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Yet again the weather predictions were proven correct, but our first-round selections were not. A back breaking bogey on the 18th hole at TPC Sawgrass courtesy of Keith Mitchell perfectly encapsulated our Thursday luck in 2022.
Never one to attach an each-way wager – although the thought has certainly crossed my mind – this marked our fourth selection to finish on the Round 1 podium. More than making amends with a Sam Burns second round leader wager, we finally found the pay dirt, albeit not the coveted Thursday type.
Garnering a bit of confidence from this, it is reassuring to know we are circling our prey. After discussing the weather ad nauseum, we are given a break as the wind is minimal on Thursday with the likelihood of a slight increase in intensity come the afternoon hours.
With Wednesday showers playing a factor, those off in the morning will face a softer golf course with scorable conditions. Throwing the majority of our eggs in this basket, we will leave some room for error if this proves to be wrong.
Following in the footsteps of our full tournament analysis, streaky iron players who are capable of getting by the five difficult par-3s while also taking advantage of the four par-5s will be the primary targets. With good vibes of a Keegan Bradley first-round leader wager from a year ago, let’s see if we can make it two in a row at the Valspar Championship.
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Odds to Lead After the First Round (Odds Via PointsBet Sportsbook):
+2500: Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland
+2800: Dustin Johnson
+3000: Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele
+3300: Abraham Ancer, Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen, Shane Lowry, Tyrrell Hatton
+4000: Gary Woodland, Jason Kokrak, Matt Fitzpatrick
+5000: Alex Noren, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Jason Day, Keegan Bradley, Russell Knox, Tommy Fleetwood, Webb Simpson
To Lead After the First Round:
Alex Noren +7500 at DraftKings (0.27 units):
I am in agreement with most of PointsBet’s first round numbers this week and Noren is no exception. Sticking with the strategy of backing our outright selections on Thursday, the Swede has the ability to run as hot as anyone in the field.
12th in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 24 rounds, Noren’s uptick in iron play has accompanied his scrambling abilities and putting prowess. Somewhat sporadic off-the-tee, the need to club down at Innisbrook should play right into his hands.
He has been fairly consistent in his quality outings this season, carding four rounds of par-or-better at the Honda Classic and alternating rounds of 67 and 68 in Phoenix. Just needing to squeeze a little bit more juice out of his mid irons, if those come to life for 18 holes, the 39-year-old should be in store for a low one.
Patton Kizzire +10000 at PointsBet (0.20 units):
For better or for worse, Kizzire is becoming a mainstay in this article. Finally looking in his direction for the full tournament, the Auburn product was last on our radar at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he opened with a 3-under 69.
Failing to take advantage of the par-5s, those four holes will be crucial on Thursday as the makeup of his game looks strong. Top-10 in SG: Approach and top-20 in Birdies or Better over the last 24 rounds, the parallels drawn to the greens at TPC Sawgrass and TPC Scottsdale could be the eventual difference maker.
Posting single round performances of +2.1, 2.2, 3.8, and 1.0 SG: Putting across his eight rounds at those two venues, I like his chances to mirror those outings given his history at Innisbrook. Opening with a 5-under 66 in last year’s championship, if Kizzire can keep his ball in play, he should find himself in the mid-60’s once again.
J.J. Spaun +13000 at DraftKings (0.15 units):
I can’t seem to quit Spaun although his history here is less than stellar. Missing the cut in his two prior appearances, the California native has played some of his best golf this season at venues where fairway finders have often found success.
In the top half of the field in Driving Accuracy in each start this year, Spaun’s up-and-down iron play and putting makes him a perfect first round option. Finishing at 5-over in last year’s Valspar Championship, the 31-year-old opened with a 2-under 69, illustrating the wide range of outcomes possible on Thursday.
Vaughn Taylor +15000 at PointsBet (0.13 units):
Death, taxes, and play Taylor at the Copperhead Course. Through the litany of sponsors from Chrysler to Transitions, it has been Valspar which Taylor has grown the warmest to. Finishing in a tie for 18th in 2019 and a tie for sixth-place last season, the 46-year-old arrives this year very much under the radar.
Connecting on four straight weekend appearances to kick off his 2022, Taylor’s latest outing saw him find the top-10 at the Puerto Rico Open. Sneakily top-20 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 24 rounds, Taylor not only strikes his mid irons exceptionally well, but also his long irons. Signing for four under par rounds in last year’s championship, more of the same should be in store if the putter shows some promise.
Adam Long +20000 at DraftKings (0.10 units):
His iron play leaves plenty to be desired, but the rest of Long’s game appears to be in a comfy spot. Gaining strokes off-the-tee in 3-of-4 starts courtesy of pinpoint accuracy and around-the-green in five consecutive outings, the 34-year-old gets the job done in a different manner.
Lights out on the greens, if there is ever a day of the week to bank on Long to gain strokes on approach, it is Thursday. Posting positive figures in 4-of-6 measured first rounds, the higher rate of missed greens in regulation at Innisbrook may actually benefit him.
Kramer Hickok +20000 at DraftKings (0.10 units):
This number was surprising to see as Hickok was a lip-out away from grabbing a share of the first round lead at The PLAYERS Championship. Top-30 in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach, and Birdies or Better over his last 24 rounds, Hickok possesses the perfect statistical profile for the Copperhead Course.
While he has not found his footing on these putting surfaces, Hickok has found the weekend in his two previous appearances. Carding rounds of 67 in 2021 and 68 in 2019, this should be a spot where a historically strong around-the-green player returns to his baseline. Struggling in recent memory, if he does just that, Kramer will be out there and loving every minute of it in Round 1.
Round Leaders YTD: -4.83 units, -45.83%
Total YTD: +58.40 units, +83.40%
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