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The Genesis Invitational is scheduled to get underway on Thursday as 120 players will take to Riviera Country Club. An invitational event, we are not only granted the luxury of a limited field, but also the world’s best driving up the prices of our typical range in the first-round leader market.
While the thought of backing solely Rory McIlroy 100% crossed my mind, I would rather look to a potential wire-to-wire play if we were to go down that road. Instead, we will target strong tee-to-green players, who may not necessarily be known as the best putters, but effectively avoid three-putts.
As Riviera has always been considered one of the best all-around tests the PGA Tour travels to each year. Boasting firm and fast conditions, bumpy Poa annua greens, and slew of long Par-4s, it will be vital for our selections to take advantage of their scoring opportunities when they come about.
Sam Burns was the man to rise to the occasion last year as the LSU product began his 2021 Genesis Invitational with a 7-under 64. By way of consistent iron play and a scorching hot putter, Burns was able to better the field by two-strokes. Listed at +4000 at PointsBet Sportsbook to repeat this performance, the 25-year-old has looked less than stellar to begin his 2022.
Burns was the first man off in the afternoon wave last season in what is essentially a pick your poison situation. Would you rather deal with cooler morning temperatures and conditions changing throughout your round or have to overcome the foot traffic on the greens and the potential for noticeable winds in the afternoon? Personally, I will be siding with the former – although it should be noted this did not pan out for us in Scottsdale.
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Odds to Lead After the First Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
+1800: Jon Rahm
+2500: Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay
+2800: Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy
+3000: Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele
+3300: Brooks Koepka, Cameron Smith, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland
+4000: Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Will Zalatoris
+5000: Adam Scott, Bubba Watson, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Max Homa, Talor Gooch, Tony Finau
To Lead After the First Round:
Maverick McNealy +8000 at BetRivers (0.25 units):
The California kid disappointed several gamers with his T-33 performance at Pebble Beach a couple of weeks ago, but luckily, I am without a sour taste in my mouth. While things did not work out on the Monterey Peninsula, perhaps they will in the Pacific Palisades.
Gaining strokes with his ball-striking in each measured round this year apart from Saturday at the Farmers Insurance Open, McNealy has quietly become one of the most consistent players on Tour. Missing only one cut in his last 17 starts dating back to last summer, the Stanford product can credit this stretch of golf to his steadiness from tee-to-green and timely putting.
Long off-the-tee and a native to Poa annua putting surfaces, there is plenty to like about McNealy in the first-round alone. Capable of navigating the difficult green complexes while also taking advantage of the three Par-5s, we will need to see a certain sharpness from his iron play. Despite being below average from 150 to 200 yards, it is interesting to note our NBC Sports EDGE+ Driver Tool has the 26-year-old inside the top-10 in this field in Par-4 Scoring from 450 to 500 yards over the last 24 rounds.
Keegan Bradley +10000 at PointsBet (0.20 units):
It is hard to believe we are now a full decade removed from Phil Mickelson telling Bradley to “join me” after making a birdie on the 72nd-hole of the Genesis Invitational to force a playoff with Bill Haas. A phrase with a very different meaning just 10 years later, what has not changed is Bradley’s remarkable ability from tee-to-green.
Posting positive Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green figures in 10-of-11 measured rounds in 2022, the former PGA Champion appears to be back to his normal-self after a pedestrian end to his summer. With single round iron performances of +3.0, +3.0, and +4.5 SG: Approach already this year, if there was ever a time for his putting woes to disappear it is this week at Riviera.
Disappear or rub off on others as the number of missed short putts on these complexes has been well documented. Bradley has been especially brutal on the greens in recent memory and even posted -5.1 SG: Putting in Round 1 in 2020. Despite this run of horrid – honestly, downright offensive may be a better way to phrase it – putting, he has mixed in days of +0.7, +1.3, +1.7, and +2.7 SG: Putting in his last 14 rounds at Hogan’s Alley.
Aaron Wise +13000 at DraftKings (0.15 units):
The darling of the swing season has broken many hearts to begin 2022 as Wise has posted -9.3 SG: Tee-to-Green in his three measured rounds. Boasting three missed cuts at the Genesis Invitational, survey says, this will be another week without pay for the former NCAA Champion. However, if the Quail Hollow comparisons ring true, I reckon this is the spot for Wise to return to his fall form.
With crossover winners in Homa and James Hahn, the venue just outside of Charlotte, North Carolina has been the site of some of Wise’s finest work. So, when taking a step back, it is conceivable the 25-year-old currently reliant on his broom stick will sweep this poor stretch of golf under the rug.
Possessing a fantastic short game, it is encouraging to see one of the bright spots in Wise’s play this year is that on Par-4s from 450 to 500 yards. Needing his ball-striking to return to its early season state, I am willing to chance it will in Round 1 at this price.
J.J. Spaun +14000 at DraftKings (0.14 units):
Spaun holds the distinct honors of being one of our successful in-play wagers thus far this season. Few and far between, the California native came to life Saturday at Pebble Beach, firing a bogey-free round of 8-under 64. Eventually finishing in a tie for 16th, this outcome was the latest in what has been a successful west coast swing with prior results of T-34 at the Farmers Insurance Open and T-25 at The American Express.
Great on and around-the-green, the recent surge in his iron play – particularly from 150 to 175 yards – is a welcomed sight. With positive SG: Tee-to-Green numbers in 6-of-7 rounds this year, the ultimate tipping point will be the 31-year-old’s Par-5 scoring. Up-and-down to begin 2022, if it is up to the challenge on Thursday, Spaun’s name should be up on top of the first-round leaderboard.
Scott Stallings +16000 at DraftKings (0.13 units):
Unable to come through for us at the Farmers Insurance Open, I am still of the belief Stallings is on the cusp of a truly memorable round. As outside of his opening round at The American Express, the 36-year-old’s putting has been extremely impressive.
Long off-the-tee, strong with his irons, and more than comfortable on Poa annua, Stallings runs into trouble when he arrives to Par-5s. For one reason or another, he has yet to take advantage of those scoring opportunities this year, but what he has done is play the Par-4s of Riviera immensely well in the past, giving me enough confidence to look in his direction once again.
First-Round Leaders YTD: -5.80 units, -100.00%
Total YTD: +41.13 units, +85.49%
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