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History will be made this summer as the United States Golf Association returns to The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts for the first time since 2013. It was there where a young, undersized Englishman won the U.S. Amateur with the help of his little brother. The name of the eventual champion? Matthew Fitzpatrick (+4500) of course who is now 27-years-old and still in search of his first professional victory on U.S. soil all these years later.
Fitzpatrick was hardly the only current player to participate in that championship nearly a decade ago. Bryson DeChambeau (+1600), Xander Schauffele (+1800), Scottie Scheffler (+3500), and Corey Conners (+6000) all made their way deep into the match-play portion of the championship as well. The Canadian fell short to Fitzpatrick in the semifinals and would do one better the following year at Atlantic Athletic Club, losing in the championship match to Gunn Yang.
Justin Thomas (+1800), Will Zalatoris (+4000), Max Homa (+10000), and Talor Gooch (not listed) were also involved, but were unable to play themselves into the top 64 after two rounds of stroke-play. Despite listing some of the bigger names who were present at the U.S. Amateur, there is not a whole lot we can take from it.
I was flunking out of AP Physics in 2013 so it is only fair we do not judge these then amateurs on their abilities from nine years ago. A lot has changed since then just as a lot will change between now and June. So, when looking into the future and potential U.S. Open contenders, one would be inclined to look at the profiles of past champions.
Current-favorite at PointsBet Sportsbook Jon Rahm (+1000), DeChambeau, Gary Woodland (+8000), Brooks Koepka (+1400), and Dustin Johnson (+1400) are the five most recent champions with Koepka winning back-to-back titles in 2017 and 2018. They all have similar statistical profiles, but The Country Club may open the door for a different type of player such as a Webb Simpson (+4000) or Justin Rose (+5000) type.
At its longest, The Country Club will stretch to 7,263 yards and play to a par 70. Torrey Pines measured 7,676 yards, Winged Foot 7,477 yards, Shinnecock Hills 7,440 yards, and Erin Hills 7,839 yards. This has the potential to bring some of the field – those who would not necessarily define themselves as power players – back into the conversation before the week even begins.
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If this proves to be the case, Billy Horschel (+13000) is a name I have circled as a potential first-time major winner in 2022. His best effort to date came in the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion – one of the shorter venues in championship history – where he co-led alongside Phil Mickelson (+8000) at the halfway mark and eventually finished in a tie for fourth. Outside of that, the major results have been rather pedestrian, yet I am reminded of his press conference after winning the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play this past March.
The former Florida Gator said, “I’ve always felt I had the talent to compete with the best players day-in and day-out. I think the difference between me and maybe a Dustin Johnson or Rory McIlroy (+1400) or Justin Thomas is just the consistency day-in and day-out.”
The 35-year-old added, “My goals are lofty. If I could get to double digit wins and those be four majors and The Players... I’ve always felt like I want to be one of those guys who have won a Grand Slam. I think I only have one top-5 in a major, so obviously I sound ridiculous saying this, but I think I have that talent, I know I have that talent, I just haven’t played well enough and done what I needed to do.”
Let me be clear, I am not running to the counter to bet on Horschel to win the Grand Slam by the time his career is over – there have been only five men to ever accomplish this – but it speaks to where he is mentally. Delusional or not, belief is half the battle.
Collecting two quality victories in 2021, the next step in Horschel’s progression is factoring more regularly in major championships. This year’s U.S. Open is where I see the greatest potential for this development to materialize.
While 2013 remains his lone top-5 finish in a major championship, a closer investigation may paint a clearer picture. At Oakmont in 2016, Horschel entered the final round in a tie for 12th at 2-over only five-strokes behind eventual champion, Johnson. He carded a 6-over 76 to drop out of contention and plummeted 20 spots on the leaderboard.
At Winged Foot in 2020, while never in a threatening position to the leaders, Horschel stood at 4-over through 54-holes. That same score would have been good enough for a top-5 finish, but instead Horschel rounded out his U.S. Open with a 10-over 80 and finished in a tie for 38th.
A player who has always thrived on momentum (p = mv), the schedule leading into the U.S. Open could be one in which the world No. 23 gets his gears turning. Horschel has historically struck the ball well at both Colonial Country Club and Muirfield Village Golf Club and if able to once again, I reckon he will be ready to roll once he arrives to The Country Club for the year’s third major.
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