the outright market and bet him to finish top-20. It’s been a couple of years since he’s played here, but I think that’s a good thing. He’s a better golfer today than he was in 2021.
Davis is ranked sixth in my model due to his excellent ball striking and success on par 5s. I love him this week; this could be the site of his second PGA Tour victory.
Justin Suh Top-40 (+110)
This one might be a reach or wishful thinking; however, I think Justin Suh will be a winner on the PGA Tour. He’s finished in the top 10 in his last four KFT events while winning the KFT championship to end the season. I love that he’s coming into this week with that momentum. Last year after the KFT Championship, the betting community was running to the window to bet on everyone who finished inside the top the week prior at the Fortinet Championship.
While I wish there were a direct correlation between performing well in the KFT Championship to doing well at the Fortinet, I haven’t been able to find one. However, I like Suh’s game here and love the momentum he’s bringing into the week. I also like that he’s had his shot at this course and tournament the year before. He didn’t play great, but without a few missed putts in the last round, he would’ve probably been in the top 40. I can’t say for sure, but it always helps to have course familiarity when teeing it off at any PGA Tour event. I’m putting 0.5 units on his top-40 finish and hope he breaks the KFT curse and plays well.
Thomas Detry Top-40 (+115)
Thomas Detry is probably my favorite DP World Tour golfer. I hoped he would put it together and win last week at the PGA BMW. He was close but no cigar. You better have Detry near the top of your list when you think of a bomb and gouge golfer. He’s excellent off the tee and hits the ball a mile. Typically, he slips up is missing fairways; he doesn’t miss them by a wide margin, so he should be solid here. He’s an excellent play to finish top 40 with success he’s shown overseas and at the resort courses on the PGA Tour. When Detry plays in a tournament with a resort course, he’s an auto top 40. Plus money for that works for me!
John Huh Top-40 (+175)
When thinking of this course, I wondered if John Huh would find his way to the top of my model. He’s positioned 12th. Being as high as 12 is surprising since he isn’t long off the tee. However, he still gains a bunch of strokes off the tee. He does everything well, maybe a bit better than much of the field. The last time we saw Huh was his brilliant T2 finish. An event where he gained +4.8 strokes on approach and another +4.9 strokes putting.
Backing Huh to finish top-40 does come with a bit of caution. Before his 57th finish at Rocket Mortgage, he missed three straight cuts. However, with seven top-40 finishes last season and a weaker field than many of the events he played last season. We will know early in the tournament if Huh has his A-game. Either way, I have him priced around +110, so at +175, it’s a must-play.
