MLB K Props, September 7th: Aaron Nola, Logan Gilbert, Adrian Sampson
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Logan Gilbert O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Astros
Logan Gilbert will take the mound for the third time this season against the Houston Astros and third time in the last four games!
There is an extra emphasis on this start since the Yusei Kikuchi was rocked last night and left after 1.2 innings. While the normal four relief pitchers were used, Gilbert will be asked to go 5.0 or 6.0 innings due to the amount of pitches or innings each of them went.
Gilbert needed 94 pitches in both games in two previous starts versus Houston to get through 4.2 and 5.0 innings. He ended the first meeting with five strikeouts but allowed eight hits, nine earned runs and two homers.
Over the second meeting, which came on Wednesday (9/1), Gilbert went a clean 5.0 innings with four hits and four strikeouts to no earned runs.
He barely hit the Over getting rocked and he just hit the Under pitching what could be considered a 5.0 inning gem against Houston. Confusing times we live in.
The last five starting RHP, including Gilbert, hit the Under 4.5 strikeouts against Houston, per statmuse.
I have a feeling Gilbert will do it again. Seven of the last 10 RHP hit at least four strikeouts, but there’s more.
On the season, Gilbert is 4-4 (50%) to the Over when he pitches 4.0 or fewer innings compared to 11-1 (92%) at 4.1 innings or more, per NBC’s player prop model.
The only loss at 5.0 innings or more was to the Astros in the previous start.
Gilbert has nine strikeouts in 9.2 innings pitched and will need 5.0-plus innings to hit the Over here, something only six of the last 12 RHP have been able to do. Gilbert should be able to sniff six as Chris Paddack did 6.0 innings last.
I grabbed this at +105 odds and would not play past -125.
Pick: Logan Gilbert Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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Aaron Nola O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Brewers
Aaron Nola has been on and off for quite some time but tonight is a night I am willing to back him to be on his game.
The Phillies are hot, winning eight of the last 10 games and racing for a playoff spot. Philly has won Nola’s last two starts and he posted five and seven strikeouts in those games.
This matchup will be his second start of the year versus the Brewers. In the first, Nola posted 10 strikeouts in 6.0 innings, but will face a slightly different lineup.
Over the last six games, the Brewers have the third-most strikeouts in the league with 68. In that same span, they are hitting .254 (16th) with 20 runs (T-23rd).
Nola will meet some new faces, which gives me the confidence he can get six strikeouts tonight.
The last three names are all top seven on the Brewers in strikeouts this past week, along with Christian Yelich.
This being an NL game means he will also face Eric Lauer, who should strikeout at least once.
NBC’s model projects Nola to record 7.3 strikeouts in 6.1 innings pitched, hitting the Over.
Nola has hit the Over 18 out of 27 times (67%) and six of the last 10 (60%) and a little over 50% on the road this season.
In the last 30 days, he has a 1.88 OBA with 34 strikeouts in 26.1 innings pitched for 1.30 Ks per inning.
This seems like one strikeout too low and if Nola gets through 5.0 innings, I like the chances he can ring up six or more. I grabbed this at -150 odds and would not play it any further.
Pick: Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Adrian Sampson O/U 2.5 Strikeouts vs. Reds
Adrian Sampson made one start all season and it came against the Reds (8/18), so it’s only right he faces them twice for his only two starts.
Sampson struck out two hitters over 4.0 innings and 69 pitches versus Cincy, the highest of the season for innings pitched and pitch count.
Since then, he has pitched in four relief appearances totaling 7.1 innings and nine strikeouts.
However, those nine strikeouts have come against players like Colin Moran (2), Mitch Keller (1), William Difo (1), Elias Diaz (1), Brendan Rodgers (1), Ryan McMahon (1), Sam Hilliard (1) and Carlos Hernandez (1).
That is not an impressive list. Sampson caught the Rockies on the road in a 9-9 game in the eighth inning. Sampson also had one combined strikeout against the Royals and White Sox.
His two Overs came against the Pirates and Rockies in relief.
NBC’s model projects Sampson at 3.3 strikeouts in 4.1 innings pitched. He averages 2.2 strikeouts per game on the season and had two versus the Reds in his only start.
Sampson should have his work cut out for him and I do not expect him to pitch past five innings.
Four of the last 11 RHP went Under 2.5 strikeouts against the Reds and only one of the last four surpassed 5.0 innings, per statmuse. Six pitchers, including Sampson hit three or fewer strikeouts out of the last 12 RHP.
When you look at the list, there are some impressive pitchers that went Over, while the guys hovering around 3-4 Ks are your average or below starter.
It’s also worth noting no one on the Reds has more than six strikeouts in the last seven days (six games). Sampson also struggles versus lefties and Cincy is stacking six of them in the lineup, including Wade Miley.
Miley is one of the better pitchers in baseball at avoiding strikeouts. He sits at 13 Ks in 50 at-bats. Sampson’s OBA versus LHP is .286 and OPS .905 compared to .182 OBA and .515 OPS in one less at-bat.
The Reds are hitting .275 (9th) and have a .822 OPS (8th) over the last week, so this could be rough and 3.0 innings or quicker type of appearance from Sampson.
Back Sampson to go Under his strikeout total of 2.5 and play it out to -110 odds. I bought in at +110.
If this was 3.5 strikeout line, this would be a one-unit play and I had to pay for Nola, so I will throw a half-unit here.
Pick: Adrian Sampson Under 2.5 Strikeouts (0.5u)
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