MLB picks for today
Cleveland vs Pittsburgh Pirates
I’ve got a fever. And the only prescription is more cowbell. Well, not really. The real prescription is Under first five inning bets in Shane Bieber starts. Bieber Fever is back as Cleveland visits the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Bieber Fever, like deGrom Day before it, is profitable for two reasons. One: Bieber is awesome. And two: Cleveland can’t hit worth a damn.
This trend came about last year, but Bieber has taken his game to a new level in 2020. The right-hander has looked unhittable at times this season, pitching to a 1.30 ERA, a 0.72 WHIP and limiting opponents to a .160 batting average. Add in a Cleveland lineup that ranks 29th in OPS and dead last in average and runs per game, and you have a perfect recipe for a first five inning Under.
It doesn’t hurt that Trevor Williams takes the ball for the Buccos in this one. The right-hander has been solid this season, recording a 3.98 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in four starts this season. So, there’s no reason to think Bieber Fever can’t improve to 6-0 this year.
PREDICTION: Under 4.0 First 5 Innings (-105)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners
Clayton Kershaw’s velocity is up and as a result, he, for the most part, looks like the Clayton Kershaw we’ve been used to seeing over the years. Last time out he led the Dodgers to a 7-4 win over the Los Angeles Angels, with the only run (and hit) he allowed was an Anthony Rendon home run. Otherwise, he cruised for seven innings, striking out six and he should find more success Thursday against Seattle.
The Mariners have struggled at the plate all season long, ranking 26th in batting average and OPS and 27th in runs per game. And they have been really baffled by southpaws, hitting just .173 against left-handers this season.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, continue to rake on the road, averaging 5.8 runs per game away from home. Their stacked lineup is firing on all cylinders, ranking in the Top 5 in runs per game and OPS. As a result, the Dodgers have been a great road bet, winning 10 of their 13 road games and covering the runline in all 10 wins.
With Yusei Kikuchi starting and a Seattle toting a bullpen with more holes than a sinking ship, the Dodgers are a good bet to keep rolling on the road.
PREDICTION: Dodgers -1.5 (-144)
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Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
Teammates Sonny Gray and Trevor Bauer are seemingly having this amazing “anything you can do, I can do better” competition this season — and it’s Gray turn on Thursday.
The right-hander has looked awesome in 2020, pitching to a 2.05 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP while racking up 45 punchouts in 30 2-3 innings. And next up for Gray is a rusty Cardinals team that is still trying to find its footing after missing a ton of games due to a COVID-19 outbreak.
The Cardinals are hitting just .232 against right-handers in their limited games this season and rank 24th in the Bigs in OPS. Most importantly, they are striking out just over nine times per game.
St. Louis also struggled against Gray in 2019, his first season in Cincy. In three starts against the Cards he pitched to a 1.08 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and limited them to a .155 batting average, while striking out 19 in 16 2-3 innings.
While the Cards hand the ball to a rejuvenated-looking Adam Wainwright, the Reds are still a good bet to have the lead through five innings.
PREDICTION: Reds -0.5 First 5 Innings (-104)
Yesterday’s MLB record: 2-1
Season MLB betting record: 48-34, +11.94 units
MLB betting card for August 20
- CLE-PIT Under 4.0 First 5 Innings (-105)
- Dodgers -1.5 (-144)
- Reds -0.5 First 5 Innings (-104)
