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The PGA Tour resumes this week in Jackson, Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship. The eighth edition of the tournament held at the Country Club of Jackson, the name of the game is strong ball-striking and hot putting down south.
When looking at previous winners such as Sergio Garcia, Sebastian Munoz, and Cameron Champ, and to some extent Ryan Armour in 2018, all four had strikingly similar weeks from a statistical standpoint. Last year, Garcia putted blind – quite literally – as he closed his eyes on the greens and posted +2.5 Strokes Gained: Putting.
A strong performance for a putter of his caliber, the Spaniard bucked the trend of winners posting north of six-strokes gained on the greens. Dating back to 2015, each winner had done such, including a performance of +11.8 SG: Putting by Peter Malnati.
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In addition to the uptick in putting, there is an inherent downturn in around-the-green play. Each of the past three winners lost strokes in that area of the bag, further solidifying the necessity for competent iron-play.
The oddsmakers at Points Bet Sportsbook have priced numerous head-to-head matchups ahead of the Sanderson Farms Championship. We’ll look to put our analysis to the test and improve on our record from the Fortinet Championship.
Head-to-Head Matchups (Odds Via PointsBet):
Harold Varner III (-115) over Gary Woodland
We’ll go back to the well with Varner this week as it proved to be a fruitful proposition in Napa. Now connecting on three top-20 finishes in a row, the East Carolina product appears to be in the midst of some of his very best golf. These finishes include a tie for 11th at The Northern Trust, a tie for 12th at the BMW Championship, and a tie for 16th at the Fortinet Championship.
Throw in a tie for 11th at the John Deere Classic and Varner has not missed a cut here stateside since the first week of July. Courtesy of a well-rounded effort, when one aspect of the bag appears to be off, the rest of his game answers the call.
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While it is less than ideal losing strokes on approach at the Fortinet Championship, Varner has shown the ability to bounce back with his scoring clubs. The last three times the 31-year-old lost strokes on approach, he followed it up in his next start with performances of +6.7, +3.3, and +2.5 SG: Approach.
If that trend continues, Varner’s week will boil down to his putting. Having gained nearly five-strokes with the flat stick in two of his last three starts, he is finding his touch on the greens and should bode well for his chances at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Making his tournament debut this week is Woodland who has been a tough cookie to crack as of late. While the winning upside is there in a field of this caliber, so is the missed cut potential. Finishing his 2020-2021 campaign by missing the weekend in four of his last seven starts, inconsistencies have riddle Woodland’s game.
His irons have actually been quite steady, but the rest of his game looks like a rollercoaster. I’d much rather side with Varner who could be close to something special as opposed to Woodland who may be searching for some form in Jackson.
Sungjae Im (-121) over Sergio Garcia
Blindly fading Garcia after an emotional Ryder Cup felt like something I could get behind without any further research. That was until stat guru, Justin Ray, posted this tidbit on Twitter. While a compelling case to expect a strong showing from the defending champion, I am not buying it.
Namely because he had time off in between those starts and the Ryder Cup. Weeks, sometimes even a full month removed from the emotions of the Ryder Cup is far, far different than a mere few days. While there were bright spots for Garcia at Whistling Straits, all of his success was in unison with Jon Rahm. Diving deeper, he was hardly as impressive as he appeared to the naked eye, finishing the week 8-under on his own ball (in the various playing formats).
Between an emotional letdown and perhaps a misconstrued performance, there could be some rough patches for Garcia at the Country Club of Jackson. Leaving the door open for Im, who was rounding into form before the Tour Championship. While it was a forgettable week at East Lake, he was playing beautifully coming in, posting performances of +8.6, +6.6, and +5.7 SG: Tee-to-Green in his three starts prior.
Returning to Country Club of Jackson for the fourth time, Im was a playoff loser to Sebastian Munoz in 2019. Having had some success on the Bermuda greens here, there is inevitable optimism as it was the lone area of his game holding him back at the end of last season. If the putter cooperates, it should hold the missing piece to yet another strong performance in Mississippi.
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