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It was an auspicious start for overnight leader Joaquin Niemann (-19) as he saw his lead shrink to one-stroke after just three holes. With Cameron Young (-16), Viktor Hovland (-13), Justin Thomas (-12), and Adam Scott (-9) applying the early pressure, it felt as if the record setting 36-hole performance would be for nothing.
Yet as he has done all week, the young Chilean held steady. Converting birdie opportunities on three of the last five holes on his front-nine, Niemann grew his lead to three as the final trio made their way to the inward half.
Making an unlikely eagle from just off the green on the drivable par-4 10th, the world No. 32 began to rhythmically bounce his head to chants of, “Nie-mann, Nie-mann, Nie-mann” as he had reached 21-under for the tournament.
Yet that would be the lowest the 23-year-old would get as his final eight holes proved to be a struggle – as they did for most everyone. Playing this next stretch of golf in 2-over and failing to take advantage of either Par-5, Niemann came home in even-par for a round of 3-under 68.
While Niemann’s troubles persisted, namely a right miss off-the-tee, his lead of three remained. Playing himself into contention numerous times last season – two of which resulted in a playoff loss – Niemann will attempt to capture his first victory since his first at the 2019 Military Tribute at The Greenbriar.
He touched on this in his post-round interview, saying, “Yeah, Rocket Mortgage, I played great golf there. Obviously, I didn’t make any bogeys that week. Yeah, I mean, I think sometimes things go your way, things don’t go your way. There I think I put myself in big chances to win the tournament and it just didn’t happen. Yeah, just got to learn from that and go with a better attitude for the next time that you’re there.”
Appearing to be a three, possibly four-man race tomorrow, we will continue to ride with Niemann. While it is reassuring to see Marc Leishman (-10) and Rory McIlroy (-7) fighting for 2nd flight honors, our pre-tournament selections have been able to do what our in-plays have not.
Simply put, we have fallen out of the boat and cannot hit water. Drawing dead in the matchup department so far this year, we will revert back to the K.I.S.S. methodology. Ironically made famous by the United States Navy, this will be the angle in which we climb out of the hole we have dug ourselves.
As for a scheduling note – and lucky for all us – I will be away from the live odds board the next two weekends. We will have round recaps and in-play wagers on the site as usual, so fret not, we will still have you covered and likely in a more effective manner.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet Sportsbook):
-250: Joaquin Niemann
+450: Cameron Young
+900: Viktor Hovland
+1800: Justin Thomas
+3300: Collin Morikawa
+10000: Marc Leishman, Scottie Scheffler
+15000: Max Homa
+20000: K.H. Lee, Maverick McNealy
+25000: Adam Scott
+30000: Mackenzie Hughes
+50000: Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele
Round 4 Play (Odds Via PointsBet):
Sebastian Munoz (+250) over Rory McIlroy and Robert MacIntyre (1.00 unit):
Picking on the Scot did not fare well for us in Round 3, but I believe Munoz should be able to right Si Woo Kim’s wrong. Despite facing difficulties, outside of his off-the-tee play on Saturday, the Colombian was still able to put together a round of 2-under 69.
Trailing only Niemann in SG: Tee-to-Green through the first three days, Munoz ranks first in SG: Off-the-Tee and eighth in SG: Approach. With his short-game coming around ever so slightly since Round 1, I am willing to chance the entirety of the 29-year-old’s game comes to fruition in the final round.
Perhaps not giving enough respect to McIlroy, the way in which the four-time major champion has struck his irons this week has been uninspiring. While there was an uptick in proximity and overall sharpness in Round 3, I will need to see a sustained effort. With some glaring question marks surrounding the favorite and the largest price possessing the steadiest game through 54-holes, I will happily side with the heavy underdog.
2/3-Balls YTD: -8.75 units, -28.81%
Total YTD: +35.76 units, +66.86%
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