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Daylight savings and a marathon of a PLAYERS Championship have my internal clock all out of whack as we are just two days away from yet another golf tournament. This week it is the Valspar Championship as it moves back to its usual spot on the calendar after being played in early May in 2021.
I appear to not be alone as Joaquin Niemann withdrew from the tournament on Monday, a theme which may snowball into Tuesday. Despite this, we journey on as the return to March should bring more difficult conditions after Sam Burns’ (+2200) 17-under effort around the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook last season.
With the winning score typically in the neighborhood of 10-under, those who are able to effectively skirt past trouble are persons of interest. Two-time Valspar Championship winner, Paul Casey (+2000), will draw initial attention after his close call at TPC Sawgrass as he is in fine form and ranks inside the top-10 in this field in Bogey Avoidance.
While course history and current form are converging for the Englishman, the inclusion of nine of the top-20 players in the world makes the metaphorical mountain all the more difficult to climb. As such, it is world No. 8 Justin Thomas (+1000) who headlines the odds board at PointsBet Sportsbook.
It was in Tampa a year ago when both Thomas and Dustin Johnson (+1400) were heavily bet on as the tournament took shape. Looking fantastic from tee-to-green, neither were able to figure out the greens of the Copperhead Course and eventually finished T-13 and T-29 respectively.
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Off strong finishes at The PLAYERS Championship, the Ryder Cuppers should factor just as teammates Collin Morikawa (+1200) and Xander Schauffele (+1800) should despite their missed cuts in Ponte Vedra Beach. All four are likely to join forces again this fall for the Presidents Cup at Quail Hollow Club, a team Jason Kokrak (+4000) very much wants to be a part of.
Ninth in the team standings at the moment, he is on the outside looking in and whether he wants to admit it or not, his name is one Captain Davis Love III could easily pass over come selection Sunday. Needing to put fate into his own hands, a quality outing at the Valspar Championship has the potential to kickstart his summer campaign.
While yet to contend in 2022, the consistency in Kokrak’s game is evident, going 4-for-4 in weekend appearances relying primarily on his iron play and putting. An oddity for a man who, when on, can drive the golf ball with the best of them, a return to the Copperhead Course may be just what he needs.
With most of his off-the-tee woes coming in the form of one loose swing here or there, a look back at the past six champions provides hope. Averaging 68th in Driving Accuracy the week of their victories – with the best being Casey in 2019 (14th) and worst also being Casey, but in 2018 (118th) - the remaining pieces of Kokrak’s skillset can takeover.
Just as they have done in the past as he has collected three consecutive top-13 finishes on this par-71, including a T-2 effort in 2019. Losing strokes around-the-green in two of these instances, the uptick in this area of the bag during the Florida Swing is a welcomed sight.
A strong par-3 player, which there are five of, it is one of the reasons the world No. 26 often plays so well here. Top-20 in Bogey Avoidance and Strokes Gained: Putting, Kokrak has a great opportunity to join Hideki Matsuyama, Cameron Smith, and Scottie Scheffler as a two-time winner on Tour this season.
A theme in our selections will be players who have experienced both peaks and valleys in their careers. A commonality in nearly all professional golfers, a player back on the upswing is Alex Noren (+6600). A few months from his 40th birthday, many forget the Swede was once a top-10 player in the world.
A member of the European Ryder Cup Team on his own accord in 2018, Noren appears to be trending to such quality once again. Finishing in a tie for sixth at the WM Phoenix Open by way of a hot putter, I dismissed this finish as Noren’s best results have often come when he finds magic on the greens.
Figuring this was one of those instances, I was surprised to see the iron play come alive once the Tour traveled to Florida. Posting +5.40 SG: Approach at the Honda Classic and +5.00 SG: Approach last week in the better end of the draw, the rest of Noren’s game is finally catching up to his flat stick.
Surpassing it in some instances, Noren’s lone appearance at Innisbrook resulted in a tie for 21st last season. Posting +4.84 SG: Putting, this week could finally be the time for Noren to enter the winner’s circle on U.S. soil.
The prior discussion of Quail Hollow has me thinking of past Wells Fargo Championship winners such as Jason Day (+5000) or last year’s runner-up Abraham Ancer (+3000). To be in lockstep with Louis Oosthuizen (+2000) and potentially Adam Hadwin (+6000) come September, the International Team looms large as victory in the team event still escapes them.
Surely to be a fight, Charlotte resident Webb Simpson (+7000) will need to do something special over the next five months to draw any interest from leadership. Dealing with a neck injury, last week at The PLAYERS marked not only his first start since mid-January, but also the first time he employed a new driver for the entirety of a tournament.
