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Wave goodbye to the California swing as the boys head east to begin a month-long stint in the Sunshine State. Gone are classical venues, strong fields, and income taxes as the Honda Classic has once again received the short end of the scheduling stick.
Sandwiched between two elevated events in the Genesis Invitational and the Arnold Palmer Invitational, as well as The PLAYERS Championship in two weeks, this is typically a time premier players take off. Looking to peak not only for the year’s fifth major, but also the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play and of course The Masters, we are left trying to find ways to get creative from a betting perspective.
Which is something the tournament organizers at the Honda Classic have done as well. Taking a page out of the WM Phoenix Open book, the final hole of the infamous Bear Trap, the Par-3 17th, will feature a double-deck of stadium seating.
For those with a short memory, this is the hole on which the tournament favorite at PointsBet Sportsbook and 2020 Champion Sungjae Im (+1200) all but secured his maiden victory on the PGA Tour. While he may have fond memories of the Par-3, many do not as water hazards are extremely prevalent on the final stretch at PGA National.
In fact, while the field may lack a certain je ne sais quoi, the course does set up for an exciting finish. Between the Bear Trap, which features two difficult Par-3s and a demanding Par-4, and a closing Par-5 which was the demise of Tommy Fleetwood (+1800) in 2020 there is high likelihood to see leaderboard movement late into this tournament.
So, while Florida natives Daniel Berger (+1600), Brooks Koepka (+2000), and Billy Horschel (+2200) may headline the odds board, they are easy to pass on. With questions surrounding Berger’s health, Koepka’s motivation, and just Horschel in general, this is a week I will be targeting some longer prices.
With names such as Matt Jones (+4000), Im, Keith Mitchell (+3300), Justin Thomas, Adam Scott, and Padraig Harrington (+12500) making up the list of past champions, Horschel’s strength of putting appears to be neutralized. In fact, outside of Rickie Fowler (+6600) in 2017, no winner since 2015 has finished the week inside the top-20 in Strokes Gained: Putting with the median rank being 38th.
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Because of this, it only makes sense to begin with a player who has disappointed from tee-to-green in the early parts of 2022. That would be Aaron Wise (+6600) who some may remember as the 36-hole leader a year ago. Taking a three-stroke lead into the weekend after back-to-back rounds of 6-under 64, the former NCAA Champion wilted during the second half of the tournament.
Giving nearly all of it back, Wise played his final 36-holes in 8-over to finish in a tie for 13th. Featuring a poor day on the greens and a miserable day with his irons, what is not lost on me are his numbers in the fall. Not only that of tee-to-green, which saw him average +1.47 strokes gained per round, but more so his price as this was a player featured near the top of the odds boards some weeks.
Now more than doubled, in a field of this caliber, this certainly piques my interest. One who has played some of his best golf on Tom Fazio and Jack Nicklaus designs, PGA National is right in his wheelhouse. Capturing finishes of T-9 at both Quail Hollow and Muirfield Village last season, there is substance to this theory.
A tremendous Par-3 player and a much-improved putter thanks to his trusty broomstick, it is time for Wise to return to the winner’s circle. While form has eluded him in 2022, he may have discovered some last week at Riviera Country Club. Posting +0.08 SG: Off-the-Tee and +2.75 SG: Approach, it marked his best effort of the year and has the potential to translate to another strong showing at the Honda Classic.
We won’t get to the tee-to-green specialists quite yet although Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+5000), Mito Pereira (+5000), Russell Knox (+5000), and Taylor Moore (+5000) were difficult to look past. Accustomed to seeing their names with triple-digits next to them, the lack of quality in this field will not tempt me into buying them at their peak.
Instead, sticking with the theme of players who enjoyed a nice fall and stumbled out of the 2022 gates, Mackenzie Hughes (+6600) is someone I can envision winning this event. In fact, it was he who accompanied Im in the final round of the 2020 edition as the Canadian eventually finished solo second and one-stroke behind the South Korean.
Catching up with the Olympian this past summer, I asked how he was able to compete with some of the longer hitters to which he said, “I have to be really efficient and tidy [around the greens] giving up length to some of the guys at the top, but I can manage my way around a golf course.”
While the ability to get up-and-down is often underappreciated, this is a week where it can propel a player to the first page of the leaderboard. Apart from last year, the winner of the Honda Classic has finished inside the top-11 in Scrambling since 2015. Perfectly suited for Hughes, he arrives with middling results, going MC-16-MC in California.
With the best of those coming at Pebble Beach, the 7,100 yards of PGA National should hold some similarities. Never one to wow you with his ball-striking metrics, he proved with his runner-up performance at the RSM Classic that if his irons cooperate, he can contend on shorter, Bermuda-laced golf courses.
With numerous tee-to-green masters previously coming through, this week could play right into the hands of those who struggle with the putter. The polar opposite of Hughes, this brings Gary Woodland (+6000), Lee Westwood (+6000), Chris Kirk (+6600), and Lucas Glover (+6600) to mind. Yet of those listed in this range, it is Ryan Palmer (+7000) who I am drawn to. Barring his victory alongside Jon Rahm at the 2019 Zurich Classic, the Texan has remained without a trophy since his last trip to the winner’s circle at the 2010 Sony Open.
The time of year during which he historically heats up, Palmer was once again terrific on the west coast. Posting +6.60 SG: Tee-to-Green at the Sony Open, +6.93 SG: Tee-to-Green in three rounds on Torrey Pines South, and +2.31 SG: Tee-to-Green in one round at Pebble Beach, the 45-year-old collected finishes of T-12, T-16, and MC before struggling mightily last week at Riviera.
