The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards.
Garrett Richards O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Blue Jays
This will be the sixth time on the season that the Toronto Blue Jays meet Garrett Richards, which has got to be tiring for Richards.
The good news (kinda), he is on the brink of being knocked out of the starting rotation after every start, so this could be his last time seeing Toronto. There are only a few times left to try and squeeze some plus +100 or better type of money out of Richards.
In his five starts versus Toronto this season, Richards owns a 6.15 ERA, .321 OBA and 17 strikeouts in 26.1 innings for a 0.65 K per inning average.
Richards recorded three or fewer strikeouts in three out of the five meetings and five apiece in the two Overs.
His 34 hits allowed versus Toronto are almost double what his next opponent has done for the year versus Boston with Richards on the mound (Baltimore, 18).
Seeing Toronto again could be troublesome as they have figured him out by now. Over the last four games entering this start, Richards is struggling.
Looking at his spin rate, June and July have seen a sharp decrease despite his fastball spin and curveball spin ranking in the 93rd and 99th percentile, per baseballsavant.com.
Richards saw the Blue Jays three times in June and July, marking his third, fourth and fifth starts against Toronto. In the third meeting, his RPM was 2746.
However, in the fourth start, that dropped to 2259 and 2402 RPM in the fifth meeting. Although Richards hit the Over versus Detroit with five strikeouts, his spin rate of 2329 RPM was his third-lowest output of the season.
Over the last four starts entering this one, Richards owns a 6.75 ERA, .308 OBA and has 16 strikeouts in 18.2 innings pitched against the Phillies, Tigers and Blue Jays (twice).
In the previous two starts (DET, TOR), Richards has a 7.88 ERA, .371 OBA and seven strikeouts in 8.0 innings.
As you can tell by now, Richards has been hit around. He allowed 29 hits and 16 earned runs over his last five games, along with six homers in the past three. That is troublesome against Toronto.
The Blue Jays’ offense should be ready to rock and roll. Over the last eight games, Toronto is hitting .262 (9th) and top 11 in OBP, OPS and SLG. They have 54 strikeouts in eight games (6.7 per game) and 39 runs scored (4.8 per game), plus nine homers in that span.
Not including Robbie Ray, Toronto has 21 strikeouts in 133 plate appearances (15.7%), plus a .288 BA, .797 OPS and 39 hits for 16 RBIs versus Richards.
Over his entire career, Richards has a 1.55 K/BB ratio and .306 OBA to Toronto (13 games). That number should not get better after today.
Back Richards to go Under his strikeout total versus the Blue Jays.
I would play this at 3.5 out to -130 but prefer the +100 to -110 range. I would grab the 4.5 at whatever odds if you have it available.
Pick: Garrett Richards Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code SAVE10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
[[ad:athena]]
Madison Bumgarner O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Padres
Going after another veteran pitcher, I have to target Arizona’s Madison Bumgarner again.
Since coming back on July 16th (four starts), he has not been himself. With a season pretty much forgotten and this being another road game for the DBacks (14-42), I do not anticipate seeing many more starts from MadBum.
In the last four starts, Bumgarner has 15 strikeouts in 25.0 innings pitched for a 0.60 K per inning average.
He has gone at least 5.0 innings in all four games. Against the Padres, between 5.0 and 6.0 innings should be where he ends his night if most goes well.
This meeting will be Bumgarner’s 40th game versus San Diego, the most of all opponents breaking a tie with Colorado. He owns a 3.79 ERA over 242.0 innings and 243 strikeouts in those games.
Bumgarner met the Padres in the season-opener and lasted 4.0 innings and 91 pitches, allowing six earned runs on seven hits with three walks. That was his only meeting with San Diego.
It has been a long season since then, but the Padres offense has been seeing the ball well leading up to this matchup.
San Diego ranks fourth in batting average over the past week (.290). In the previous five games, the Padres have 50 strikeouts (10.0 per game), rank top 10 in OBP, OPS and SLG, plus 31 runs scored (6.2 per game).
In the past 12 games (two weeks), San Diego has 113 strikeouts in 12 games (9.4 per game) and hits .259 with 57 runs scored (4.7 per game).
The Padres current hitters have played Bumgarner enough to continue his fade tour.
Since Bumgarner’s return from injury, his spin rate has reached season lows, per baseballsavant.com. His previous start versus San Francisco resulted in 7.0 innings but a 2099 RPM -- his worst of the year.
San Diego could have a field day at home versus Arizona. This matchup will be a 1:10 first pitch for the West Coast people (4:10 ET), making this a day start for Bumgarner.
He has only started five day games this season, and the numbers scream Under.
Bumgarner owns a 1-1 record, 7.36 ERA, .337 OBA and 16 strikeouts in 22.0 innings pitched with 32 hits during the day.
Slam Diego could be calling. Five of the past 10 starting pitchers to face the Padres have recorded four or fewer strikeouts.
Since the All-Star break, 11 out of 19 went Under 4.5 Ks (57.8%) with 12 going Under six (63.8%).
Back Bumgarner to go Under his strikeout total versus the Padres.
If you have 5.5 strikeout prop, this could be the last time you see that number all year. I would play this down to 4.5 out to -130 odds, although I prefer the +100 I grabbed.
Pick: Madison Bumgarner Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Patrick Corbin Under 4.5 strikeouts at +105 for 1u was a late add -- follow @vmoneysports on Twitter for more on that pick.
1u
— Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) August 8, 2021
Patrick Corbin vs Braves
Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Just moved to -102/-105
Under is 8-2 on road
1-5 road record, 6.23 ERA, .284 OBA
0.69 K/per inning
4 Ks in 5.1 IP vs ATL this Szn
K% in 13th percentile, xwOBA 📉
11 straight LHP hit U 4.5 vs ATL
LHP 13-3 U 4.5 since June pic.twitter.com/v6srvrdH0v
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
