The PGA Tour’s postseason heads west to Chicago for the BMW Championship, and this week presents the biggest unknown of the playoffs.
While there was ample course history for last week’s stop at TPC Boston, and there are plenty of data points for East Lake and the upcoming Tour Championship, the BMW will be held on a course that few in the field have ever played before. Olympia Fields CC last hosted a men’s professional event with the 2003 U.S. Open, while a handful in this week’s field (including winner Bryson DeChambeau) played it during the 2015 U.S. Amateur. Long off the tee with small greens and thick rough, it’s a par-70 track where 10 under par could prove to be the winning score - a far cry from Dustin Johnson‘s 30-under total last week.
Justin Thomas won last year’s event at nearby Medinah. He returns at No. 2 in points behind Johnson, jockeying for Tour Championship position, while many in the 70-player field are simply vying for a spot in next week’s 30-man event.
[[ad:athena]]
From players who seem poised to vie for the trophy to enticing longshots and head-to-head matchups, here are some wagers to consider for the season’s penultimate event:
To Win (odds via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Webb Simpson (20/1): Simpson is on another run of form, following his T-3 finish at Wyndham with a T-6 result at The Northern Trust. He’s a strong putter and one of the best on Tour with an iron in hand, a potent combination for a course where accuracy into the greens will matter and where capitalizing on birdie chances will be imperative. Already with two wins under his belt this season, he’s playing some of the best golf of his career. He’s behind some long hitters this week on the odds sheet, but Olympia Fields should stifle some of that advantage with punitive rough and play more into the hands of a ball-striker like Simpson. (Ed. Note: Simpson withdrew from the event Tuesday, citing a desire to rest up for the Tour Championship.)
Collin Morikawa (25/1): Did someone say ball-striking? Enter the reigning PGA Champ, who had plenty of muscle to take down Harding Park despite ranking outside the top 100 on Tour in driving distance. But as he showed in San Francisco, he knows when to lay back and when to get aggressive off the tee. Third in strokes gained: tee-to-green, second in SG: approach, he’s as reliable as they come on full shots and will contend any time the putter warms up. It didn’t last week in Boston, where he missed just his second cut as a pro, but he won his very next start (Workday) the only other time he missed a cut. Moving forward, it’ll be increasingly rare to see eight names above his on an odds board, regardless of venue.
Scottie Scheffler (35/1): That first win is coming soon. Scheffler has made the most of his rookie campaign, qualifying for multiple WGCs before ensuring a spot at East Lake thanks in large part to a second-round 59 last week in Boston. He’s riding a streak of four straight top-25 finishes, with T-4 results at both the PGA and the playoff opener. While the putter is typically a weak spot, he has been far exceeding his season average on the greens over his last four starts and got a glimpse of Olympia Fields during the 2015 U.S. Amateur.
Top 10s/Top 20s (odds via DraftKings)
Robby Shelton (+450 top 20)
Shelton was one of the surprise qualifiers last week, closing with a final-round 63 that was the best of the day at TPC Boston to extend his season. And while few in the field have much local knowledge around this week’s venue, he actually has some notable success: Shelton was a co-medalist at a 2013 college event at Olympia Fields and made the Round of 16 there during the U.S. Amateur two years later. Shelton was also T-3 last month at the 3M Open, and now he offers an appetizing combination of confidence, momentum, course knowledge and a low-risk, high-reward playoff environment.
Alex Noren (+500 top 10)
It was only a few weeks ago that Noren was on the wrong side of the top-125 bubble and in jeopardy of downgrading his PGA Tour status. Now he’s inside the top 70 with a chance to advance to East Lake and rescue his 2021 schedule from the ashes. The Swede remains on a bit of a heater, with three top-10 finishes in his last four starts sandwiched around a T-22 result at the PGA. Noren fell off a cliff following a 2018 campaign that earned him a Ryder Cup berth and saw him ranked inside the top 10 in the world, but he’s very clearly on the comeback trail with results to show for it.
Kevin Streelman (+900 top 10)
Long odds on a wily veteran with a local angle and a penchant for going low. Sign me up. Streelman hasn’t won in six years, but he starts the week inside the top 30 thanks in large part to a pair of runner-up finishes at Pebble Beach and TPC River Highlands. The Chicago native has historically missed plenty of cuts, but he also makes the most out of the weeks when things are clicking. That includes back-to-back top-10s this summer at Travelers and Workday, and last week he flashed potential with an opening-round 64 at TPC Boston.
Head-to-Head Matchups (odds via Westgate)
Kevin Kisner (-105) over Harris English
This is an example of recent results overly influencing the line. Yes, English has been rock-solid this season and is coming off a runner-up finish last week. But Kisner has the more well-rounded arsenal and hasn’t exactly been slacking recently, finishing T-4 in Boston after a T-3 in Greensboro. Both are strong with irons and putters in hand, but Kisner has been a little more reliable on the greens since the break, including last week when he was seventh in SG: putting. Throw in English’s relatively weaker proximity stats from 175-225 yards, which could be a popular distance range this week, and it’s an opportunity to fade the recency bias.
Xander Schauffele (-110) over Rory McIlroy
This is an example of the line telling the story. On what planet are Schauffele and McIlroy considered on equal footing? McIlroy was a dominant force to start the year, and Schauffele hasn’t won in 18 months. But it’s been a different story since the break, as McIlroy has yet to register a top-10 finish in seven starts. Last week he spoke openly about his struggle to find an emotional edge without fans around, and his game is mired in mediocrity. The putting doesn’t even fit that description: last week he ranked dead last out of 70 players on the greens. Schauffele, meanwhile, has notched six straight top-25 finishes and consistently contended, including at the PGA. Believe it or not, he’s the more reliable play this week.
Louis Oosthuizen (+110) over Paul Casey
Paul Casey is gassed, and he’s playing like it. The Englishman lamented an empty tank two weeks ago at the Wyndham, when he was playing his fifth event in a row, and faded over the weekend. It was a similar story last week, where he was 61st out of 70 in SG: tee-to-green. Now he’s making his seventh start in as many weeks and will need a huge result to make it to East Lake for the sixth straight year. Oosthuizen, meanwhile, should be energized after snagging the final BMW spot in the dark Sunday night. It was his third straight solid result, and his more recent stats have outpaced his early-season performance.
