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We’ve got a short slate of baseball to bet on Thursday and I’ve picked out two late games which I’m seeing plenty of value in. Let’s get to them.
Minnesota Twins (+120) vs. New York Yankees (-140) Total: 6.5
When the Yankees are -140 or shorter this season, they’re 19-16 on the moneyline. On top of this, when playing the Twins in the last four seasons, they’re 17-5, with 10 wins in their last 11 tries against Minnesota.
There just seems to be something about this franchise that brings out the best in the Yankees, and the worst in the Twins. Considering Minnesota’s 15th-ranked wRC+ in the last two weeks, I’m not quite sure this team is able to turn it around.
Nestor Cortes remains a solid pitcher, and after a 3.33 ERA in August we can expect some good things from him now that he’s back off the injured list. Minnesota is just 14th in wRC+ to lefties and this is one of the best in the big leagues. On the other hand, the Yankees’ walk rate sits above 10% and they’re starting to put together some good at-bats. I think they take this behind their All-Star southpaw.
Edge: Yankees -140
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Chicago White Sox (-195) vs. Oakland A’s (+165) Total: 7
One of my favorite figures I’ve found on our NBC Sports EDGE Finder is that when the White Sox have Dylan Cease pitching in the last two seasons, and they’ve been favored at -195 or heavier, they’re 10-2. Better than this, the under is 10-2 in these starts for a profit of almost eight units.
The White Sox have fallen on tough times at the plate with some middling numbers in the last week, and while they’re been great against lefties JP Sears has proven to have some talent with a 2.37 ERA in 22 innings. The sample size is small, but he’s effectively pitched to contact thus far.
More than this, Cease is an extreme strikeout pitcher going against an A’s team with a strikeout rate over 27% in the last week of play. This is a huge mismatch and I love getting plus money on this bet.
Edge: Under 7.5
