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WWT Championship at Mayakoba: Grillo Worth Backing in Matchups

Emiliano Grillo

Emiliano Grillo

Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

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We have hit a bit of a rough patch over the last couple of weeks in the head-to-head matchup department, striking out on full-tournament plays. Blame the lack of strokes-gained data or myself, but we aren’t as far off as it may seem.

I like us to get back on track this week at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba as 132 players are set to venture down to Mexico. With past champions at El Camaleon Golf Course including players such as Viktor Hovland, Brendon Todd, Matt Kuchar, and Brian Gay, both short and long-hitters alike are capable of contending this week in Playa Del Carmen.

As keeping the ball in the fairway tends to take the front seat on this Greg Norman design. Hovering around 7,000 yards, this par-71 yields plenty of birdies and historically produces a winning score in the neighborhood of 20-under.

For our purposes, we will look to back strong ball-strikers as past editions of this tournament have proven on and around-the-green play is not all too difficult at Mayakoba. If this remains true once again, we should be set up to rebound nicely.

The oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have priced numerous head-to-head matchups ahead of tomorrow’s World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. Between the time zone difference and daylight savings taking place this weekend, my mental clock is all over the place, so be sure to place you wagers and set your DFS lineups in a timely manner.

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Head-to-Head Matchups (Odds Via PointsBet):

Emiliano Grillo (-120) over Brian Harman

When discussing ball-strikers, there are few better than the Argentine. Hoping his performance at Narashino Country Club was just a blip on the radar, Grillo should continue to thrive at El Camaleon. Making his sixth appearance this week, the 29-year-old possesses the fourth-best scoring average in the field on this Norman design.

Averaging 67.95 over 20 rounds, Grillo has three top-10 finishes under his belt. Clearly comfortable on and around these greens – his usual bugaboo – Grillo’s weakness has been lost in the mangroves of Mayakoba before.

While Grillo has found success at El Camaleon, Harman has not. Making his ninth start at Mayakoba, the former Georgia Bulldog has yet to capture a top-25 finish. This time around he arrives on the heels of some horrible performances to begin his 2021-2022 season. Missing the cut at the Shriners Children’s Open and struggling at The Summit Club, I wouldn’t be surprised if Harman has the weekend off.


Harold Varner III (-103) over Brendon Todd

Nappy factor is strong in this one as Varner and his wife welcomed Harold Varner IV into the world just about a month ago. In his first start back, the East Carolina product picked up where he left off, specifically from tee-to-green, posting +6.6 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green at The Summit Club.

If not for a poor week on the greens on the Tom Fazio design, Varner’s finish of T-32 likely would have been comparable to his previous results of T-11 and T-16 to begin the 2021-2022 season. Clearly playing some inspired golf, the 31-year-old now makes his way to Mayakoba for the sixth time in his career. With four made cuts, two of which went for top-10 finishes, Varner has proven he can play well at El Camaleon with or without accuracy off-the-tee.

He’ll be tested in this one as Todd has a victory and top-10 finish at El Camaleon over the last two seasons. He arrived in decent form en route to those quality results which is not necessarily the case this year. Finishing outside the top-60 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP and missing the cut at the Sanderson Farms Championship, Todd has been driving the ball poorly. He doesn’t have the leeway others have due to his lack of distance, so if he continues to find trouble with that club, he could be in for a short week.


Justin Thomas (+100) over Abraham Ancer

The steam on Ancer this week in undeniable as he has moved into the top spot on the odds board at PointsBet. Warranted? Sure, but both short-term and long-term metrics point to Thomas in this one for me. The highest ranked player in the field, the world No. 7 has been terrific from tee-to-green over a prolonged period of time.

Gaining substantial strokes in said category in each of his starts since the PGA Championship, the 28-year-old possesses an inherently high floor. With only two missed cuts all of last season, Thomas surprisingly did some of his best work where accuracy is required off-the-tee.

While some may be inclined to label Thomas as a bit “loose” off-the-tee – myself included – I can’t help but look at his performances at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook and of course TPC Sawgrass. Posting a combined +26.10 SG: Tee-to-Green in those two outings, El Camaleon should suit his eye. As it did last year, when Thomas opened with a round of 1-over 72 before playing his final 54-holes in 15-under and finishing in a tie for 12th.

Course history may be on Ancer’s side, as he has collected a couple of top-10 finishes and also finished in a tie for 12th last year alongside Thomas, but I can’t help but look at the current trend of his ball-striking. Regressing a touch to end last season and begin this season, the Mexican is becoming a bit more reliant on his flat stick. Not usually the case for the 30-year-old, if it continues this week, Thomas should be able to handle him as an underdog.

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