The first leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown, the Kentucky Derby is Saturday on NBC. Twenty horses will vie for the $3.1 million winner’s share of the $5 million purse.
The stakes will not be nearly as high for most bettors, but the range of emotions felt may be quite similar to those felt by each of the twenty trainers and owners for those two minutes.
What adds so much spice to the Run for the Roses is the fact that the favorite has won just 40 times since 1908. In fact, each of the last three years, the winner took home the prize at greater than 15-1 odds.
Journalism (7-2) is the favorite this year followed by Sandman (5-1), Render Judgment (12-1), American Promise (12-1), and Sovereignty (10-1). It is an easy case to make for each of these four thoroughbreds to win, but as already noted, the favorites cash less than 50% of the time in the Derby.
Expert Picks for the Kentucky Derby
So, which horses should the public focus on? We asked some of the experts at NBC Sports who they liked in the 151st Kentucky Derby.
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) likes the youngest and biggest horse in the field:
“It is rare to have a strong opinion about a race that is as wide open and unpredictable as the Kentucky Derby. This is undoubtedly a very strong field with a completely worthy favorite in Journalism, but I’ve been taken by the physically impressive American Promise (13-1), the Justify colt trained by D. Wayne Lukas. American Promise was a late foal and is just now maturing into the horse to beat for this race, in my opinion. His Virginia Derby romp was a sign of things to come, and I think he has an enormous run in him on Saturday to hold off this competitive field. Expecting American Promise (13-1) to be stalking a face pace through the opening half mile and be in ideal position to take the lead into the final turn and hoping his pedigree and recent development can help him hold on down the stretch. Hopeful that we get a price in the 15/1 range for this potential breakout superstar. Best of Luck!”
Al Bernstein (@AlBernstein) expects the winner of the Arkansas Derby to end up in the Winner’s Circle:
“Journalism (4-1) is the morning line favorite, and he is probably the fastest horse in the race. His stalking style, however, could see him either getting caught up in the pace or having front-runners backing up in his face in the late going. In my top five, I have four closers and Journalism, and I see the favorite getting caught at the wire. Any one of the closers in my top 5 would not surprise me if they won. That includes Publisher (30-1), who will be a big price and has never won a race. He might give Steve Asmussen his first Derby winner after going 0-for-26.”
Here is Bernstein’s Top 5:
1st: Sandman
2nd: Journalism
3rd: Sovereignty
4th: Burnham Square
5th: Publisher
Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) is also leaning to one of the favorites:
“I’ll keep it simple. I like Sovereignty (11-1). I am hoping for the pace to melt and then I think he is the clear strongest closer.”
Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas) likes the Ian Wilkes-trained horse with a Derby win in his bloodlines:
“While Journalism is the clear favorite with the best speed figures in the field, I’m trying to find a way to beat the favorite and get paid out generously if I do. Recently, speed has killed at Churchill. However, since 2014, the horse with the highest speed figures entering this race has only won three times. At +270 and probably closer to 3/2 by post time, Journalism may lose all its value.
There is a notion that with about seven early pace horses, you’d probably want to attack a late speed horse to chase them down. There are quite a few that have some value, but still not far enough down on the odds board for me.
I turn my attention to the gelding Burnham Square, the winner of the Blue Grass. Burnham Square (20-1) is one of eight horses in the field that have run on the Churchill dirt. Having broken his maiden in late December, Burnham Square has improved in every race. If this race has a ton of speed, why not back the horse who has improved his speed figures in three consecutive races?”
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) is looking further down the odds board for his pick in the Derby:
“In a race that sees longshots cash often and routinely the last handful of years, I’ll be the one to take the longshot. Flying Mohawk (35-1) is a horse that looks to be getting better with each start. I pause for a moment because the surface and the distance are something new for him, but I like how Beckman is handling this horse and bringing him along slowly. Flying Mohawk will show a late kick and prove worth the price of admission come Saturday.”
The difference of opinion among the experts at NBC Sports underlines the unpredictability of the Run for the Roses. This much we know: The 151st Kentucky Derby promises what it always delivers: a mix of a healthy dose of tradition, a little bit of chaos, and the greatest two minutes in sports. Enjoy the race this Saturday on NBC!
