Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s betting the Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins rubber match.
Marlins (+120) at Diamondbacks (-140): O/U 8.5
Miami and Arizona meet for the third meeting of the series, a rubber match with a lot on the line.
Miami is 8-10 on the road this season but 18-19 overall, so a win here could can get the Marlins to .500. Miami has lost six of the last eight games to drop from 16-11 to 18-19.
For Arizona, the DBacks are 11-8 at home and 20-16 overall, which is 0.5 game back of the Dodgers for first-place in the NL West. This is a big game for the DBacks and they are 4-2 in the last six games and haven’t lost back-to-back games in that short span.
Merrill Kelly has been phenomenal in his past two games and will pitch for Arizona. The 34-year-old has gone 13.0 combined innings against the Nationals and Rockies recording 15 strikeouts to two walks, along with two earned runs on 10 hits allowed.
Arizona won those two games and in the four games he has pitched that the DBacks won, Kelly permitted one earned run or less.
Edward Cabrera takes the mound for Miami and he’s never faced any of the DBacks hitters compared to Kelly who has 38 plate appearances versus 13 different Marlins’ hitters.
Miami is hitting .237 on the road (20th) with 68 runs (T-24th) over 18 road games this season (3.7 runs per game).
Over the past seven games, the Marlins are hitting .239 (21st) with 19 runs scored (T-22nd) over six games (3.1 runs per game), so similar numbers, but nothing impressive.
Give me Arizona on the ML at -140 odds out to -150. I expect good times to roll for Kelly and the DBacks.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (1u)
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