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The Plantation Course at Kapalua was defenseless on Friday as players tore apart the Coore and Crenshaw design. Yielding a scoring average of 67.82 those who were making pars were left in the dust as some of the best in the world took advantage of soft conditions, preferred lies, and lack of trade winds.
It appeared early as if overnight leader, Cameron Smith, had a poor night’s rest as the wily Australian opened his second round with two consecutive bogeys. Yet as he did in Round 1, Smith would jump start his round courtesy of an eagle-3 on the par-5 fifth.
From there, the race was on as birdies and eagles were flying left and right all while dodging the occasional wild boar sighting. Tacking on nine additional birdies, including four in his final four holes, Smith bettered his first-round of 8-under 65 by one-stroke. Carding a two-round total of 17-under 129, Smith matched the 36-hole tournament record set by Ernie Els in 2003.
Extending his lead to three-strokes over Jon Rahm (-14) and Daniel Berger (-14) and four-strokes over Patrick Cantlay (-13), Smith has a tall task ahead of him over the weekend. Particularly when it comes to fending off the world No. 1 as the Spaniard appeared to have carded the worst possible score on Friday...a 7-under 66.
Hitting every fairway and every green in regulation – a feat no player accomplished last season, per Brandel Chamblee – Rahm’s tee-to-green prowess was on full display. When asked what went well In Round 2, the U.S. Open Champion said, “Pretty much everything. Can’t say much. It was really good tee to green.”
He would go on to add, “If there’s anything to put an asterisk on it is maybe putting. More than anything the speed, right? I feel like the greens were a little bit slower today. Me and Patrick talked about it a little bit. It could have just been us, but it felt like they were a little bit slower and I just felt like I left a lot of putts out there on line that with the right speed might have had a chance of going in. But either way, still a solid round of golf.”
Having tipped Smith pre-tournament, I am terrified of not only Rahm, but also Cantlay and Berger as the trio have left plenty of strokes on the greens. Despite the low-scoring nature of this tournament and the openness this provides the rest of the field, I do believe the winner will come from this group of players (hot take alert).
If you are in the market for a potential chaser over the last 36-holes, I don’t mind either Kevin Na (-11) or Sam Burns (-10) given their abilities to catch lightning in a bottle with the putter in hand. I personally will not be going in this direction and will instead look to right the wrong from our second-round matchup.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet Sportsbook):
+150: Cameron Smith
+340: Jon Rahm
+550: Daniel Berger
+700: Patrick Cantlay
+2000: Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im
+3300: Xander Schauffele
+5000: Brooks Koepka, Sam Burns
+6600: Bryson DeChambeau, Kevin Na
+8000: Marc Leishman
+12500: Collin Morikawa
Round 3 Play (Odds Via PointsBet):
Stewart Cink +225 over Xander Schauffele (1.0 unit):
Clearly not learning our lesson to not pick on past winners in Maui, this price tag on Cink is too long to pass up. Sitting sixth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green courtesy of ranking third in SG: Off-the-Tee, 16th in SG: Approach, and 15th in SG: Around-the-Green, the 48-year-old appears primed for a breakout performance in the third round.
While he has disappointed on the greens – something not all too surprising – it is really his par-5 scoring which I am looking towards for improvement. Playing the par-5s in only 3-under to this point, Cink occupies the eighth spot on the leaderboard alongside a litany of players including his competitor, Schauffele.
Collecting his last victory on the PGA Tour at the Plantation Course at Kapalua, Schauffele is always a tough out on this par-73. However, if there was ever a time to catch the world No. 6 sleeping, it may in fact be in Round 3. Ranking 34th in SG: Approach (in a 38-man field), the 28-year-old has gotten by with an extraordinary effort from his short-game.
Consistently connecting from distance on the greens and sometimes even off, I am willing to suggest those chances fall by the wayside on Saturday. If this proves to be the case, Cink should have an angle to squeak past Schauffele as a heavy underdog.
YTD: 0-1 (-1.30 units)
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