This week the PGA Tour heads to the iconic Quail Hollow for the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship. This will be Wells Fargo’s first time back to Quail Hollow after a year hiatus due to the course hosting last year’s Presidents Cup. Quail Hollow is a long 7,538-yard par 71 course. This course has been bested by golfers who are long off the tee and are great with their long irons. The fairways have widened, so the sprayers won’t be overly penalized for missing the fairways.
Wells Fargo is another designated event, but the world no. 1 and 2 golfers, Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler have decided to sit out this week. Leaving Rory McIlroy as the betting favorite. The pricing this week seems fair, but there are quite a few golfers I will be betting on this week.
Key Metrics Correlated to Success:
- Driving Distance
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Par 4: 450-500
- 3-Putt Avoid
- Proximity: 175-200
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- SG: Putting
Picks to Win the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship
Patrick Cantlay +1500
Patrick Cantlay is playing too good of golf not to be racking up the wins, and quite frankly, I’m getting sick of betting on him and him not hoisting the trophy at the end of the week. Yet, here I am again, ready for agony. Despite the frustration bettors have felt while betting on Cantlay, there’s no reason to ignore him this week.
Cantlay is fifth on my primary model, and he’s been in stellar form. He’s been in contention in his last five events and finished in the top 20 in each, with three being the top five. At the RBC Heritage, he had the lead on the back 9 on Sunday, but a few mistakes kept him from outlasting Matt Fitzpatrick and Jordan Spieth.
What’s been remarkable in his run is how well he’s played at the elevated events and majors. Rick Gehman of RickRunGood.com sent a chart that made me love Cantlay even more. Through the eight designated events, Cantlay is first in the fields in Strokes Gained in those events.
Cantlay is first in SG: OTT and 17th in driving distance. His prowess off the tee should help him at a course that is so demanding off the tee. As a special bonus, Cantlay will add Tiger Wood’s caddie Joe LaCava to the bag this week. It could be enough to push Cantlay over this week.
Jordan Spieth +2200
This week I put a major emphasis on driving prowess. While Jordan Spieth might not be the most accurate off the tee, there’s no denying how skilled he is. He’s long enough and hits the ball straight enough to cause problems for the field this week. He’s also quietly balled out over the course of the season. He has five top-five finishes in his last seven events, including a playoff loss at RBC Heritage and one of the low Sunday rounds at the Masters.
Spieth has been in contention in every tournament since March, and there’s nothing in his game that suggests that should stop any time soon. He’s putting the ball well, gaining upwards of +5 strokes in his last few rounds. He’s been dynamite on approach, and his mentality seems to have changed. He mentioned during an interview that he was taking golf too seriously. He would get upset at things and ultimately cost himself a chance at winning. His approach has changed. He reminded himself that golf is a game and it should be fun. It will be fun when we bet on Spieth; he wins this week.