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The PGA Tour got its year underway in style as 38 winners took to the Plantation Course at Kapalua on Thursday. From Mark Rolfing on the microphone to Erik van Rooyen’s mustache to Hideki Matsuyama’s highlighter yellow pants, it felt as if no time had passed since the RSM Classic.
With soft conditions due to heavy rainfall earlier in the week, scoring was ideal as winds were relatively calm. Playing nearly 3.50 strokes under par, most of the field had its way with the Plantation Course. That was unless you were a past winner as Patrick Reed (+1), Justin Thomas (+1), Harris English (E), and Jordan Spieth (-2) all struggled. Xander Schauffele was the lone bright spot for previous Tournament of Champions victors as he finished somewhat fast and carded a round of 4-under 69.
The man they will all be hoping to track down over the course of the next 54-holes is the wild Australian, Cameron Smith. Admittingly having struggled with his yardages early in his round, Smith found himself even-par through his first four holes. Jump starting his day with an eagle on the easy par-5 fifth, the Zurich Classic winner got into red figures.
He would play spotless golf from there on out as he tacked on four more birdies and an eagle on the par-5 15th to shoot an 8-under 65. When asked to describe his round, the 28-year-old said, “Yeah, I mean, I started off pretty terribly, to be honest. I hit a couple of nice shots in and my yardages weren’t quite on point, I guess. Yeah, I just needed those two eagles to get a really low one happening. Obviously two really long putts and probably quite fortunate that they went in, but they went in.”
Smith expects the scoring to remain ideal as he cited the soft conditions and the need to keep the pedal to the metal over the next three days. He will need to do just that as he will attempt to fend off two of the hottest players from the 2020-21 season in Jon Rahm (-7) and Patrick Cantlay (-7).
Even though he holds a one-stroke advantage after Thursday’s play, it is not Smith, but Rahm who is the favorite at PointsBet Sportsbook. At +400, his odds have been nearly cut in half as the world No. 1 opened as the favorite and began the week at +750.
As for us, our first-round leader selections ran flat with Joel Dahmen giving it a fine effort. On the flip, our three outright selections did not play themselves out of the tournament, which is always the goal for the first-round. Because of this, we will look to the head-to-head matchup market in Round 2 to recuperate our slight Thursday loss.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
+400: Jon Rahm
+500: Cameron Smith, Patrick Cantlay
+750: Daniel Berger
+1200: Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im
+1800: Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka
+2000: Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele
+2200: Kevin Na
+3300: Erik van Rooyen, Talor Gooch
+4000: Hideki Matsuyama
+5000: Marc Leishman, Tony Finau
Round 2 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet):
Justin Thomas -130 over Patrick Reed (1.30 units):
Despite never wanting to lay this much juice in a single round head-to-head matchup, Thomas warrants consideration in the second round. A two-time winner at the Plantation Course at Kapalua, his first-round performance was the definition of an outlier. In six prior appearances, the world No. 8 had garnered a scoring average of 69.13, a far cry from his round of 1-over 74.
His ball-striking figures (–0.60 Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and –1.82 SG: Approach) may not inspire confidence, but his long-term metrics are too good to pass up. A top-three iron-player on the PGA Tour, the 28-year-old will simply need to play the par-5s in a mistake-free fashion in the second round. 1-over on them yesterday, courtesy of a double-bogey on No. 9 and bogey on No. 15, the room for improvement is clearly there as he lost his tee-shot on both holes.
Reed’s round of 1-over was vastly different from Thomas’ in that he actually enjoyed a rather strong finish, having played his final eight holes in 3-under. Battling back from a double-bogey on No. 10, the American displayed both extremes of his game.
The world No. 25 may have posted superior approach figures (+1.20 SG: Approach) in Round 1, but Thomas possesses too much firepower and should be in line for a nice bounce back on Friday. Reed’s past success at Kapalua has been predicated primarily on the flat stick, an area of the game where he has struggled in recent memory. Factor in losing nearly four-strokes off-the-tee as well and the plus-money option, while tempting, is too short for my liking.
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