We’re around a quarter of the way through the MLB season, so it seems like a great time to break down the most profitable spots in the early going. From fading the Rockies on the road to backing the Giants on a nightly basis, there have been some clear favorite teams of bettors. Without further ado, let me break a few down for you.
Fading the Rockies away from Coors Field
It’s no secret that the Rockies are a considerably worse team when they don’t have the luxury of playing at home in the hitter-friendly Coors Field. Going back season after season, the Rockies continually rank near the bottom of the league under the road split, but this season might be a new low.
Colorado has just a 59 wRC+ in its road games, which is last in the league by a considerable margin within the split. For context, a league-average offense would be at 100, which is a far way away. It’s the main reason their team has gone just 2-17 on the road, and why bettors continue to flock to Rockies games away from Coors.
Using our EDGE Finder, a $100 bettor would be up $733 if they faded the Rockies in each road game, which is a considerable ROI. On the flip side, if you backed the Rockies on the moneyline in each of the 19 road games they played, you’d be down 13.95 units, which is far and away the worst mark in baseball.
The Rockies’ foil in this department would be the Tampa Bay Rays, who have gone 15-7 on the road and returned $808 in profit for a $100 bettor.
Backing the San Francisco Giants
The Giants have been the story of the season so far, running out to a 27-16 record. With the record has come one of the most profitable betting trends in 2021. A moneyline bet on the Giants every game this year would have you up 9.02 units, which is a considerable amount when you consider the next-best team to take on the moneyline has been the Blue Jays, who have returned 6.34 units. Considering how long it took for oddsmakers to believe in San Francisco, it makes total sense that they’d return this kind of number. You’ve been able to get the Giants as underdogs or short home favorites plenty of times this season.
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After the Jays come the Red Sox and Athletics, who have been the third and fourth most-profitable teams to bet on according to our EDGE Finder. All told, though, there are just 12 teams that would have you up money if you took them to win every game.
Reds Totals in the Green
Though things haven’t been going so well lately for the Reds, they can still hang their hats on the start they had at the plate. Cincinnati has posted the sixth-best wRC+ in the early going, behind a .750 OPS and superb .176 Isolated Power. The reason why they haven’t won many games, though, comes from issues on the mound.
The Reds’ staff ERA ranks the second-worst in baseball entering Thursday, sitting at 4.79. The once-promising Luis Castillo has slipped into what’s been a career-worst year to this point, and Tyler Mahle has lacked the consistency many in Cincinnati have hoped he’d find by now. In addition to this, the team’s dealing with a big injury to Michael Lorenzen, and they miss him in that bullpen. Amir Garrett was once a favorite for the closer’s job, but is now lucky to get out of an inning unscathed. Simply put, it’s been difficult keeping opposing teams off the board.
Because of this, the Reds have been a goldmine for Over bettors. The Over has gone 27-13-2 this season in all of Cincinnati’s games, and a $100 bettor would be up $1,155 if they targeted the total every time the Reds took the field. It’s been one of the best spots to bet in baseball.
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