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Memorial: Hovland is playing too well to ignore

Viktor Hovland

Viktor Hovland

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The PGA Tour heads to Jack’s place at Muirfield Village for the Memorial Tournament. Just two weeks removed from the PGA Championship, we are treated to another designated event. That means more money on the line and a strong field to boot. This week, all eyes will be on Jon Rahm (+750) and Scottie Scheffler (+600). The two are playing some of the best golf in the world right now, and Rahm has been sensational at this course. I’d have no complaints if anyone wanted to single-bullet either of the two. This week, I am trying to beat them. Rahm has seen issues off the tee recently, which could cost you at a course like Muirfield, and despite gaining the most strokes tee-to-green, Scheffler has been horrible putting. That leaves some room to bet on other golfers in the field.

Muirfield Village underwent renovations a couple of years back. Jack Nicklaus wanted the course to play firmer, faster, and more difficult. While the fairways here a wider than at Oak Hill, the rough is just as penal. Missing fairways here, much like at Oak Hill, can mean bogey or worse. The greens will be firm and hard to stop approaches. Ball strikers will be at a premium again this week.

Key Metrics Correlated to Success:

  • Good Drives Gained
  • Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
  • SG: Approach
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Par 4: 450-400
  • SG: Around the Green

Picks to win the 2023 Memorial Tournament:

Viktor Hovland +2000

Outside of the obvious big two, there aren’t many golfers in the world playing better than Viktor Hovland. He’s played most of the elevated events very well. He had a T10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a T3 at The Players Championship, a T7 at the Masters, a T2 at the PGA Championship, and a T16 at the Charles Schwab. Let’s take a moment to appreciate how great Hovland has been. These courses are challenging. He played some of the most difficult courses on Tour and finished no worse than T16.

Hovland’s skillset will set up well for him this week. His ball striking over the last 36 rounds is second only to Scheffler. He’s arguably the best iron player in the field, and his around-the-green numbers have seen signs of improvement. It’s only a matter of time before Hovland starts winning regularly. Any price over +2000 at courses that reward great driving prowess is a bet I must make.

Corey Conners +4500 – 0.25 units

Corey Conners is another great ball striker that has shown some serious form over the past few months. He won the Valero Texas Open, mainly due to great ball striking. He gained +3.9 strokes off-the-tee and another +9.6 on approach. Except the Masters, his ball striking has been world-class. Many can look to his finish at the PGA Championship as to why he shouldn’t be a pick this week. It’s hard to win a major. The stress of trying to close one out a major on a Sunday is enough to force anyone to shoot 5-over-par in the final round. I expect Conners great playing to continue well and quickly forget about his dreadful Sunday.