NBC Sports is your hub for the 2021 Breeders’ Cup, which will take place from Nov. 5-6, culminating with the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic, which airs live on NBC. Find out more info here.
The Turf, which offers an eye-popping $4 million purse, has been a mainstay on the Breeders’ Cup program since the inaugural meeting in 1984 and has been won by equine greats such as Daylami (1999), Fantastic Light (2001) and Enable (2018), who was the first horse to win Europe’s most famous race, the Prix l’Arc de Triomphe, and the Turf in the same year.
Multiple victories for those European stars have contributed to an impressive tally for overseas raiders that currently stands at 23 wins, compared to just 15 for the home contingent. Since 2000, the international challengers have taken victory 16 times, with just five wins for US horses.
The 1½-mile trip on turf naturally favors European shippers and last year’s winner Tarnawa, who is back to repeat the feat at Del Mar after finishing second in the Arc, is part of another strong overseas challenge in this year’s field. Here we’ve taken a look at eight of the Turf’s key players, analyzing their past performances and chances in Saturday’s race, before offering our verdict on the contest.
Editor’s Note: United and Domestic Spending were scratched Thursday and as a result Bolshoi Ballet and Channel Maker are the two new horses added to the field. The new post positions as well as the prediction have been updated to reflect these changes.
Key contenders
Rockemperor (Post 1)
Trainer: Chad C. Brown
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Nation: USA
ML: 15-1
A reliable five-year-old who began his career in France with Simone Brogi before shipping Stateside to four-time Eclipse-winning trainer Chad Brown, for whom he has racked up a series of consistent Graded-placed efforts.
In his first two seasons for new connections, Rockemperor regularly hit the board but boasted a winless record from nine races and the jury was out on whether he had the necessary talent to strike in esteemed company.
But a first Grade 1 victory in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic last month proved he has the mettle and Javier Castellano, who rode him so brilliantly at Belmont Park, retains the ride. He’s drawn to skim the rail but will need luck in running given his deep-closing style.
Walton Street (Post 5)
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: James Doyle
Nation: UK
ML: 8-1
This relatively lightly raced veteran seems to be fulfilling his early promise and has achieved his greatest successes away from Charlie Appleby’s main base in England.
Boasting natural early speed, Walton Street almost put his name in the headlines with a determined fourth in the Group 1 Dubai Sheema Classic that was won by multiple top-level scorer Mishriff in March and shipped over to Canada for the Woodbine International last month for a five-and-a-half-length win.
Despite the status of that event, this year’s running of the Woodbine International lacked depth and he will be facing far tougher opposition here. Expect him to sit near the speed.
This chart shows how dominant European horses have been in the Breeders’ Cup Turf since 2000.
Sisfahan (Post 7)
Trainer: Henk Grewe
Jockey: Cristian Demuro
Nation: Germany
ML: 12-1
From the oldest to the youngest runner in the field - the German-trained three-year-old Sisfahan. A cheap $23,000 purchase, Sisfahan shot to prominence in his homeland with a decisive victory in the Group 1 German Derby at Hamburg in July and only found Torquator Tasso too strong at Baden-Baden on his penultimate start.
Related to several steeplechasers, Sisfahan doesn’t lack stamina but might be the slowest away from the gates and to gather stride in the opening furlong, which would present plenty of problems for rider Cristian Demuro, his Italian rider whose finest moment was winning the 2020 Arc on Sottsass.
Sisfahan’s victories have come on soft turf, so how he will handle firmer conditions is also a worry, but he is still improving and Germany has already pulled off one huge shock this season - Torquator Tasso, who beat Sisfahan at Baden-Baden, won the Arc at huge odds on his next start.
Yibir (Post 8)
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick
Nation: UK
ML: 12-1
Considered one of the best workhorses at Charlie Appleby’s Moulton Paddocks in Newmarket, Yibir’s tendency to race rank in the early stages without relaxing, no matter what the early fractions, led to disappointing results at the start of his three-year-old campaign.
However, he was gelded in May and produced a career-best off the layoff in the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy at Newbury, two starts before achieving greater heights when refitted with a hood in the prestigious Group 2 Great Voltigeur at York. His last-to-first racing style wouldn’t have been best suited to that venue but he won with an air of authority.
He raced lazily in the Jockey Club Derby, which was run over the Turf trip at Belmont Park in September, on his first foray to these shores but blew his field away in deep stretch with an impressive kick and will look to adopt similar tactics. This is a deeper field, though, and he may need to show more tactical speed to become a player.
Gufo (Post 11)
Trainer: Christophe Clement
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Nation: USA
ML: 8-1
There won’t be too many horses finishing faster than Gufo should he revert to deep-closing tactics after an aggressive ride by Joel Rosario in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch at Belmont Park last month.