Willing to forgive his play at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Genesis Invitational as they are tournaments in which he normally struggles, Palmer now returns to his much-preferred Bermuda grass. Not only will he step foot on Bermuda, but also on a course reworked by Nicklaus.
A runner-up in this event in 2014 and a top-5 finisher in 2019, Palmer has continued to play some of his best golf on Nicklaus designs. Finishing second to Rahm in the 2020 Memorial at Muirfield Village and in a tie for fourth-place behind only Patrick Cantlay, Thomas, and Rahm at the 2021 ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP at Sherwood Country Club, a clear comfort level has emerged on the Golden Bear’s properties.
Not often will you consider a somewhat in-form past champion a longshot, but Michael Thompson (+14000) is just that. Unfortunately, not the only one to recognize the misprice, I would still play the 2013 winner down to +10000 which is still available.
Succumbed to putting woes in California and Arizona, the two-time winner on the PGA Tour may be seen as limping into the Honda Classic. Posting -0.32, -1.89, -2.69, and -3.34 SG: Putting in his last four starts, a return to SEC Country is a welcomed sight for the Alabama product.
With performances of +7.20 and +6.51 SG: Tee-to-Green at the Sony Open and the Farmers Insurance Open, Thompson has shown enough in 2022 to garner consideration. Especially when looking at our NBC Sports EDGE+ Driver Tool which puts the 36-year-old at the very top of this field in Scrambling over his last 24 rounds.
Fairly accurate off-the-tee and streaky with his irons, Thompson has collected three top-25 finishes in his last four appearances in the Honda Classic. Proven to be capable on these greens, I am willing to chance the flat stick troubles were left off the cross-country flight to Florida.
Thompson makes for one of many in the triple-digits as our selections take on a completely different look compared to last week. Buying up for quality at Riviera, we are now bargain hunting at the local thrift store. Nothing wrong with thrifting as acclaimed golf superstar Macklemore would tell you, a man with the nickname “Homeless Hubbs” came to mind.
For those unfamiliar, that would be Mark Hubbard (+15000) as there appears to be some slight disagreement in the market. Missing his first two cuts of the year after a strong swing season, the 32-year-old found his footing at Pebble Beach where he finished in a tie for 33rd.
Gaining strokes from tee-to-green in 5-of-6 measured starts this season (presumably 6-of-7), the Denver native has yet to have a memorable week with the putter in hand. Gaining north of a stroke on these greens in 3-of-4 outings, perhaps this will finally be the time for Hubbard to break through for his first victory on Tour.
I was a bit surprised to see Hubbard’s name appear with regularity when looking at our NBC Sports EDGE+ Driver Tool – not to sound too redundant. 14th in SG: Approach, 14th in SG: Around-the-Green, second in Par-3 Scoring, third in Scrambling, and 24th in Proximity from 175 to 200 yards over the last 24 rounds, I will happily buy in.
Mark may be the lesser well-known of the Hubbard’s as his brother Nathan hosts the popular golf podcast, “Fairway Rolling.” A great follow if you are looking for an inside look into life-adjacent on the PGA Tour, another player to make waves on a podcast recently is Kramer Hickok (+18000).
Spilling the beans on the Saudi Golf League, the former Longhorn gave listeners information regarding the potential, rival Tour. Lost in dollar figures, speculation, and poor lighting was Hickok mentioning PGA National as one of his favorite courses on the PGA Tour.
Reminiscent of golf in Texas, Hickok has collected finishes of T-30 and T-21 in his two appearances in Palm Beach Gardens. With some success here, it is not surprising to see the 29-year-old rank inside the top-20 in Par 4 Scoring from 400 to 450 yards and inside the top-10 in Proximity from 150 to 175 yards over the last 24 rounds.
While the recent results are uninspiring, he did enter the weekend in Scottsdale at 5-under before playing his final 36-holes in 3-over. Having put together a strong showing at Waialae Country Club, I look to play similar to that at the Sony Open coming to light this week.
I could not resist adding one last selection near the very bottom of the odds board. Featuring former world No. 1 Luke Donald (+25000), major champion Jimmy Walker (+30000), and FedEx Cup winner Bill Haas (+35000), perhaps the fountain of youth which was so often visited in the 2020-21 season will appear on this week’s map.
Not holding my breath, Jason Dufner (+32000) fits the mold of tee-to-green gamer who simply cannot putt. A perfect 12-for-12 on weekend appearances at PGA National since its tournament debut in 2007, if there was ever a time for the 44-year-old to return to relevance it is this week.
While one of those results was technically a MDF, we are not in the business of splitting hairs. Collecting three top-20 finishes and a top-30 in his last seven showings in the Honda Classic, he arrives this season with no form to speak of. To be expected as he is listed at +32000 for a reason, we are essentially banking on a return to his late summer state. Posting greater than +3.00 SG: Putting in 6-of-12 starts at PGA National, the five-time winner on the PGA Tour is worth the minimal risk.
Outright Selections:
Aaron Wise +6600 at BetRivers (0.50 units)
Mackenzie Hughes +6600 at BetRivers (0.50 units)
Ryan Palmer +7000 at BetRivers (0.47 units)
Michael Thompson +14000 at DraftKings (0.24 units)
Mark Hubbard +15000 at Caesars (0.22 units)
Kramer Hickok +18000 at DraftKings (0.18 units)
Jason Dufner +32000 at FanDuel (0.10 units)
Outrights YTD: +81.90 units, +426.62%
Total YTD: +65.48 units, +114.39%
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