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We were much closer than the results may have indicated last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship. With a couple of our selections with a real chance to post the low Thursday score failing to come through at the end of their rounds, I still have confidence we are heading in the right direction.
Instead of dwelling on the past – and Sahith Theegala being the odd man out for our selections – we turn our attention to TPC Summerlin for the Shriners Children’s Open. The first of two weeks in Las Vegas, 15 of the top 30 players in the world make their way to Sin City.
The strongest field of this young season, the presence of such players gives way for tantalizing numbers down the odds board. A tournament that has seen long shots such as Martin Laird and Rod Pampling as well as up-and-coming stars in Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau come through should be to our liking.
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As it was just last year when a new-and-improved DeChambeau blitzed the field in the first-round. Hot off his U.S. Open victory, DeChambeau carded an opening round of 9-under 62. Driving greens, reaching par-5’s in two, the near long drive champion took full advantage of his length.
However, to say length is required would simply be untrue. There are numerous avenues through which one can find success in Las Vegas – whether local knowledge, precise iron-play, or unconscious putting (see Kevin Na in 2019).
The oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have priced the first-round leader market ahead of the Shriners Children’s Open. Tournament-favorite Viktor Hovland, amongst others, leads the way at +3300 while last week’s first-round leader, Theegala, sits at +10000.
At the time of this article, there appears to be a slight edge to those in the morning wave of play. Winds could pick up to 10 miles per hour in the afternoon, but as we know weather is ever-changing and it is not enough to sway me completely to the pool of players off early.
Odds to Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
+3300: Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland
+4000: Abraham Ancer, Harris English, Kevin Na, Paul Casey, Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Webb Simpson, Will Zalatoris
+5000: Charley Hoffman, Corey Conners, Jason Kokrak, Louis Oosthuizen, Matthew Wolff, Maverick McNealy, Patrick Reed, Si Woo Kim
To Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
Patton Kizzire +8000:
Making his fifth Shriners Children’s Open appearance this week, Kizzire has enjoyed his time in Las Vegas. A runner-up showing in his debut in 2015 was followed up with a top-5 finish in 2017. He has since made the cut in each of his outings at TPC Summerlin, including last season when he finished in a tie for 24th.
Getting around the desert to the tune of 67-68-65-69 a year ago, Kizzire never had his full bag cooperating. Losing strokes to the field in one area or another each round, I am hoping Thursday in Las Vegas will play out similar to Kizzire’s first-round in Jackson.
Carding a 5-under 67, the 35-year-old gained strokes across the board, posting +1.6 Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking in unison with +1.8 SG: Putting. With a career scoring average of 68.22 at TPC Summerlin, if he is able to put together such an effort in Round 1, he is a strong candidate to post an early score for the rest of the field to chase.
Adam Hadwin +10000:
Making weekly appearances on the Thursday leaderboard as of late, the Canadian now comes to one of his favorite courses. Possessing a career scoring average of 67.83 at TPC Summerlin, Hadwin looks to back up finishes of T-4 in 2019 and T-34 in 2020. While last year’s finish doesn’t look great, it is a bit misleading due to a final round of 3-over 74.
Despite the troubles in the final round last season, Hadwin has shown time and time again he can take it low in Las Vegas. In his last two Shriners Children’s Open appearances, Hadwin has carded rounds of 8-under 63 in 2019 and 9-under 62 just last year.
Carding first-round scores of 64 at the Wyndham, 66 at the Fortinet, and 67 at the Sanderson Farms, Hadwin has been exquisite from tee-to-green. Combined with his typical, steady putter, Hadwin is primed to get out of the gates fast once again.
Peter Malnati +10000:
From here on out, you’ll be seeing some usual suspects and it begins with Malnati. Despite failing to come through for us last week at Country Club of Jackson, he really did not do too much wrong. Posting +0.4 SG: Off-the-Tee and +1.3 SG: Approach, the ball-striking stayed true to its current form with the putter, surprisingly, falling flat.
Capturing a top-5 finish at last year’s Shriners Children’s Open, Malnati posted rounds of 66-62-71-66. Finding his form from tee-to-green to begin the new season, I am hoping for a big bounce back week with the putter. Having found greener pastures on these putting surfaces in the past, I am comfortable in saying Malnati does just that on Thursday.
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Mark Hubbard +12500:
For a player known for his putting, Hubbard has done a poor job relying solely on such as the ball-striking has received a nice uptick as of late. Liking his chances before the Fortinet Championship, the 32-year-old gained strokes from tee-to-green for the sixth time in his last seven starts.
Combined with his main weapon - the putter - and “Homeless Hubbs” was able to connect on his third top-20 finish in his last four starts. Clearly in the midst of some fantastic play and new found levels of confidence, I will take a stab on his current form rather than his course history at TPC Summerlin.
Making his sixth Shriners Children’s Open appearance this week, Hubbard has three missed cuts and zero top-30 finishes to this point. He has rounds of 67 and 66 in his last two showings in Las Vegas, meaning just a slight improvement to his previous best will be needed.
Sam Ryder +12500:
I wrote down in capital letters last Thursday, “Stop betting on Ryder.” Clearly a glutton for punishment, this week I will be forgoing my own advice and returning to the 31-year-old in the first-round. Making his fifth appearance at TPC Summerlin, Ryder has a mixed bag of two missed cuts and two quality finishes.
Capturing a top-5 finish in 2018, Ryder narrowly did so again in 2019, having entered the final round at 17-under before a 2-over 73 derailed his aspirations. Despite this, TPC Summerlin feels like the ideal spot for Ryder.
Boasting larger-than-average greens, Ryder has been proficient with his iron-play as of late. Getting into trouble around-the-green, the vast size of the greens and the mere difficulties surrounding them brings his glaring weakness back to field average.
James Hahn +15000:
Hahn has always had an affinity for the desert and this year should be no different. After faltering down the stretch of the Waste Management Phoenix Open, effectively handing the trophy to Brooks Koepka, we didn’t really see much from the 39-year-old.
Finding a semblance of form towards the end of the 2020-2021 PGA Tour season - courtesy of a third-round 60 at the Barbasol - Hahn started the new season on the right foot despite what the lone result may indicate. Missing the cut at the Fortinet Championship, Hahn posted +4.3 SG: Tee-to-Green in only two rounds of play.
Hahn has consistently played well at TPC Summerlin and looks to follow up last year’s top-5 finish at the Shriners Children’s Open. Connecting on weekend appearances in five consecutive showings, Hahn carded four rounds in the 60’s in 2020, posting 64-66-67-68. If he can find a somewhat cooperative putter then he stands a decent chance to get out to an early lead.
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