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The two players at the top are beginning to inch away from the competition as Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm have separated themselves from the chasing pack heading into the weekend at the TOUR Championship.
Playing the role of steady Eddie on Friday, Cantlay got around East Lake Golf Club in a bogey-free manner. In what was a walk in the park 18-holes, the BMW Championship winner carded a second round 4-under 66. At 17-under for the championship, and 7-under for the week, Cantlay has been rock solid thus far and possesses a one-stroke lead over his Friday playing competitor.
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Ranking first in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Cantlay has utilized a balanced approach through the first 36-holes. Seventh off-the-tee, third on approach, and fourth from around-the-green, the only area of the game where the leader is lacking is in fact on the greens.
After gaining nearly 15-strokes with the putter last week at Caves Valley, it has been a completely different story at East Lake. At 26th in the field in SG: Putting, Cantlay has lost nearly two-strokes, yet improved today compared to Round 1, losing only –0.37 strokes with the flat stick.
Perhaps it is because the world No. 1 is stealing all of the magic on the greens from Cantlay. Ranking second in the field in SG: Putting and first in SG: Around-the-Green, it hasn’t been the typical ball-striking clinic that we have grown accustomed to from Rahm.
In fact, en route to his second consecutive 5-under 65, Rahm ranked 28th in the field in SG: Approach, losing nearly two-strokes with his irons. Perhaps a scary prospect, but if those clubs come around for Rahm, the rest of the game appears to be willing and able to overcome the one-stroke deficit over the next couple of days.
Standing at 16-under, Rahm leads the other 29 players from the level playing field perspective as he is 10-under this week. Getting the better of his counterparts by three-strokes thus far, Kevin Na, Billy Horschel, and Cantlay are all 7-under at East Lake to this point.
The oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have it as a clear two-man race heading into the weekend at the TOUR Championship. Despite trailing by a stroke, Rahm is the odds-on favorite at –105, while Cantlay is close behind at +1400.
Updated Odds to Win the FedEx Cup (Odds Via PointsBet):
-105: Jon Rahm
+140: Patrick Cantlay
+1400: Bryson DeChambeau
+2000: Justin Thomas
+4000: Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland
Round 3 Targets:
Speaking with Golf Channel’s Steve Sands after his second-round, I loved what Spieth had to say. Giving himself plenty of opportunities, and converting on said opportunities, the 2015 FedEx Cup Champion has made too many mistakes through his first two days of play. Well aware of this, Spieth essentially said when this happens, he knows some of his best golf is on the horizon.
It’s hard to argue with the soon-to-be father, as he and his wife are expecting their first child in November. While he struggled tee-to-green in the first-round, he bounced back on Friday, ranking fifth in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green on the day. Gaining strokes in all three of those statistical categories, it was the flat stick that let the Texan down. With two three-putts and a missing out on a scoring opportunity on the par-5 6th, I expect Spieth to right those wrongs in tomorrow’s round.
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The man with all of the “perspective” in last season’s TOUR Championship was McIlroy as the Northern Irishman arrived to Atlanta as a new father. At 6-under through his first 36-holes, and 8-under for the tournament, the two-time FedEx Cup victor may be too far back to chase down Cantlay and Rahm. Yet I still believe he will make for a viable matchup option or top-5 play as he sits in a tie for 10th at the moment.
Leading the field in SG: Tee-to-Green on Friday, the Northern Irishman put together a round of 4-under 66. Carding seven birdies on the day, McIlroy is in an eerily similar spot to Spieth through the first two days. Second in the field in birdies made at 12, he too has made one too many mistakes. With the irons that have disappointed him in the postseason coming around, gaining +1.13 SG: Approach on Friday, I expect McIlroy to put the pedal to the metal over the weekend.
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