A mid-race move off slow fractions resulted in the Christophe Clement-trained router hitting the front far earlier than ever before, and he paid for those exertions by fading into third behind the efficiently ridden Rockemperor.
His ability is better judged on prior successes in the Sword Dancer and Grand Couturier Stakes, and his sole trip to Del Mar resulted in a third-placed finish behind Domestic Spending in last year’s Hollywood Derby. He may struggle to better that form if there isn’t a pace collapse.
Teona (Post 10)
Trainer: Roger Varian
Jockey: David Egan
Nation: UK
ML: 6-1
Beautifully bred filly who will be ridden by David Egan, participating at his first Breeders’ Cup having won the world’s richest race, the $20 million Saudi Cup, earlier this year. Trainer Roger Varian, who won the 2012 Flower Bowl Stakes at Saratoga with Nahrain and 2018 E.P. Taylor with Sheikha Reika, has more experience in Grade 1 contests on this side of the Atlantic.
Teona broke her maiden on Tapeta at Newcastle last November and has been ambitiously campaigned this year. She didn’t fire on soft ground in the Epsom Oaks but broke through in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille, beating 1-5 favourite Snowfall by a length and a half.
Connections decided to skip the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe to run in the Turf, in which she should be favoured by quicker early fractions than she has chased in Europe. Fillies have won this race twice in the last three years and Teona has a solid chance of enhancing that record.
Tarnawa (Post 11)
Trainer: Dermot Weld
Jockey: Colin Keane
Nation: Ireland
ML: 9-5
Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf champion is back in an attempt to retain her crown and become just the third horse in history to win back-to-back editions of the 1 ½ mile showpiece event.
There weren’t many winners as impressive as Tarnawa during the 2020 Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland. She stumbled coming out of the gate and was forced wide rounding the final bend but still had the kick to run down pacesetter Channel Maker and deny the rallying Magical by a length.
Del Mar represents a different challenge and she has been slow from the gates on her last two starts, but Tarnawa is a bigger and stronger mare as a five-year-old and ran brilliantly to take second after a luckless trip in the Arc last month. Post position 11 presents a challenge, but she will relish the firm track and is the horse to beat.
Bolshoi Ballet (Post 13)
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Nation: Ireland
Bolshoi Ballet went off favorite for this year’s Derby at Epsom having impressed with two prep-race wins. That didn’t go according to the script, with Aidan O’Brien’s colt managing to finish only seventh of the 11 runners, but he bounced back with victory in another ‘Derby’, the Belmont version, a 1 ¼-mile Grade 1 in the summer.
He helped to force too fast a pace before fading into fourth at Saratoga next time, so that was by no means a bad run in the circumstances. However, he failed to fire when returned to Belmont on his latest start, finishing only fourth behind Yibir.
He therefore enters this race once more needing to rediscover his sparkle. And this probably also calls for a career-best.
It’s worth noting he’s been the subject of some positive quotes from O’Brien this week but even so he’s hard to pick on top, with a wide post no help to his cause.
Channel Maker (Post 14)
Trainer: William I. Mott
Jockey: Luis Saez
Nation: USA
This streetwise veteran was a front-running third behind Tarnawa at odds of 9-1 in this contest at Keeneland last year.
However, he’s been struggling for form more recently and this running has a more competitive early pace scenario than he faced 12 months ago.
Factor in also that he must overcome the widest post, and it seems he’ll do well to hit the board again this time.
Turf trends
There have only been six US-trained winners of the Turf since the turn of the century, two of which were European imports and another, Johar, shared the prize in a dead-heat with a European in 2003. A mixture of stamina and tactical speed is paramount, with the latter of added importance on the tight Del Mar turf track.
The first three home in the 2017 Turf - the only time it has been run at this track - were positioned in the top five places from the outset and eventual winner, Talismanic, broke from post position one. Four-year-olds have won four of the last five runnings of the Turf.
Verdict
Tarnawa is the class performer in the race, but how will post 11 affect her positioning in the early stages? A slow break would force Colin Keane to adopt patient tactics similar to those that proved profitable last year, but that would put her on the backfoot around this tighter venue.
She’s the morning line chalk for a reason but will require luck, as will the deep-closing Gufo under Joel Rosario and the Aidan O’Brien-trained pair Broome and Japan, who have been luckless with the draw.
Yibir and Walton Street provide Charlie Appleby, who has had an exceptional year with his US shippers, with a strong hand, while New York champion Rockemperor shouldn’t be dismissed from the inside post.
Prediction
1. Tarnawa (11)
2. Sisfahan (7)
3. Yibir (8)
