Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bet in the Los Angeles Angels and Miami Marlins duel, including a Shohei Ohtani player prop.
Shohei Ohtani O/U 7.5 Strikeouts vs. Marlins
It’s Shohei Ohtani day as the Los Angeles Angels look to avenge yesterday’s home loss to the Miami Marlins.
With the Angels losing yesterday, a trend is activated for this start. Los Angeles is 6-0 this season and 15-3 in Ohtani’s last 18 starts when the Angels are coming off a loss, which makes him the most profitable pitcher in the league for that trend.
In one career pitching meeting against Miami (last year), Ohtani recorded 10 strikeouts over 7.0 innings pitched with two hits allowed and three walks (one run). Against nine current Marlins hitters, Ohtani has a 30.6 K% and .233 OBA over 49 plate appearances, so very positive numbers.
Over Ohtani’s last start versus the Twins, he went 6.0 innings and permitted one earned run on two hits, along with nine strikeouts and three walks. In the previous four games prior to the Twins matchup, Ohtani allowed 17 earned runs and had 33 strikeouts to 7 walks in that span.
Ohtani bounced back versus the Twins and he has been terrific in home games (2.45 ERA, .131 OBA) and night games (2.77 ERA, .150 OBA). Ohtani is 6-4 to the Over 7.5 Strikeouts this season (60%) and 3-2 to the Over at home, so I like the chances he goes Over yet again.
Give me Ohtani Over 7.5 Strikeouts at +105 odds on BetMGM and would go out to -115 for this prop. You can go Ohtani 7+ strikeouts and the Angels ML for +100 on FanDuel if you want to shave a strikeout.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 7.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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