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It was not always pretty during the third round, but Russell Henley will carry a two-stroke lead into the final day of play at the Sony Open. Carding a round of 3-under 67, Henley’s day was filled with peaks and valleys as he battled Waialae Country Club and the demons within.
Looking to become the sixth multiple-time winner at the Sony Open, the 32-year-old began Saturday 1-over through his first six holes. Surrendering his overnight lead, Henley then converted birdie efforts on three of his next five holes to get to 17-under. Seemingly shaken of all nerves, he arrived to the difficult par-4 13th with his swing intact.
In what was probably the moment of the round, Henley dumped his third shot from in front of the putting surface into the greenside bunker. Successfully getting up-and-down from the sand, Henley dropped only one-stroke when two seemed inevitable. Tacking on birdies at the par-4 15th and the par-3 17th, Henley pulled away from Hideki Matsuyama who was already in the clubhouse at 16-under after a round of 7-under 63.
When asked how it is to sleep on a 54-hole lead, Henley said, “Yeah, it’s tough. I’ve slept on a few leads the last couple years. It’s hard. I struggle to sleep. I’m already not the best sleeper. But, yeah, I mean, the thing is you look at what the Hideki did today, he shot 7-under. Guys are so good out here. You just have to play at such a high level for so long to be in contention. So hopefully I can keep doing that and play well tomorrow, give myself a chance on the back nine.”
The oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have made it somewhat of a two-man race heading into the final round of the Sony Open. With Henley listed at +105 and Matsuyama a touch longer at +220, it will be interesting to see if anyone outside the final group can give chase.
As for us, we split our head-to-head matchups on Saturday as the avoidance of Harris English was a success, yet the backing of J.T. Poston was not. Our pre-tournament outright selections ran into a bit of trouble, leaving us without hope on Sunday. While I do see a touch of value in Henley’s number, I am unable to stomach it given his previous final round woes. Instead, we will sit back, relax, and stick to the matchup department as two have caught my eye.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
+105: Russell Henley
+220: Hideki Matsuyama
+1600: Seamus Power
+2200: Matt Kuchar
+3000: Adam Svensson
+3300: Kevin Kisner
+4000: Haotong Li
+6000: Lucas Glover
+10000: Cam Davis
+15000: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Russell Knox, Talor Gooch
+25000: Brandt Snedeker
Round 4 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet):
Charles Howell III +100 over Brendon Todd (1.00 unit):
Despite falling short of our pre-tournament aspirations, Howell has put together a solid Sony Open up to this point. Connecting on his 21st consecutive cut at Waialae CC, the Augusta, Georgia native’s second round of 7-under 63 propelled him into the weekend.
While his tee-to-green numbers appear to be lackluster, a closer look at some basic statistics may lead to some answers. Eighth in Greens in Regulation and 15th in Driving Accuracy, the proximity in which Howell has been hitting his irons is the main issue as he ranks 51st in Strokes Gained: Approach.
Lagging behind on and around-the-greens, it is only a matter of time before everything clicks. Taking a page out of Kramer Hickok’s book, Howell has been phenomenal off-the-tee and if able to continue to hit fairways on Sunday, the rest of his game should be able to rise to the occasion.
Which is typically the strength of Todd’s game, however not this week. At 7-under alongside Howell, Todd ranks 42nd in Driving Accuracy and 59th in Greens in Regulation. Last in the field in SG: Approach on Saturday, more of the same could be in store if the driver continues to abandon him. Always a tough out given his putting prowess, I am hopeful those converted efforts on the greens won’t be enough against Howell.
Lucas Glover +155 over Kevin Kisner (1.00 unit):
It is pretty amazing Kisner lost strokes on approach on Saturday en route to his round of 5-under 65. Appearing to get more and more comfortable on the greens as the week progresses, Kisner has played himself inside the top-10 and sits at 13-under.
He has done this in a typical Kisner fashion, giving up strokes to the field with his iron-play only to be saved by his short-game. While it is how he is known to get the job done, this line on Glover is too long to ignore as his ball-striking has been exquisite.
Second in SG: Tee-to-Green by way of leading the field in SG: Approach, Glover is the polar opposite of the U.S. Ryder Cup snub. Carding a round of 6-under 64 on Saturday, the former U.S. Open Champion showed exactly what he can do when the putter chooses to cooperate.
We aren’t asking him to gain two or three-strokes on the greens like Kisner, but just breaking even with the field should be enough. Having found some touch with the flat stick in hand in Round 3, if this comfort level continues into the final round, he will have a decent opportunity to come through for us at a nice price.
2/3-Balls YTD: +1.20 units, 19.05%
Total YTD: +30.31 units, 259.17%
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