Losing nearly three-strokes off-the-tee, the honeymoon phase was more of a nightmare, but I am hopeful the world No. 33 can right the ship. Roughly a year removed from being a top-5 player in the world, Simpson has gone winless since his victory at the RBC Heritage in June of 2020.
However, it was not all too long ago the 36-year-old went off as tournament favorite at the RSM Classic where he eventually finished in a tie for 12th. Posting north of +12.00 SG: Tee-to-Green in three measured rounds courtesy of +9.84 SG: Approach, it is these shorter, Southeast golf courses where the Wake Forest product thrives.
While it did not materialize at Waialae Country Club or TPC Sawgrass, I am willing to suggest it could at the Copperhead Course. A regular stop on his calendar, outside of 2021, Simpson possesses a mixed bag of results on this Larry Packard design.
In 10 previous starts, he has collected a runner-up, two top-10s, and two additional top-20 finishes, but also four missed cuts. With the majority his strong showings coming before 2014, there is not much Simpson can hang his hat on outside of his T-8 effort in 2018. Risky given his injuries and recent form, this is simply a play on his long-term form coming to light on a course well-suited for the 7-time winner on the PGA Tour.
Simpson was a member of the U.S. Team captained by Tiger Woods at Royal Melbourne in the last edition of the Presidents Cup. As was Matt Kuchar (+15000) who we can cross off the list for this upcoming year’s squad as the elder statesman will be finding himself in an assistant captaincy role if he is lucky.
Another 2019 President Cupper likely left off this year’s team is Gary Woodland (+8000) who has shown some serious form in the state of Florida. Kicking of his east coast swing with a top-5 effort the Honda Classic, a sloppy bogey from a greenside bunker on the 72nd hole left a sour taste in his mouth as an even bigger payday was within reach.
Following this up with more sand trouble at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, an eagle on the par-5 16th on Sunday propelled Woodland into the lead with just two holes to play. Giving it back immediately via a double-bogey on the par-3 17th, the 37-year-old fell into a tie for fifth-place.
Not putting too much into his play at The PLAYERS, I actually do not mind the missed cut as the extra couple of days will allow him to reset after two straight stressful Sundays (say that five-times fast). Returning to the site of his first win, the Copperhead Course has not been kind to the Kansas native in recent memory.
Arriving in both great and poor form, Woodland has been unable to crack the top-40 on the Valspar leaderboard since 2014. With his last three starts in Tampa reading MC-MC-MC, perhaps it is naïve to say this year will be different. Top-10 in Bogey Avoidance, Scrambling, and SG: Par-5s over his last 24 rounds, I will be doing just that as I believe the 2019 U.S. Open champion still has plenty left in his tank.
Getting into the portion of the odds board I find most interesting, a number of players who turned in strong outings last week check in. Both Doug Ghim (+10000) and Francesco Molinari (+10000) received plenty of air time and could carry this momentum from Ponte Vedra to Tampa.
Similar could be said of Doc Redman (+12500) and Kevin Streelman (+12500), but in the end, I was drawn to Patton Kizzire (+13000). A sneaky steady start to his year, the Auburn product has now collected a check in 6-of-7 tournaments in 2022.
With three of these coming in the form of top-22 finishes, Kizzire’s up-and-down play from off-the-tee often tells the tale of his week. Able to mask this at TPC Sawgrass with an extraordinary putting performance, the 36-year-old’s Valspar history can be discussed in the same vein.
In four previous showings, Kizzire is 3-of-4 making it to the weekend, including last year when he was second to Keegan Bradley (+5000) after the opening round. Struggling from tee-to-green, Kizzire has been saved by his putter each time he has stepped onto the Copperhead Course.
While this does give pause, Kizzire has also yet to come with his tee-to-green game in such high regard. Top-20 in SG: Tee-to-Green over his last 24 rounds, the two-time winner on Tour also finds himself inside the top-30 in SG: Approach, SG: Par-5s, Scrambling, and Greens in Regulation in this same period.
Outright Selections:
Jason Kokrak +4000 at BetRivers (0.83 units)
Alex Noren +6600 at PointsBet (0.50 units)
Webb Simpson +7000 at DraftKings (0.47 units)
Gary Woodland +8000 at DraftKings (0.41 units)
Patton Kizzire +13000 at DraftKings (0.26 units)
Outrights YTD: +73.99 units, +272.87%
Total YTD: +58.40 units, +83.40%
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