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MLB K Props, October 30th: Astros vs Braves: Greinke vs Smyly

Zack Greinke

Zack Greinke

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

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Zack Greinke O/U 1.5 Strikeouts vs. Braves

This is going to be fun. Zack Greinke Over or Under one strikeout?

I bet his Under 2.5 strikeouts in confidence before, but betting Under 1.5 strikeouts? Nope. Can’t do it.

Greinke has never faced any of the Braves hitters. None over his entire career. At age 38, Greinke started 27 games during the regular season and had two or more strikeouts in 25 (92.5%) in 2021.

During the 2021 postseason, Greinke has a 7,71 ERA over 2.1 innings, one start and one relief.

In his only start at Fenway (Boston), Greinke lasted 1.1 innings (37 pitches), walked three and allowed two earned runs with no strikeouts. To his credit, Boston was the last team he should have taken the mound against (they were raking).

His numbers sucked the last two appearances, but Atlanta has struck out a ton lately, leaving the door open. Three of the last four starting pitchers have six or more Ks against the Braves.

Out of 13 starting pitchers, 12 have recorded at least two strikeouts (92.3%) against Atlanta this postseason, per statmuse.

The Dodgers’ Joe Kelly was the only pitcher who did not, and he only lasted 0.2 innings -- I don’t see that happening to Greinke.



Despite the scaries, let’s play the Over and buckle in for what should be a 3.0-4.0 inning appearance from Greinke.

Greinke has pitched in plenty of big moments of his lengthy career.

This will be his 22nd postseason appearance overall and third start in the World Series. He started Game 3 and Game 7 of the 2019 World Series against the Nationals.

NBC’s player prop model projects 2.8 strikeouts from Greinke and 3.0 innings pitched. When Greinke pitched between 1.0 and 4.0 innings this season, he is 8-3 to the Over 1.5 strikeouts (72.7%).

The line show below is the projection for 2.8 strikeouts, not the 1.5 prop line.



Greinke is not being asked to go 6.0-plus innings, just to do his job -- and a few strikeouts could be part of the job description. Back the Over 1.5 Ks and buckle in.

Pick: Zack Greinke Over 1.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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